Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Year Price Determination ... - Eskom
Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Year Price Determination ... - Eskom
Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Year Price Determination ... - Eskom
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INVESTMENT GRADE RATIOS<br />
CAPACITY AND CAPEX<br />
TARIFF AND ROA<br />
c/kWh<br />
8<br />
7<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
MWs<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
100,000<br />
80,000<br />
60,000<br />
40,000<br />
20,000<br />
-<br />
43GW<br />
GENERATION CAPACITY<br />
53GW<br />
Figure 13: Analysis of <strong>Eskom</strong> 65% build scenario<br />
66GW<br />
Overview of <strong>Multi</strong>-<strong>Year</strong> <strong>Price</strong> <strong>Determination</strong><br />
81GW<br />
10/11 15/16 20/21 25/26 30/31<br />
2013/14–2017/18 (MYPD 3)<br />
82GW<br />
72GW<br />
58GW<br />
COAL GAS / OIL RENEWABLES NUCLEAR HYDRO PUMPED STORAGE OTHER<br />
25% 26%<br />
7.6<br />
16%<br />
20% 20% 20% 20% 20%<br />
4.2<br />
9% 9% 9% 9% 9%<br />
-8%<br />
MYPD 2 MYPD 3 MYPD 4 MYPD 5 & BEYOND<br />
10/11<br />
11/12<br />
12/13<br />
13/14<br />
14/15<br />
15/16<br />
TARIFF IMPLICATIONS<br />
16/17<br />
17/18<br />
18/19<br />
19/20<br />
20/21<br />
21/22<br />
TOTAL DEBT : EBITDA<br />
2.4<br />
22/23<br />
23/24<br />
4% 6%<br />
24/25<br />
25/26<br />
10/11 15/16 20/21 25/26 30/31<br />
-1%<br />
26/27<br />
27/28<br />
2.6<br />
TOTAL DEBT TO EBITDA INV GRADE TARGET < 3<br />
6% 10%<br />
5% 5%<br />
4% 5%<br />
28/29<br />
29/30<br />
Nominal price % increase (RHS) Nominal standard tariff - c/kWh (LHS)<br />
Real standard tariff - c/kWh (LHS) IRP 2010 - real c/kWh (LHS)<br />
30/31<br />
30%<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
0%<br />
-5%<br />
-10%<br />
-15%<br />
0.3<br />
65% BUILD<br />
Nominal % increase<br />
Rand billion<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
40%<br />
35%<br />
30%<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
-5%<br />
1,600<br />
1,400<br />
1,200<br />
1,000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
-<br />
16%<br />
71<br />
44<br />
FUNDING VS CAPEX<br />
(5 year incremental)<br />
288<br />
361<br />
373<br />
797<br />
Page 115 of 144<br />
444<br />
1,398<br />
10/11 15/16 20/21 25/26 30/31<br />
24%<br />
5%<br />
FUNDING RAISED CAPEX<br />
RETURN ON ASSETS<br />
11%<br />
-3%<br />
10/11 15/16 20/21 25/26 30/31<br />
LEVERAGE RATIO<br />
37% 40%<br />
10/11 15/16 20/21 25/26 30/31<br />
FFO : TOTAL DEBT INV GRADE TARGET >20%<br />
60<br />
7% 6%<br />
Nominal RoA ( pre-tax ) Real RoA ( pre-tax ) - RC asset valuation<br />
902
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