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Table 1 gives an overview of improvement options which might be relevant for the reduction of the total energy
use and emissions from passenger transport. The division in four categories gives some indication of the difficulties
that may occur in implementing these options. This paper will not analyse thoroughly these implementation
barriers, nor the costs associated with them.
Calculation of the reduction potential
The information presented in table 1 can be used to calculate the energy reduction potential of passenger transport.
Our goal is to calculate values for 2020 and 2050. To calculate the 2020 reduction potential, the 2015 values
are used. For the calculation of the 2050 reduction potential, only limited information is available. The values
presented in (Ybema et al., 1995) have 2030 as a time horizon. For these options, no extra assumptions are
made on extra saving potentials, which means that the 2030 value is used if no 2050 reduction potential is
given. The total reduction potential can be calculated by multiplying the efficiencies of the various techniques.
In case of a 850 kg passenger car with a modified frame, the efficiency results for 2000 in (1-0.14)*(1-0.15) =
0.73. This means that the combination of these two options results in a 27 % reduction of the energy use.
This section presents the reduction potential per category of improvement options. Reduction percentages are
based calculated compared to the 2.3 MJ per passenger kilometre of the standard 1990 petrol passenger car.
Implementing category 1 improvement options.
Table 2 shows the results of the implementation of the category 1 improvement option. As costs are not a consideration,
all options in the category are implemented.
Table 2. Reduction percentages compared to 1990 in 2020 and 2050 with category 1
improvement options
Passenger car type 2020 2050
Petrol passenger car with MF, ITA, IIC, CVT 6
22 % 29 %
Diesel passenger car with MF, ITA, IIC, CVT 30 % 39 %
Table 2 shows that technological options result in a considerable energy reduction potential, without requiring
major behavioural adaptations. The results in table 2 are corrected for the assumed weight increase. Without
the weight increase, reduction percentages of 37% would be possible in 2050 with the petrol passenger car with
MF, ITA, IIC and CVT.
Implementing category 1 and 2 improvement options
The category 2 improvement options contain the more complicated options. Three new vehicles are introduced.
The immature fuel cell technology will not yet be available in 2020, but will be a very promising option for
2050. The electric vehicle is somewhat more difficult to implement than the hybrid or fuel cell passenger car,
because of its limited driving range. It is therefore assumed that the electric vehicle can contribute to 70% of
the total vehicle fleet.
For both the hybrid and the electric vehicle, the ERE value of electricity is of great importance for calculating
the reduction potential of the vehicle. Therefore, these vehicles are showed twice in table 3, once with a high
ERE value (2.0 MJ/MJ) and once with a low ERE value (1.2 MJ/MJ). Table 3 gives an overview of the reduction
percentages possible with both category 1 and 2 improvement options.
Table 3. Reduction percentages compared to 1990 in 2020 and 2050 with category 1 and 2
improvement options
Passenger car type 2020 2050