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Table 1 The relevance of materials for GHG emissions, end use based system boundaries, based on actual emissions according to IPCC accounting guidelines CO2 Non-CO2 GHG Total Fraction [Mt CO2 equiv.pa] [Mt CO2 equiv.pa] [Mt CO2 equiv.pa] [%] Metals 244 11 255 26 Synthetic organic materials 167 53 220 22 Natural organic materials 93 130 223 22 Inorganic materials 49 60 109 11 Ceramic materials 191 - 191 19 Total 744 254 998 100 The flows of energy and materials through the economy can be analysed in a systems approach. “A system is a structured assemblage of elements and subsystems, which interact through interfaces. The interaction occurs between system elements and between the system and its environment. The element and their interactions constitute a total system, which satisfies functional, operational and physical characteristics, as defined by the user and customer needs and requirements, over a defined total system life cycle of the system in existence, including the life cycle of bringing the system into being” [3] The system elements in the economy are called processes. They are defined by their energy and material inputs and outputs, by their emissions and by their costs. Examples are a blast furnace (input coal and coke, output liquid iron), a car manufacturing plant (input steel sheet, other materials and energy, output cars), landfill sites (input waste materials). The interfaces between the processes are called flows. They include energy flows and material flows. The function of the system is to satisfy a demand from the final users (e.g. a demand for housing, transportation, lighting and packaging). Constraints are for example added for the availability of resources, for the social acceptance of processes (like nuclear power plants or public transportation) and for the environmental impact of the system (like GHG emissions). How long is the life cycle of the system ? The definition encompasses all steps from the early system conception to its final abolishment. For the economy as a whole, it is difficult to set these boundaries. From a systems engineering point of view for GHG emission reduction, it is more relevant to analyze the system dynamics: how much time is required to achieve significant changes in the system configuration in order to change its environmental impact. The dynamics of the energy and materials system are defined by the rate of technological change, the turn-over rate of production processes, and the product life. The rate of technological change is often overestimated. Technological breakthroughs require decades, even if the development is successful. Many key processes in the energy and materials system show little technological change over the last century. Examples are blast furnaces, Hall-Heroult smelters for aluminium production, pulp mills, ignition engines for e.g. passenger cars. Gradual efficiency improvements have occured, but the technical basic principle has not changed. Development of alternatives was not succesful because of technological problems or because of worse process economics. Even if technology development is successful, the actual introduction is hampered by the slow diffusion processes for new technology. Literature data suggest the the time required for a new process to unfold from 10% to 90% of the market share ranges from one decade to several centuries, depending on the pervasiveness of the technology and the interaction with existing practices and technologies [4]. Diffusion of new technologies is also hampered by the life span of existing capital equipment. The life span of industrial equipment ranges from 1 to 5 decades. The life span of infrastructure ranges from 5 to 10 decades. Data for materials production suggest similar slow system dynamics. Figure 3 shows the materials production trends for a number of “old” materials (steel, cement) and “new” materials (polyethylene, aluminium). It is interesting to see the strong growth of paper production, despite the fact that this is the material with the longest
history of use. The figure indicates that the introduction of new materials can also be considered as a slow diffusion process. INDEX [-] 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 [YEAR] STEEL CEMENT ALUMINIUM PAPER/BOARD Figure 3 Western European materials production, period 1960-1995 (1990=100) An additional barrier for materials substitution is the relatively closed life cycle of many materials (contrary to the energy carrier life cycle). Recycling of waste materials beyond the product life limits the rate of change in the materials system. In conclusion, the slow dynamics of the materials system makes long term planning feasible and sensible. General model description The MARKAL linear programming model was developed 20 years ago within the international IEA/ETSAP framework (International Energy Agency/Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme). More than 50 institutes in 27 countries use nowadays MARKAL [5,6] MARKAL is an acronym for MARKet ALlocation. The model was originally developed for energy systems analysis. In recent years, the model has been extended for materials system analysis [7] The model covers now the whole materials life cycle ‘from cradle to grave’. Figure 4 shows the materials system model structure. 1 PRIMARY PRODUCTION MATERIAL 3 PRODUCT ASSEMBLY PRODUCT 4 PRODUCT USE WASTE PRODUCT 5 REMOVAL &SEPARATION 2 RECYCLING 6 ENERGY RECOVERY Figure 4 Materials system model structure WASTE MATERIAL 7 DISPOSAL PE
Page 1 and 2: Workshop Factor 2/Factor 10 Proceed
Page 3 and 4: The Impact of GHG Emission Reductio
Page 5: N2O INDUSTRY OTHER GHG CH4 LANDFILL
Page 9 and 10: Emission mitigation options The fol
Page 11 and 12: The contribution of the materials s
Page 13 and 14: [MT AL/YEAR] 25 20 15 10 5 0 BC 50
Page 15 and 16: What are the dynamics of the materi
Page 17 and 18: Material efficiency improvement for
Page 19 and 20: Table 1.1 First order estimate of e
Page 21 and 22: PET bottles normally are made out o
Page 23 and 24: To model the category boxes we will
Page 25 and 26: 2.8 Pallets The last packaging cate
Page 27 and 28: they are not a result of the MARKAL
Page 29 and 30: Table 4.1 (continued) The use of pa
Page 31 and 32: or keep it fresh and their second c
Page 33 and 34: [33] Packaging Week 1992-1997, many
Page 35 and 36: GER values Direct energy use (MJ/vk
Page 37 and 38: ogy for igniting the engine, valve
Page 39 and 40: Table 1 gives an overview of improv
Page 41 and 42: Implementing growth of mobility dem
Page 43 and 44: Realising the 80% reduction potenti
Page 45 and 46: CO2 Emissions of Metal Production T
Page 47 and 48: tion routes that are important for
Page 49 and 50: From figures 4 and 5, CO2 removal e
Page 51 and 52: Table 3 Emissions per tonne liquid
Page 53 and 54: Table 6 CO2 emissions per tonne liq
Page 55 and 56: DCEAF Direct Current Electric Arc F
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Verslag van de workshop commentaren
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Transportmiddelen Referent dhr. Smo
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Gebouwen en Infrastructuur Referent
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Referent dhr. Gouwens, TNO-Bouw 1 R
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Metalen Referent dhr.de Jong, Hoogo
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Algemene vragen en forumdiscussie D
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3 Wat voor problemen zouden we als
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ir. R. van Duin (Bureau B&G) drs.ir
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