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MARKAL represents all activities that are necessary to provide a fixed set of products and services. Products
and services can be generated through a number of alternative (sets of) processes. The model contains a database
of several hundred processes, covering the whole life cycle for both energy and materials. The model calculates
the least-cost system configuration.
The database of processes and the constraints for individual processes and for the whole region are defined by
the model user. Constraints are determined by the demand for products and services, the maximum introduction
rate of new processes, the availability of resources, environmental policy goals for energy use and for emissions
etcetera. All environmental impacts are endogenised into the process costs and into the costs of energy
and matter flows between processes.
MARKAL is a dynamic model. The time span to be modeled is divided into seven periods of equal length,
covering the period 1990-2050. Changing technology is modeled through changing parameters in time for
individual processes. The future availability of new alternative processes is modeled separately. The model is
used to calculate the least-cost system configuration for the whole time period, meeting exogenously defined
product and service demands and meeting emission reduction targets. This optimization is based on a so-called
‘perfect foresight’ approach, where all time periods are simultaneously optimized. Future constraints are taken
into account in current investment decisions.
The model contains approximately 50 energy carriers, 125 materials, 100 product service categories and 32
types of waste materials. The whole system consists of several hundred processes. A detailed description of the
model input parameters for processes, materials and products can be found in separate reports.
[8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17]
Different GHG emission penalties have been analyzed. These penalties are shown in Figure 5. The base case is
run without penalties. In the emission reduction cases, the penalties increase from zero in the year 2000 to their
maximum level in 2020 and stabilize afterwards.
[ECU/T CO2]
200
150
100
50
"200 ECU/T CO2"
"100 ECU/T CO2"
"50 ECU/T CO2"
"20 ECU/T CO2"
0
1990 2000 2010 2020
[YEAR]
2030 2040 2050
Figure 5 GHG emission penalty scenarios