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Energy use reduction potential of passenger transport in Europe and consequences for
CO2 emission
M.E. Bouwman and H.C. Moll
Center for Energy and Environmental Studies IVEM, Groningen University,
Nijenborgh 4, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands
tel. +31 50 3634609; e-mail M.Bouwman@fwn.rug.nl
Abstract
In order to contribute to a sustainable society, considerable reduction in the energy use and CO2 emission
should be achieved. This paper presents a methodology to explore the energy use reduction potential of the
transportation sector. Three types of options are defined emphasising on technological, infrastructural and
behavioural change. With technological and infrastructural options, an energy reduction of over 50% by 2050
can be realised. In order to achieve further energy reductions, also options with large behavioural impact should
be implemented. This results in an 80% energy reduction potential in the transportation sector by the year
2050. The reduction potential for CO2 emission can be increased compared to the energy use reduction
potential by introducing a fuel mix with a low carbon content. If a growing mobility demand is incorporated in
the analyses, the total savings are smaller.
Introduction
The present use of energy and materials and the emission of greenhouse gases of Western Europe contribute
substantially to global resource depletion and global climate change. To contribute to global sustainability, i.e.
stabilisation at 1990 emission level by the year 2050 (Houghton et al., 1995) and leaving room for development
outside the Western world, considerable reductions of the use of energy and materials are required, resulting in
the required reduction of greenhouse gases (mainly CO2).
There is a variety of reduction options such as technological improvements, infrastructure modifications and
behavioural change. Technological improvements aim at increasing the energy and material efficiency and at
substitutions, resulting in a lower overall energy and material consumption. Some technological options
demand large behavioural adaptations e.g. shifting from private to public transportation. Some consequential
substitutions require also a new or a heavily modified infrastructure e.g. to sell a new energy carrier, or to
provide the infrastructure for increased use of public transportation. All such options can be evaluated
individually on their potential to reduce CO2 emissions.
Transport i.e. passenger and freight transport by road and railways contributes for about a quarter (OECD/IEA,
1997) [14 EJ/a] to the total energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD Europe. This share justifies a
specific assessment of reduction options in the transportation sector. Moreover, a substantial growth (RIVM,
1992) is foreseen for the performance - expressed in passenger kilometres and ton kilometres - with possibly a
related growth in energy requirements and CO2 emissions.
To stabilise the energy requirement and emissions by transport, at least the impact per unit of performance has
to be halved in he period 2000 - 2050. An equitable distribution of CO2 emissions on a global level in 2050
requires an absolute reduction to one fifth of the current energy consumption and emission levels for OECD
Europe (cf. Mulder and Biesiot, 1998). Combined with the expected growth of transport this long term
reduction objective implies a reduction of the impact per unit of performance to 10% of the present one.
This paper calculates the reduction potential of total energy use of and emissions from passenger transport in
OECD Europe. The general aim is to achieve a 50% reduction by 2020, and a 90% reduction in 2050.
Technological improvements, infrastructure modifications and behavioural change are all considered,
regardless of their implementation problems. This approach yields an indication of the reduction potential. The
reduction potential is calculated for both the individual category of options, and the combined total.