Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Year Price Determination ... - Eskom

Overview of Multi-Year Price Determination
2013/14–2017/18 (MYPD 3)
Page 30 of 144
5,500MW of IPPs in the window up to 2017/18. This culminates to approximately 9,200MW
of IPP capacity in the MYPD3 period (2013/14 to 2017/18). A scenario assuming 100%
Eskom build is also provided.
The allocations are based on the capacity of 45,637MWs not yet under construction shown
in IRP2010.The example assumes a 1.9% compound average growth rate for electricity
sales over the MYPD 3 period. Thereafter, sales growth aligns with IRP 2010 projections
(2.9% average) up to 2030.
Table 9: Migration from the 65% to 100% build scenario
The IPP total capacity of 13 791MWs comprises the base IPPs of 9210MWs, DoE peaker of
1020MW, co-generation of 960MW and hydro imports of 2609MW. These capacities cannot
be allocated to Eskom.
Migration from 65% to 100% scenario
Total MWs 65% scenario 28,737
MWs previously built by IPPs 2,700
Total MWs 100% scenario 31,437
1.5.1 Key findings of capacity expansion to 2030
Eskom has approached the long term implication of delivering on the country‟s IRP 2010
capacity plan by compiling two scenarios where the allocations to Eskom‟s build capacity are
either 65% or 100% of IRP2010 beyond the MYPD3 period. In compiling these scenarios the
following key principles where assumed:
Capacity and capital expenditure:
Eskom IPPs
Capacity expansion until 2030 is based substantially upon the IRP 2010, taking into
account timing and capacity deviations based on recent guidance received from
government and certain technical assumptions.
16,491
(2,700)
13,791