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2050 2.9 EJ 42 2.5 EJ 37
Table 7 shows the same effects as table 4. Because of the high occupancy of individual transport systems, the
public systems score worse than the individual systems. Therefore, a higher reduction potential is achieved in
the Market Drive scenario, in which a larger share of the transport demand is provided with individual transport
systems, than in the Rational Perspective scenario with the high public transport share. Once again, it
should be noted that this high occupancy of individual systems is more realistic in a system with a large public
transport share.
CO2 emissions related to passenger transport
The total energy saving potential for passenger transport also depends on external factors. The ERE value for
electricity is of great importance for the results. Next to that, improvement options in the manufacturing industry,
as well as in the GER value of materials could contribute to energy savings associated with transport. The
CO2 emissions of transport are closely related to the energy use for passenger transportation. As shown in figure
4, the carbon content of a energy carrier determines the CO2 emission.
Primary energy use
of carrier i
Figure 4. Calculation scheme of total CO2 emissions
* =
Carbon content
of carrier i
CO 2 emission
of carrier i
In order to achieve a 90% reduction in the CO2 emission, not only the energy use, but also the carbon content of
the energy carriers should be taken into account. This extra factor also offers an extra opportunity to reduce the
emissions.
Along with the ERE value of electricity, the carbon associated share of electricity varies. When the share of non
fossil fuels used for electricity increases, the ERE value for electricity decreases, and so is the associated carbon
content. Next to the improvement options mentioned in this paper, also changes to other fuel mixes like biofuels
or hydrogen are conceivable. This will not result in an energy reduction, but may result in a reduction of the
CO2 emission, provided that the new fuels have more favourable carbon contents or are produced sustainably
(with closed carbon cycle or out of electrolysis driven by photovoltaic electricity).
Regarding the reduction of CO2 emissions it may be concluded that analogue to the energy consumption an
80% reduction in 2050 is possible. With a change to other fuels this reduction percentage may be even higher.
In order to achieve a 90% reduction in 2050, the external factors influencing the CO2 emissions should be
halved.
Discussion and conclusions
The calculations in this paper show considerable energy saving potentials within the transportation system.
With only technological options, a 50% reduction is possible in 2020, and a 60 % reduction in 2050. When
non-technical options are added, requiring major behavioural adaptations, 80% reduction can be achieved in
2050.
Implementing the technological options will result in higher costs in the transportation sector, since the various
options require extra research and production facilities. Partly, these extra costs will be compensated by the fuel
savings achieved by the introduction of the new technology. In general, the first savings are the cheapest to realise,
more expensive options will only be implemented if the cheapest options are already in use. With the
subdivision made in this paper, this general decrease in costs is not so obvious. The options emphasising on
behavioural change generally have lower costs per kilometre. Doubling the occupancy rate about halves the
costs per passenger kilometre. So the implementation of the technological improvement options result in higher
costs, whereas the more categories of options are implemented, the lower the costs of transport will be.