Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Year Price Determination ... - Eskom

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Overview of Multi-Year Price Determination 2013/14–2017/18 (MYPD 3) Page 98 of 144 to Operating costs in Moving towards a sustainable electricity industry for projections on primary energy and nuclear energy costs.) The sales forecast for MYPD 3 was compiled in consultation with key customers and representatives from customer groups to determine their expected energy requirements. It projects that sales growth will slow to 1.9% a year for the five years of the proposed MYPD period, compared with the 2.8% growth projected in the MYPD 2 application. Projected sales volumes represent net sales after accounting for IDM initiatives (see Table 40). As mentioned, the MYPD 2 sales forecast for 2013/14 to 2017/18 was significantly higher than the MYPD 3 sales forecast. Table 40: MYPD 2 actual sales and sales projections versus MYPD 3 sales projections (net of IDM initiatives) 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 MYPD 2 application (GWh) 228 266 233 400 237 932 242 472 246 494 254 140 263 325 272 560 Growth in MYPD 3 forecasts (%) 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 3.1% 3.6% 3.5% MYPD 3 application (GWh) 224 446 225 130 222 028 227 404 229 513 235 638 239 112 244 026 Growth in MYPD 3 forecasts (%) 0.3% -1.4% 2.4% 0.9% 2.7% 1.5% 2.1% Decline in sales compared to MYPD 2 (GWh) 3 820 8 270 15 904 15 068 16 981 18 502 24 213 28 534 Table 41: Summary of IDM costs and energy savings The energy requirements in the sales forecast will be served by: Eskom‟s current power stations, based on EAF projections that assume all planned maintenance will be done. Power stations that will be commissioned within the MYPD 3 period as part of the current capacity expansion programme. Known and signed non-Eskom generators (for instance, those owned by municipalities). 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 MYPD 3 Programmes - peak demand savings (MW) 344 343 1 286 458 358 221 232 461 Programmes - annualised energy savings (GWh) 1 274 1 334 3 505 2 245 1,361 826 1 016 2 283 Programmes - costs (Rm) 576 1 593 7 485 2 660 2,419 1 581 1 652 3 033 11 345 Operating costs (Rm) 246 485 309 463 480 484 518 580 2 525 Depreciation (Rm) 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 Total costs (Rm) 823 2 082 7 795 3 124 2 900 2 066 2 171 3 614 13 875 Other (Rm) - 44 - 140 - 11 - 183 - 191 - 204 - 205 - 2 - 785 Net costs (Rm) 779 1 942 7 784 2 941 2 709 1 862 1 966 3 612 13 090 Known and signed IPPs, including renewable energy IPPs.
Overview of Multi-Year Price Determination 2013/14–2017/18 (MYPD 3) The Cahorra Bassa hydroelectric facility in Mozambique and other imports. Table 42: Energy mix projections for MYPD 3 (GWh) Page 99 of 144 Figure 10 depicts the breakdown of Eskom‟s sales customers in 2012. This mix is expected to continue throughout MYPD 3. Eskom would like to emphasise that the mix of customers within municipalities varies depending on the given municipality‟s jurisdiction. This differing customer portfolio creates problems when implementing tariff structures across the country based on Eskom‟s customer profile. Figure 10: Sales mix for 2012 5.1.1 Drivers of low MYPD 3 sales In addition to IDM, the MYPD 3 forecast assumes low sales growth due to the following factors: Coal Nuclear Gas Hydro Pumped Storage Wind Total Eskom generation IPPs Distribution Municipality Imports Gross generation Wheeling Supply 2012/13 218 963 12 710 1 104 667 2 970 236 414 2 795 164 10 387 249 760 3 691 253 451 2013/14 220 520 14 239 1 284 671 3 114 69 239 896 4 152 162 11 822 256 032 3 393 259 425 2014/15 222 661 13 751 1 076 670 5 261 220 243 639 6 214 159 11 275 261 287 2 712 263 999 2015/16 229 194 12 959 540 672 5 955 222 249 542 8 233 157 11 131 269 063 2 707 271 770 2016/17 231 406 14 197 533 671 5 902 222 252 930 9 015 155 11 110 273 211 2 689 275 900 2017/18 237 325 14 577 538 671 5 943 228 259 281 9 071 152 11 120 279 624 2 681 282 305
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Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Y
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction Over
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ESKOM PROFILE Overview of Multi-Yea
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Price path: Funding: Other: Overvie
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2 THE MYPD PROCESS Key points Overv
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Electricity Pricing Policy Overview
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Accomplishments during MYPD 2 Overv
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Base case application Overview of M
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Page 127 and 128: Simplify tariff structures Modify s
Page 137 and 138: 7 CONCLUSION Overview of Multi-Year
Page 143 and 144: Transmission Overview of Multi-Year
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Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Year Price Determination ... - Eskom

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