Part 1 Revenue Application: Multi-Year Price Determination ... - Eskom

Overview of Multi-Year Price Determination
2013/14–2017/18 (MYPD 3)
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The long-term implication is that Eskom‟s electricity prices will need to reach 105c/kWh in
real terms by 2030. This would require a 20% average increase each year for the five year
MYPD 3 period, followed by further increases of 9% per year for a further five years for
MYPD 4. Annual increases of approximately 5% thereafter. As noted earlier, electricity
prices will go up to this extent even if the IRP 2010 capacity is allocated to one or more
parties other than Eskom.
Assumptions behind scenarios
The scenarios assume the following conditions:
Capacity and capital expenditure:
Capacity expansion until 2030 is based substantially upon the IRP 2010, taking into
account timing and capacity deviations based on recent guidance received from
government and certain technical assumptions
Eskom supplies its own transmission and distribution infrastructure.
The total capital expenditure excludes capital expenditure related to municipal
distribution infrastructure.
No replacement capacity build beyond 2040 is catered for and hence this impact is
excluded from the financial implications in the latter years.
The build allocation between IPP‟s and Eskom on the 65% scenario is depicted in
Table 45: