Review of 2008 Ten-Year Site Plans - Public Service Commission

3. ENERGY DEMAND
A utility’s load and energy forecasts serve as the starting point for determining the timing and
size of new capacity additions needed to reliably serve load. The first step toward building an energy
efficient Florida begins with minimizing the load and energy requirements which the utilities must
meet. Reduced load and energy requirements are essential in reducing the burning of fossil fuels and
deferring the need for additional generating capacity. Historical data forms the foundation for utility
load and energy forecasts. These data take into account energy usage patterns, trends in population
growth, demographics, weather data for the utility's service territory, appliance-specific saturation, and
energy consumption characteristics.
Florida’s electrical demand and energy requirements are somewhat unique due to the fact that
the customer base is heavily weighted toward residential customers. As shown in Table 2 below,
residential customers make up nearly 89 percent of Florida’s electric customers, and they purchase
more than 50 percent of the state’s electric energy. Therefore, residential customers have the greatest
influence over the state’s load and energy forecasts.
Table 2. Characteristics of Florida’s Electric Customers (2007 Actual)
Customer Class Number of Customers % of Customers Energy Sales (GWh) % of Sales
Residential 8,318,132 088.6 116,132 052.3
Commercial 1,029,331 011.0 082,758 037.3
Industrial 0,035,733 000.4 023,107 010.4
Total 9,383,196 100.0 221,997 100.0
Load and Energy Forecasts
Utility projections indicate that both the summer and the winter peak demand will increase
approximately 10,000 MW over the planning period. The utilities’ current summer peak demand
forecast, however, is an average of nearly 800 MW lower than last year’s forecast for the same years
(2008-2016). Similarly, winter peak demand forecasts are an average of more than 1,100 MW lower
than last year’s forecasts. Such a trend can be attributed primarily to a decrease in the economy and a
slowing state population growth. Figure 2 on the following page illustrates the decrease in load
projection and the total peak demand projections over the planning period. The effects of the
decreased peak demand forecasts with respect to utility generation are discussed in Chapter 4.
Review of 2008 Ten-Year Site Plans - 8 -