Technology Roadmap - International Energy Agency
Technology Roadmap - International Energy Agency
Technology Roadmap - International Energy Agency
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2035<br />
04<br />
标志、标准字组合<br />
2040<br />
2045<br />
<strong>Technology</strong> <strong>Roadmap</strong><br />
China Wind <strong>Energy</strong> Development 能源研究所 <strong>Roadmap</strong> 2050<br />
<strong>Energy</strong> Research Institute<br />
能源研究所<br />
<strong>Energy</strong> Research Institute<br />
2050<br />
Summary<br />
October 2011
ABOUT THE IEA<br />
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established in November 1974 within the<br />
framework of the Organisation for Economic<br />
Co-operation and Development (OECD) to<br />
implement an international energy programme.<br />
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of energy co-operation among 28 of the 34 OECD<br />
countries. The basic aims of the IEA are:<br />
z zTo<br />
maintain and improve systems for coping<br />
with oil supply disruptions.<br />
z zTo<br />
promote rational energy policies in a<br />
global context through co-operative relations<br />
with non-member countries, industry and<br />
international organisations.<br />
z zTo<br />
operate a permanent information system<br />
on international oil markets.<br />
z zTo<br />
provide data on other aspects of<br />
international energy markets.<br />
z zTo<br />
improve the world’s energy supply and<br />
demand structure by developing alternative<br />
energy sources and increasing the efficiency<br />
of energy use.<br />
z zTo<br />
promote international collaboration on<br />
energy technology.<br />
z zTo<br />
assist in the integration of environmental<br />
and energy policies, including those relating<br />
to climate change.<br />
Copyright © 2011<br />
OECD/<strong>International</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> <strong>Agency</strong><br />
ABOUT ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ERI)<br />
The <strong>Energy</strong> Research Institute (ERI) of the National<br />
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)<br />
of P.R. China is a leading national think tank,<br />
focusing on energy policy research. ERI engages<br />
itself in broad range of research areas, including<br />
macro energy economic and energy planning,<br />
energy technology policy, energy demand and<br />
supply forecast, energy security, energy and<br />
environment, energy efficiency and conservation,<br />
and renewable energy. ERI provides strong<br />
support to the government of China regarding<br />
energy development strategies, planning, policy,<br />
laws and standards.<br />
At the same time, ERI has established a broad<br />
and well functioning partnership and conducts<br />
joint research studies and consulting services<br />
with international agencies, organizations and<br />
academic entities, including the <strong>International</strong><br />
<strong>Energy</strong> <strong>Agency</strong> (IEA), United Nation Development<br />
Programme (UNDP), World Bank (WB), Global<br />
Environmental Facility (GEF) as well with other<br />
institutes from USA, EU, Japan, Russia, and India.<br />
This paper reflects the views of the authors and does not necessarily reflect those of the IEA Secretariat, IEA Member countries or the<br />
funders. The roadmap does not constitute professional advice on any specific issue or situation. ERI and the IEA make no representation<br />
or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the roadmap’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not be<br />
responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the roadmap. For further information, please contact: technologyroadmapscontact@iea.org.<br />
No reproduction or translation of this publication, or any portion thereof, may be made without<br />
prior written permission. Applications should be sent to: rights@iea.org<br />
The China Wind <strong>Energy</strong> Development <strong>Roadmap</strong> was prepared by a team of China Experts under the lead<br />
of National Development and Reform Commission’s <strong>Energy</strong> Research Institute (NDRC ERI), with the close<br />
technical support of the <strong>International</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> <strong>Agency</strong> (IEA). This report provides a summary of the Chinese<br />
version of the roadmap. An English version of the full report will be released later this year.<br />
Thanks are given to the British Embassy Beijing and the Sino-Danish Renewable <strong>Energy</strong> Development<br />
Programme for funding provided for this roadmap.
English summary<br />
<strong>Energy</strong> demand in China is growing to keep pace<br />
with rapid economic and social development. In<br />
2020, it is expected to reach 4.5 to 5 billion tonnes of<br />
coal equivalent (tce) per annum, rising to 6.5 billion<br />
tce per annum in 2050. Electricity demand growth is<br />
likely English to rise even summary more steeply, reaching 8 000 TWh<br />
in 2020, 10 000 TWh in 2030, and 13 000 TWh in<br />
<strong>Energy</strong> demand in China is growing to<br />
2050, up from 4 200 TWh in 2010.<br />
The development. Chinese government In 2020, has it proposed is expected a low-<br />
to<br />
carbon development strategy, in which wind<br />
reach 4.5 to 5 billion tonnes of coal<br />
power will play a central role. Some 15 GW of wind<br />
power equivalent capacity (tce) will be per installed annum, each year rising up to<br />
to<br />
2020. 6.5 billion Cumulative tce operational per annum capacity in that 2050. year<br />
will Electricity be 200 GW, demand up from growth 31 GW at is the likely end to of rise 2010,<br />
meeting 5% of electricity production (400 TWh),<br />
even more steeply, reaching 8 000 TWh in<br />
up from 1.3% today.<br />
Between 2020 and 2030, some 20 20 GW of of wind<br />
capacity will be installed every year, to to reach 400 GW<br />
400 in 2030, GW equivalent in 2030, equivalent to 15% of to all 15% installed of all power installed<br />
The Chinese government has proposed a<br />
power capacity, capacity, covering covering 8.4% of 8.4% electricity of electricity production<br />
production (840 low-carbon TWh). From (840 development then TWh). up From to 2050, then this up strategy, roadmap to 2050, this in<br />
roadmap sees which deployment wind sees deployment power on land will and on play offshore land a and central of offshore 30 GW role.<br />
of per Some 30 annum, GW 15 per GW around annum, of half wind around of annually power half of installed capacity annually power will<br />
installed capacity, power amounting capacity, to 1 000 amounting GW in 2050, to 1 26% 000 GW of<br />
be installed each year up to 2020.<br />
in all 2050, installed 26% capacity, of all installed meeting capacity, 17% of total meeting electricity 17%<br />
of production Cumulative total electricity (2 200 operational production TWh) (Figure (2 capacity 1). 200 While TWh) these in that are<br />
(Figure ambitious 1). targets, While these this roadmap are ambitious finds that targets, none this of<br />
roadmap the challenges finds it that has none identified of the is challenges insurmountable. it has<br />
identified is insurmountable.<br />
The 1 000 GW in 2050 are expected to be divided<br />
The among 1 000 seven GW areas: in 2050 Western are expected and Eastern to be Mongolia,<br />
divided Gansu, Xiangjiang, among seven Jilin, areas: Heibei Western and Jiangsu. and Eastern Jiangsu<br />
Mongolia, province will Gansu, also see Xiangjiang, deployment Jilin, offshore Heibei in and<br />
Jiangsu. intertidal, production Jiangsu shallow province (400 and deep TWh), will waters. also up see Investment from deployment 1.3% costs<br />
offshore on today. land are in intertidal, expected to shallow range from and deep RMB 7 waters. 200/kW to<br />
Investment RMB 7 500/kW costs in 2020, on land falling are expected to RMB 7 000/kW to range in<br />
from 2050. RMB Near 7 shore 200/kW costs to of RMB 7 14 500/kW 000/kW in 2020,<br />
Between 2020 and 2030, some 20 GW of<br />
falling are anticipated to RMB 7 in 000/kW 2020, falling in 2050. to RMB Near 10 shore 000/kW costs<br />
of in 2050. RMB wind 14 Deep capacity 000/kW offshore are will costs anticipated be are installed expected in 2020, every to falling be year,<br />
to RMB RMB to 50 reach 10 000/kW 400 in 2020, GW in 2050. falling in Deep 2030, to RMB offshore equivalent 20 000/kW costs to<br />
are in 2050. 15% expected Cumulative of to all be RMB installed investment 50 000/kW in power wind in 2020, capacity capacity, falling<br />
to over RMB covering the 20 roadmap 000/kW 8.4% period in of 2050. will electricity Cumulative have amounted production<br />
investment to<br />
in some wind RMB capacity 3.8 trillion over (USD the roadmap 600 billion) period in 2030, will and<br />
(840 TWh). From then up to 2050, this<br />
have RMB 12.1 amounted trillion to (USD some 1.9 RMB trillion) 3.8 in trillion 2050 (Figure (USD 600 2).<br />
billion) roadmap in 2030, sees and RMB deployment 12.1 trillion on (USD land 1.9 and<br />
trillion)<br />
This offshore roadmap<br />
in 2050 of visualises 30 (Figure GW 2).<br />
a per maximum annum, tariff around for half<br />
wind energy of RMB 0.55 / kWh. This is based<br />
of annually installed power capacity,<br />
This on regional roadmap capacity visualises factors, a maximum investment tariff cost for<br />
wind and amounting includes energy of an RMB to assumed 1 0.55 000 reasonable / kWh. GW in This 2050, return is based 26% on of<br />
on investment. all regional installed capacity Ensuring capacity, factors, that costs meeting investment do not 17% rise cost of above total<br />
and these electricity includes levels has an been assumed production a primary reasonable driver (2 return 200 behind on TWh)<br />
investment. selection of the Ensuring seven that primary costs deployment do not rise above areas.<br />
(Figure 1). While these are ambitious<br />
these The lowest levels average has been production a primary driver cost areas behind are Inner<br />
selection Mongolia targets, of and the this Hebei seven roadmap province. primary finds deployment that none areas. of<br />
Chinese Wind Power Development <strong>Roadmap</strong><br />
keep pace with rapid economic and social<br />
2020, 10 000 TWh in 2030, and 13 000<br />
TWh in 2050, up from 4 200 TWh in 2010.<br />
year will be 200 GW, up from 31 GW at<br />
the end of 2010, meeting 5% of electricity<br />
the challenges it has identified is<br />
insurmountable.<br />
Figure 1: Targeted installed capacity and electricity share of wind power in<br />
China, Figure 1 2010-2050<br />
Targeted China, installed 2010-2050<br />
capacity and electricity share of wind power in China, 2010 – 2050<br />
GW<br />
1 200<br />
1 000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
Source: ERI<br />
Source: ERI<br />
Deep offshore wind<br />
Offshore wind<br />
Onshore wind in other areas<br />
Xinjiang<br />
Gansu<br />
Heibei<br />
Northeast<br />
East inner Mongolia<br />
West inner Mongolia<br />
0<br />
0%<br />
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
Share of total electricity production (%)<br />
Summary<br />
1<br />
1
It is expected that the production cost of landbased<br />
wind power will have fallen to a level<br />
roughly equal to coal by 2020, after which time it is<br />
expected to be cheaper. If external environmental<br />
costs are included as well as transmission costs, it<br />
is still expected to be cheaper. Consequently, from<br />
this point in time wind power incentives should<br />
be directed solely towards offshore wind, which in<br />
2020 will be seeing large-scale deployment.<br />
The 1 000 GW in 2050 are expected to be<br />
divided among seven areas: Western and<br />
Meeting the targets identified in this roadmap will<br />
result Eastern in great Mongolia, environmental Gansu, and Xiangjiang, social benefit. Jilin,<br />
Avoided coal consumption will amount to<br />
Heibei and Jiangsu. Jiangsu province will<br />
130 million tce in 2020, 260 million tce in 2030,<br />
and also 660 see million deployment tce in 2050. offshore This will in reduce intertidal,<br />
annual shallow CO equivalent and deep emissions waters. by 0.3 Investment gigatonnes<br />
2<br />
(gt) costs in 2020, on land 0.6 gt are in 2030 expected and 1.5 to gt range in 2050. from<br />
In the same years, sulphur dioxide emissions will<br />
RMB 7 200/kW to RMB 7 500/kW in 2020,<br />
have reduced by 1.1 megatonnes (mt), 2.2 mt and<br />
falling to RMB 7 000/kW in 2050. Near<br />
5.6 mt respectively. The negative environmental<br />
impacts shore of costs wind power of RMB are expected 14 000/kW to be are<br />
negligible.<br />
anticipated in 2020, falling to RMB<br />
10 000/kW in 2050. Deep offshore costs<br />
are expected to be RMB 50 000/kW in<br />
2020, falling to RMB 20 000/kW in 2050.<br />
Cumulative investment in wind capacity<br />
Employment in 2020 resulting from wind power<br />
is expected to be around 1.5 jobs per megawatt.<br />
With efficiencies and economies of scale this is<br />
expected to fall to some 1.1 jobs/MW in 2020 and<br />
0.8 jobs/MW in 2050. This roadmap expects the<br />
wind industry to employ some 360 000 individuals<br />
in 2020, rising to 600 000 in 2030 and nearly three<br />
quarters of a million in 2050.<br />
There is still significant room for advances in<br />
technology over the next four decades. RD&D<br />
activities will focus on deeper understanding<br />
of wind resources, improved wind turbine<br />
performance, wind farm optimisation, reduced<br />
operation and maintenance burden, and larger<br />
turbines. From 2020, turbines in the 5 to 10 MW<br />
scale are expected to be commercially available,<br />
particularly for deployment offshore.<br />
over the roadmap period will have<br />
amounted to some RMB 3.8 trillion (USD<br />
600 billion) in 2030, and RMB 12.1 trillion<br />
(USD 1.9 trillion) in 2050 (Figure 2).<br />
Increased requirement for raw materials will be<br />
a major feature of scaling up wind power. The<br />
supply of steel for turbine towers is not expected<br />
to be constrained, nor the permanent magnet<br />
material, neodymium, for use in direct drive<br />
generators. In contrast, the production of carbon<br />
fibre for rotor blades is already well behind<br />
developing economies: domestic production<br />
will need to increase sharply to provide for the<br />
expected need for 36 700 tonnes in 2050.<br />
This roadmap visualises a maximum tariff<br />
for wind energy of RMB 0.55 / kWh. This is<br />
based on regional capacity factors,<br />
investment cost and includes an assumed<br />
reasonable return on investment. Ensuring<br />
that costs do not rise above these levels<br />
has been a primary driver behind<br />
selection of the seven primary<br />
deployment areas. The lowest average<br />
production cost areas are Inner Mongolia<br />
and Hebei province.<br />
Chinese industry expects to have fully addressed<br />
technical aspects of intertidal wind farms by<br />
2015, and shallow offshore technology by 2020,<br />
Figure 2 2: Cumulative wind wind power power investment investment in China, 2010 in China, ‐ 2050 2010-2050<br />
Source: ERI<br />
14 000<br />
12 000<br />
10 000<br />
Source: ERI<br />
8 000<br />
6 000<br />
4 000<br />
2 000<br />
0<br />
2010 2020 2030 2050<br />
It is expected that the production cost of<br />
land‐based wind power will have fallen to<br />
a level roughly equal to coal by 2020, after<br />
which time it is expected to be cheaper. If<br />
Accumulated investment (RMB billion)<br />
incentives should be directed solely<br />
towards offshore wind, which in 2020 will<br />
be seeing large‐scale deployment.<br />
2 China Wind <strong>Energy</strong> Development <strong>Roadmap</strong> 2050
after which deep offshore demonstration will<br />
commence (R&D in this area will commence<br />
before 2015). China’s offshore programme will<br />
require the transformation of existing ports and<br />
the development of new facilities, possibly located<br />
on islands to reduce weather related deployment<br />
uncertainties, as well as the development of<br />
specialised installation and transport vessels<br />
after 2016.<br />
Wind power deployment can not be seen in<br />
isolation. Such large capacities of wind power<br />
will inevitably have influence on the wider power<br />
system. Up to 2020, R&D will focus on advanced,<br />
centralised forecasting techniques ranging<br />
from 72 hours ahead up to three ahead of the<br />
time of delivery. “Grid friendly” wind farms are<br />
anticipated by 2020, featuring active and reactive<br />
power control, fault ride through and frequency<br />
regulation capabilities. By 2030, with the<br />
deployment of system storage, grid reinforcement<br />
and advanced scheduling and dispatching<br />
techniques, inter alia, wind power across<br />
the country is expected to provide<br />
similar system support to conventional<br />
power plants.<br />
Up to 2020 and beyond, the majority of wind<br />
power deployed will be in the north of China, far<br />
from load centres. Therefore efforts are needed to<br />
maximise the consumption of wind power locally,<br />
and minimise curtailment. Deployment of wind<br />
power plants must be co-ordinated with that of<br />
other plants types, particularly those which are<br />
technically more flexible, and transmission roll-out<br />
plans across the seven target regions.<br />
Two pathways for development of the transmission<br />
system have been identified, one which retains the<br />
existing six regional power grids, strengthening<br />
integration among them, and one which sees<br />
the development of a new ultra-high voltage AC<br />
grid covering the main load centres in the centre<br />
and east, with DC connections to the north east,<br />
northwest and south.<br />
Power sector reform will have enormous influence<br />
on the deployment of wind power. China is already<br />
making transition to more advanced power plant<br />
dispatch practices wherein cost and CO 2 emissions<br />
of different plant types are taken into account.<br />
Wind power has first priority in dispatch, but in<br />
order for this to be the case in practice a more<br />
transparent power market is needed, and planned<br />
for 2020. Efforts are needed to increase the<br />
transparency of power prices, and to integrate the<br />
external environmental costs of polluting types.<br />
Power prices should reflect the value of flexibility<br />
of power plants. In the mid-term, environmental<br />
and carbon tax approaches should be evaluated for<br />
use in China.<br />
Unbundling vertically integrated players is<br />
an important task. Facilitating trade among<br />
provinces will help accommodate large<br />
fluctuations in wind output. In concert with<br />
advanced forecasting techniques, centralised<br />
operation of wind power plants will help smooth<br />
their aggregated output.<br />
More of existing flexible resources must be<br />
made available through new ancillary service<br />
markets and smart grid technology for balancing<br />
fluctuations in output. Consumer response will<br />
be activated to some extent by new peak-andvalley<br />
pricing. And greater flexibility should be<br />
developed in the conventional generator fleet,<br />
including new hydropower deployment in the<br />
west, gas fired power plants for peaking and<br />
improved ramping capability of conventional<br />
thermal plants.<br />
Key actions to 2020<br />
z Reform power market to achieve marketbased<br />
power pricing, reflecting environmental<br />
externalities, the value of flexibility and<br />
integration costs.<br />
z Strengthen priority grid access and dispatch<br />
of wind power; maximise the ability of<br />
northern provinces to accommodate locally<br />
produced wind power; facilitate interprovincial<br />
transmission using smartest available<br />
technology.<br />
z Accelerate deployment of flexible resources;<br />
deploy best available output forecasting<br />
techniques; activate consumer response to<br />
electricity scarcity.<br />
z Establish a renewable R&D fund and common<br />
experimental platforms. Develop and deploy<br />
cost competitive 5 MW technology by 2015,<br />
and near offshore technology by 2020.<br />
z Strengthen supply chains, especially offshore<br />
transport and installation infrastructure, and<br />
carbon fibre availability.<br />
z Develop specialist wind power training courses<br />
and university curricula by 2015.<br />
Summary<br />
3
<strong>Technology</strong> <strong>Roadmap</strong> China Wind <strong>Energy</strong> Development <strong>Roadmap</strong> 2050<br />
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