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What are the dynamics of the materials system; is long-term planning possible and sensible ?
The dynamics of the matarials system are determined by the pace of technological change and the life span of
capital equipment. Regarding technological change, development of new technology for bulk materials requires
a period of several decades from labscale to a significant section of the market. As a consequence of such slow
system dynamics, long term planning is possible.
Should technological development be considered in the analysis ?
Technological development is one of the key driving forces that determine the system configuration. Within a
time horizon of half a century, technology will change significantly. In the framework of the energy and materials
system, major changes can be expected in power generation (gasification technology, new technology for
renewables), in the transportation sector (fuel cells, electric vehicles, ethanol), for materials production
(smelting processes for iron production, near net shape casting, biomaterials). Regarding product use, technological
development seems to be a less important driving force. For recycling, cheap materials separation technology
and improved recycling technology for plastics pose a challenge.
How interact the improvement options in the materials system ?
Significant emission reduction in materials production and electricity production reduces the cost-effectiveness
of emission reduction in materials use.
To what extent can materials options reduce greenhouse gas emissions ?
The materials system can contribute up to 1200 Mt CO2-equivalents of emission reduction.
How compare the costs of these materials related emission reduction options to the costs of energy related
emission reduction options ?
Emission reduction in the materials system contributes up to 50% to the total emission reduction for a fixed
emission penalty. This figure shows that the costs are in line with the costs for emission reduction options in
the energy system.
Which strategies should be further developed (and which strategies not) ?
Greenhouse gas emission penalties will have much more impact on materials production and waste handling
than on materials consumption.
End-of-pipe technology does already receive a lot of attention. More attention should be paid to feedstock
substitution in the petrochemical industry, to improved materials quality, materials substitution/product redesign,
and to the GHG consequences of future waste management technologies. Carbon storage in products
seems a less relevant strategy at acceptable emission penalty levels. The potential for increased recycling seems
to be limited.
It is possible to achieve a factor four reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions in the materials system through
an improved materials efficiency of the economy without affecting the lifestyle. A factor 10 is not possible with
the improvement options and demand growth paths that have been considered in this study. Product re-design,
increased product life and improved materials quality are examples of promising options that are not yet fully
included in the calculations. More attention for this type of improvement strategies is warranted.
References