Accepted Papers - 3.pdf - UNESCO

end of 80’s building of Roghun’s HPS was started
with volume of reservoir more than 13 km 3 and a
number of other HPS with reservoirs.
Arising now in the world ideas practically
synonymously value possible in perspective changes
of climate. It is connected with degradation of
glaciers, drying up of Aral Sea and forming of salt
winds, spreading right up to Pamir’s mountains
cutting off woods, erosion of river banks etc. In this
case the valuation hesitates from moderate –
pessimistic up to apocalyptic.
Unfortunately all these are weakly confirmed
by actual materials. The systematical observations
on glaciers in republic are not carried out since 1986
yet and as it is shown above the point of view about
their sharp restriction are not based enough. There
is not any data on salt wind. The connection of
another analogical factor with climate is not
unambiguous.
change of temperature, 0 С
scenario 1
scenario 3
1
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
In these conditions it is necessary use of many
– factor mathematical models for obtaining
objective and reliable valuation of climate changes.
We have for models scenarios of climate change
now developed by west specialists: 1. CCC – EQ;
2. UK – TR; 3. GFDL – model of geophysical hydro
dynamic laboratory of USA; 4. Had CM2 – model
of United Kingdom.
All these are based on accounting of emission
influence of green gases and gives valuation of
climate change on main parameters – temperature
of surrounds and atmosphere precipitation to the
end of 50 – year’s period. Their very big difference
from each other can be noted.
In general view matrix of climate change on all
four scenarios as a whole for republic, but for
difference periods of year is sown in table 1 and
fig. 1.
Matrixes have analogical view for other zones of
Table 1. Matrix of climate change for different scenarios
Scenario Change of temperatures Change of precipitation
year winter summer year winter summer
1 2,6 3,0 2,3 -4,0 1,0 -8,9
2 2,5 2,5 2,5 4,8 2,1 7,6
3 2,0 1,9 2,1 -1,9 2,4 -6,3
4 1,9 1,8 1,9 17,1 16,0 18,2
scenario 2
0
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
change of quantity raining, mm/year
Fig. 1 : Diapason of the climate changes on various scenarios
467
scenario 4