Power Statistics - 2010 Edition - Full Report - Eurelectric

Outlook up to 2030
Gross domestic product trends
Although economic growth is expected to resume from 2010
onwards, the recent recession will have a long-term impact even
beyond 2015. It will be difficult to recover the important losses in
gross domestic product (GDP) across Europe in the near future.
Average EU growth prospects for 2011 and 2012 are indicated to
be around 1 %. A further increase in GDP across Europe is to be
expected from 2013 onwards.
A breakdown of the EU-27 GDP (see Figure 2) reveals the dominant
role of services (including transportation). Both the industry
and services sectors recover after 2010, partially offsetting the
negative effects of the 2008-2009 crisis. Sustained recovery will
then occur between 2020 and 2030.
Based on these figures, the standard of living in Europe (GDP
per capita) is expected to increase at a low rate of roughly 1-2 %
annually, near or even above inflation rates. Recovery will be
very unequal across Europe, and forecasts are contradictory
and require further detailed analysis. The resulting, increased
pressure on all resource requirements and infrastructure,
including energy, electricity and associated networks, means
that strong incentives for investment will be needed.
Figure 2: Breakdown of EU-27 gross domestic product
(billion euros at 2000 price levels and exchange rate)
GDP (2000 prices)
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Breakdown of Gross Domestic Product
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Gross Domestic Product
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
12 Power Statistics – 2010 Edition
Demography: low population growth
to be offset by dynamic migration
Demographic trends within the EU-27 will continue to follow a
low growth scenario (see Figure 3), with some countries on a
negative growth track. For instance, the German population will
drop from 82 million in 2008 to 78 million in 2030, while Italy’s
population of approximately 60 million is expected to decrease
to 58 million during the same period. Dynamic immigration is
expected to be an important factor in offsetting this trend.
Figure 3: Demographic evolution of the EU population
(thousands, at year end)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Demographic evolution of the EU population
463.648
476.199 488.145
503.076 505.305 506.948 515.345 521.653
1980 1990 2000 2007 2008 2010 2020 2030