Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Year Price Determination ... - Eskom

Overview of Multi-Year Price Determination
2013/14–2017/18 (MYPD 3)
Page 98 of 144
to Operating costs in Moving towards a sustainable electricity industry for projections on
primary energy and nuclear energy costs.)
The sales forecast for MYPD 3 was compiled in consultation with key customers and
representatives from customer groups to determine their expected energy requirements. It
projects that sales growth will slow to 1.9% a year for the five years of the proposed MYPD
period, compared with the 2.8% growth projected in the MYPD 2 application.
Projected sales volumes represent net sales after accounting for IDM initiatives (see Table
40). As mentioned, the MYPD 2 sales forecast for 2013/14 to 2017/18 was significantly
higher than the MYPD 3 sales forecast.
Table 40: MYPD 2 actual sales and sales projections versus MYPD 3 sales projections (net of
IDM initiatives)
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
MYPD 2 application (GWh) 228 266 233 400 237 932 242 472 246 494 254 140 263 325 272 560
Growth in MYPD 3 forecasts (%) 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 3.1% 3.6% 3.5%
MYPD 3 application (GWh) 224 446 225 130 222 028 227 404 229 513 235 638 239 112 244 026
Growth in MYPD 3 forecasts (%) 0.3% -1.4% 2.4% 0.9% 2.7% 1.5% 2.1%
Decline in sales compared to MYPD 2 (GWh) 3 820 8 270 15 904 15 068 16 981 18 502 24 213 28 534
Table 41: Summary of IDM costs and energy savings
The energy requirements in the sales forecast will be served by:
Eskom‟s current power stations, based on EAF projections that assume all
planned maintenance will be done.
Power stations that will be commissioned within the MYPD 3 period as part of the
current capacity expansion programme.
Known and signed non-Eskom generators (for instance, those owned by
municipalities).
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 MYPD 3
Programmes - peak demand savings (MW) 344 343 1 286 458 358 221 232 461
Programmes - annualised energy savings (GWh) 1 274 1 334 3 505 2 245 1,361 826 1 016 2 283
Programmes - costs (Rm) 576 1 593 7 485 2 660 2,419 1 581 1 652 3 033 11 345
Operating costs (Rm) 246 485 309 463 480 484 518 580 2 525
Depreciation (Rm) 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 5
Total costs (Rm) 823 2 082 7 795 3 124 2 900 2 066 2 171 3 614 13 875
Other (Rm) - 44 - 140 - 11 - 183 - 191 - 204 - 205 - 2 - 785
Net costs (Rm) 779 1 942 7 784 2 941 2 709 1 862 1 966 3 612 13 090
Known and signed IPPs, including renewable energy IPPs.