Technology Roadmap - International Energy Agency

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Technology Roadmap
China Wind Energy Development 能源研究所 Roadmap 2050
Energy Research Institute
能源研究所
Energy Research Institute
2050
Summary
October 2011

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Copyright © 2011
OECD/International Energy Agency
ABOUT ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ERI)
The Energy Research Institute (ERI) of the National
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
of P.R. China is a leading national think tank,
focusing on energy policy research. ERI engages
itself in broad range of research areas, including
macro energy economic and energy planning,
energy technology policy, energy demand and
supply forecast, energy security, energy and
environment, energy efficiency and conservation,
and renewable energy. ERI provides strong
support to the government of China regarding
energy development strategies, planning, policy,
laws and standards.
At the same time, ERI has established a broad
and well functioning partnership and conducts
joint research studies and consulting services
with international agencies, organizations and
academic entities, including the International
Energy Agency (IEA), United Nation Development
Programme (UNDP), World Bank (WB), Global
Environmental Facility (GEF) as well with other
institutes from USA, EU, Japan, Russia, and India.
This paper reflects the views of the authors and does not necessarily reflect those of the IEA Secretariat, IEA Member countries or the
funders. The roadmap does not constitute professional advice on any specific issue or situation. ERI and the IEA make no representation
or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the roadmap’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not be
responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the roadmap. For further information, please contact: technologyroadmapscontact@iea.org.
No reproduction or translation of this publication, or any portion thereof, may be made without
prior written permission. Applications should be sent to: rights@iea.org
The China Wind Energy Development Roadmap was prepared by a team of China Experts under the lead
of National Development and Reform Commission’s Energy Research Institute (NDRC ERI), with the close
technical support of the International Energy Agency (IEA). This report provides a summary of the Chinese
version of the roadmap. An English version of the full report will be released later this year.
Thanks are given to the British Embassy Beijing and the Sino-Danish Renewable Energy Development
Programme for funding provided for this roadmap.

English summary
Energy demand in China is growing to keep pace
with rapid economic and social development. In
2020, it is expected to reach 4.5 to 5 billion tonnes of
coal equivalent (tce) per annum, rising to 6.5 billion
tce per annum in 2050. Electricity demand growth is
likely English to rise even summary more steeply, reaching 8 000 TWh
in 2020, 10 000 TWh in 2030, and 13 000 TWh in
Energy demand in China is growing to
2050, up from 4 200 TWh in 2010.
The development. Chinese government In 2020, has it proposed is expected a low-
to
carbon development strategy, in which wind
reach 4.5 to 5 billion tonnes of coal
power will play a central role. Some 15 GW of wind
power equivalent capacity (tce) will be per installed annum, each year rising up to
to
2020. 6.5 billion Cumulative tce operational per annum capacity in that 2050. year
will Electricity be 200 GW, demand up from growth 31 GW at is the likely end to of rise 2010,
meeting 5% of electricity production (400 TWh),
even more steeply, reaching 8 000 TWh in
up from 1.3% today.
Between 2020 and 2030, some 20 20 GW of of wind
capacity will be installed every year, to to reach 400 GW
400 in 2030, GW equivalent in 2030, equivalent to 15% of to all 15% installed of all power installed
The Chinese government has proposed a
power capacity, capacity, covering covering 8.4% of 8.4% electricity of electricity production
production (840 low-carbon TWh). From (840 development then TWh). up From to 2050, then this up strategy, roadmap to 2050, this in
roadmap sees which deployment wind sees deployment power on land will and on play offshore land a and central of offshore 30 GW role.
of per Some 30 annum, GW 15 per GW around annum, of half wind around of annually power half of installed capacity annually power will
installed capacity, power amounting capacity, to 1 000 amounting GW in 2050, to 1 26% 000 GW of
be installed each year up to 2020.
in all 2050, installed 26% capacity, of all installed meeting capacity, 17% of total meeting electricity 17%
of production Cumulative total electricity (2 200 operational production TWh) (Figure (2 capacity 1). 200 While TWh) these in that are
(Figure ambitious 1). targets, While these this roadmap are ambitious finds that targets, none this of
roadmap the challenges finds it that has none identified of the is challenges insurmountable. it has
identified is insurmountable.
The 1 000 GW in 2050 are expected to be divided
The among 1 000 seven GW areas: in 2050 Western are expected and Eastern to be Mongolia,
divided Gansu, Xiangjiang, among seven Jilin, areas: Heibei Western and Jiangsu. and Eastern Jiangsu
Mongolia, province will Gansu, also see Xiangjiang, deployment Jilin, offshore Heibei in and
Jiangsu. intertidal, production Jiangsu shallow province (400 and deep TWh), will waters. also up see Investment from deployment 1.3% costs
offshore on today. land are in intertidal, expected to shallow range from and deep RMB 7 waters. 200/kW to
Investment RMB 7 500/kW costs in 2020, on land falling are expected to RMB 7 000/kW to range in
from 2050. RMB Near 7 shore 200/kW costs to of RMB 7 14 500/kW 000/kW in 2020,
Between 2020 and 2030, some 20 GW of
falling are anticipated to RMB 7 in 000/kW 2020, falling in 2050. to RMB Near 10 shore 000/kW costs
of in 2050. RMB wind 14 Deep capacity 000/kW offshore are will costs anticipated be are installed expected in 2020, every to falling be year,
to RMB RMB to 50 reach 10 000/kW 400 in 2020, GW in 2050. falling in Deep 2030, to RMB offshore equivalent 20 000/kW costs to
are in 2050. 15% expected Cumulative of to all be RMB installed investment 50 000/kW in power wind in 2020, capacity capacity, falling
to over RMB covering the 20 roadmap 000/kW 8.4% period in of 2050. will electricity Cumulative have amounted production
investment to
in some wind RMB capacity 3.8 trillion over (USD the roadmap 600 billion) period in 2030, will and
(840 TWh). From then up to 2050, this
have RMB 12.1 amounted trillion to (USD some 1.9 RMB trillion) 3.8 in trillion 2050 (Figure (USD 600 2).
billion) roadmap in 2030, sees and RMB deployment 12.1 trillion on (USD land 1.9 and
trillion)
This offshore roadmap
in 2050 of visualises 30 (Figure GW 2).
a per maximum annum, tariff around for half
wind energy of RMB 0.55 / kWh. This is based
of annually installed power capacity,
This on regional roadmap capacity visualises factors, a maximum investment tariff cost for
wind and amounting includes energy of an RMB to assumed 1 0.55 000 reasonable / kWh. GW in This 2050, return is based 26% on of
on investment. all regional installed capacity Ensuring capacity, factors, that costs meeting investment do not 17% rise cost of above total
and these electricity includes levels has an been assumed production a primary reasonable driver (2 return 200 behind on TWh)
investment. selection of the Ensuring seven that primary costs deployment do not rise above areas.
(Figure 1). While these are ambitious
these The lowest levels average has been production a primary driver cost areas behind are Inner
selection Mongolia targets, of and the this Hebei seven roadmap province. primary finds deployment that none areas. of
Chinese Wind Power Development Roadmap
keep pace with rapid economic and social
2020, 10 000 TWh in 2030, and 13 000
TWh in 2050, up from 4 200 TWh in 2010.
year will be 200 GW, up from 31 GW at
the end of 2010, meeting 5% of electricity
the challenges it has identified is
insurmountable.
Figure 1: Targeted installed capacity and electricity share of wind power in
China, Figure 1 2010-2050
Targeted China, installed 2010-2050
capacity and electricity share of wind power in China, 2010 – 2050
GW
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
Source: ERI
Source: ERI
Deep offshore wind
Offshore wind
Onshore wind in other areas
Xinjiang
Gansu
Heibei
Northeast
East inner Mongolia
West inner Mongolia
0
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
20%
15%
10%
5%
Share of total electricity production (%)
Summary
1
1

It is expected that the production cost of landbased
wind power will have fallen to a level
roughly equal to coal by 2020, after which time it is
expected to be cheaper. If external environmental
costs are included as well as transmission costs, it
is still expected to be cheaper. Consequently, from
this point in time wind power incentives should
be directed solely towards offshore wind, which in
2020 will be seeing large-scale deployment.
The 1 000 GW in 2050 are expected to be
divided among seven areas: Western and
Meeting the targets identified in this roadmap will
result Eastern in great Mongolia, environmental Gansu, and Xiangjiang, social benefit. Jilin,
Avoided coal consumption will amount to
Heibei and Jiangsu. Jiangsu province will
130 million tce in 2020, 260 million tce in 2030,
and also 660 see million deployment tce in 2050. offshore This will in reduce intertidal,
annual shallow CO equivalent and deep emissions waters. by 0.3 Investment gigatonnes
2
(gt) costs in 2020, on land 0.6 gt are in 2030 expected and 1.5 to gt range in 2050. from
In the same years, sulphur dioxide emissions will
RMB 7 200/kW to RMB 7 500/kW in 2020,
have reduced by 1.1 megatonnes (mt), 2.2 mt and
falling to RMB 7 000/kW in 2050. Near
5.6 mt respectively. The negative environmental
impacts shore of costs wind power of RMB are expected 14 000/kW to be are
negligible.
anticipated in 2020, falling to RMB
10 000/kW in 2050. Deep offshore costs
are expected to be RMB 50 000/kW in
2020, falling to RMB 20 000/kW in 2050.
Cumulative investment in wind capacity
Employment in 2020 resulting from wind power
is expected to be around 1.5 jobs per megawatt.
With efficiencies and economies of scale this is
expected to fall to some 1.1 jobs/MW in 2020 and
0.8 jobs/MW in 2050. This roadmap expects the
wind industry to employ some 360 000 individuals
in 2020, rising to 600 000 in 2030 and nearly three
quarters of a million in 2050.
There is still significant room for advances in
technology over the next four decades. RD&D
activities will focus on deeper understanding
of wind resources, improved wind turbine
performance, wind farm optimisation, reduced
operation and maintenance burden, and larger
turbines. From 2020, turbines in the 5 to 10 MW
scale are expected to be commercially available,
particularly for deployment offshore.
over the roadmap period will have
amounted to some RMB 3.8 trillion (USD
600 billion) in 2030, and RMB 12.1 trillion
(USD 1.9 trillion) in 2050 (Figure 2).
Increased requirement for raw materials will be
a major feature of scaling up wind power. The
supply of steel for turbine towers is not expected
to be constrained, nor the permanent magnet
material, neodymium, for use in direct drive
generators. In contrast, the production of carbon
fibre for rotor blades is already well behind
developing economies: domestic production
will need to increase sharply to provide for the
expected need for 36 700 tonnes in 2050.
This roadmap visualises a maximum tariff
for wind energy of RMB 0.55 / kWh. This is
based on regional capacity factors,
investment cost and includes an assumed
reasonable return on investment. Ensuring
that costs do not rise above these levels
has been a primary driver behind
selection of the seven primary
deployment areas. The lowest average
production cost areas are Inner Mongolia
and Hebei province.
Chinese industry expects to have fully addressed
technical aspects of intertidal wind farms by
2015, and shallow offshore technology by 2020,
Figure 2 2: Cumulative wind wind power power investment investment in China, 2010 in China, ‐ 2050 2010-2050
Source: ERI
14 000
12 000
10 000
Source: ERI
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
2010 2020 2030 2050
It is expected that the production cost of
land‐based wind power will have fallen to
a level roughly equal to coal by 2020, after
which time it is expected to be cheaper. If
Accumulated investment (RMB billion)
incentives should be directed solely
towards offshore wind, which in 2020 will
be seeing large‐scale deployment.
2 China Wind Energy Development Roadmap 2050

after which deep offshore demonstration will
commence (R&D in this area will commence
before 2015). China’s offshore programme will
require the transformation of existing ports and
the development of new facilities, possibly located
on islands to reduce weather related deployment
uncertainties, as well as the development of
specialised installation and transport vessels
after 2016.
Wind power deployment can not be seen in
isolation. Such large capacities of wind power
will inevitably have influence on the wider power
system. Up to 2020, R&D will focus on advanced,
centralised forecasting techniques ranging
from 72 hours ahead up to three ahead of the
time of delivery. “Grid friendly” wind farms are
anticipated by 2020, featuring active and reactive
power control, fault ride through and frequency
regulation capabilities. By 2030, with the
deployment of system storage, grid reinforcement
and advanced scheduling and dispatching
techniques, inter alia, wind power across
the country is expected to provide
similar system support to conventional
power plants.
Up to 2020 and beyond, the majority of wind
power deployed will be in the north of China, far
from load centres. Therefore efforts are needed to
maximise the consumption of wind power locally,
and minimise curtailment. Deployment of wind
power plants must be co-ordinated with that of
other plants types, particularly those which are
technically more flexible, and transmission roll-out
plans across the seven target regions.
Two pathways for development of the transmission
system have been identified, one which retains the
existing six regional power grids, strengthening
integration among them, and one which sees
the development of a new ultra-high voltage AC
grid covering the main load centres in the centre
and east, with DC connections to the north east,
northwest and south.
Power sector reform will have enormous influence
on the deployment of wind power. China is already
making transition to more advanced power plant
dispatch practices wherein cost and CO 2 emissions
of different plant types are taken into account.
Wind power has first priority in dispatch, but in
order for this to be the case in practice a more
transparent power market is needed, and planned
for 2020. Efforts are needed to increase the
transparency of power prices, and to integrate the
external environmental costs of polluting types.
Power prices should reflect the value of flexibility
of power plants. In the mid-term, environmental
and carbon tax approaches should be evaluated for
use in China.
Unbundling vertically integrated players is
an important task. Facilitating trade among
provinces will help accommodate large
fluctuations in wind output. In concert with
advanced forecasting techniques, centralised
operation of wind power plants will help smooth
their aggregated output.
More of existing flexible resources must be
made available through new ancillary service
markets and smart grid technology for balancing
fluctuations in output. Consumer response will
be activated to some extent by new peak-andvalley
pricing. And greater flexibility should be
developed in the conventional generator fleet,
including new hydropower deployment in the
west, gas fired power plants for peaking and
improved ramping capability of conventional
thermal plants.
Key actions to 2020
z Reform power market to achieve marketbased
power pricing, reflecting environmental
externalities, the value of flexibility and
integration costs.
z Strengthen priority grid access and dispatch
of wind power; maximise the ability of
northern provinces to accommodate locally
produced wind power; facilitate interprovincial
transmission using smartest available
technology.
z Accelerate deployment of flexible resources;
deploy best available output forecasting
techniques; activate consumer response to
electricity scarcity.
z Establish a renewable R&D fund and common
experimental platforms. Develop and deploy
cost competitive 5 MW technology by 2015,
and near offshore technology by 2020.
z Strengthen supply chains, especially offshore
transport and installation infrastructure, and
carbon fibre availability.
z Develop specialist wind power training courses
and university curricula by 2015.
Summary
3

Technology Roadmap China Wind Energy Development Roadmap 2050
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