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Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Year Price Determination ... - Eskom

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Overview of <strong>Multi</strong>-<strong>Year</strong> <strong>Price</strong> <strong>Determination</strong><br />

2013/14–2017/18 (MYPD 3)<br />

Page 45 of 144<br />

Energy efficiency and demand-side management is an integral part of <strong>Eskom</strong>‟s strategy to<br />

keep the lights on in a constrained system. The company is concerned that any delays in<br />

funding through the suggested process could affect security of supply. Given the<br />

circumstances, these costs remain part of the final revenue requirement.<br />

The principle put forward by National Treasury (as well as the DoE) that in future energy<br />

efficiency and demand side management initiatives need to be funded centrally through the<br />

fiscus is acknowledged.<br />

Independent power producers<br />

<strong>Eskom</strong>‟s base case made provision for integrating only those IPPs that have already been<br />

contracted through medium- and short-term power purchase agreements and phase 1 of the<br />

DoE‟s renewable energy IPP programme. The base case assumed that only 50% of this<br />

planned IPP generating capacity would be realised within the MYPD 3 period and that<br />

<strong>Eskom</strong> would be required to pick up the shortfall.<br />

Salga proposed revising the assumption that only 50% of the planned IPP capacity would be<br />

realised upwards to 75%. The National Treasury did not oppose the assumption of 50%<br />

realisation but recommended that, given the IPPs‟ relatively minor effect on the cost of<br />

primary energy and operations, any additional revenue required as a result of IPPs<br />

exceeding the 50% assumption be dealt with through the regulatory clearing account.<br />

This application now includes the projected costs of all three rounds of the DoE‟s renewable<br />

energy IPP programme (3725MW) based on the determination by the Minister of Energy in<br />

terms of section 34(1) of the Electricity Regulation Act.<br />

Energy demand and GDP growth<br />

<strong>Eskom</strong>‟s proposed application projected that energy demand would grow by 1.9% over the<br />

MYPD 3 period, derived from an average projected GDP growth of 4%. Salga stated that the<br />

GDP growth figure was optimistic, quoting lower forecasts from both the World Bank and the<br />

Reserve Bank. The National Treasury thought a GDP growth rate of 4% was reasonable, but<br />

that growth in electricity sales slowing to 1.9% for MYPD 3 was substantially lower than<br />

historical trends and the projections on which IRP 2010 are based. It proposed that <strong>Eskom</strong>‟s<br />

application add a projection based on an average growth in sales of 2.3% per year (0.5%<br />

higher than in the proposed application).

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