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[MT CO2 EQUIV./YEAR]<br />

1400<br />

1200<br />

1000<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200<br />

0<br />

BC<br />

50 ECU/T 200 ECU/T<br />

20 ECU/T 100 ECU/T<br />

OTHER<br />

WASTE<br />

MANAGEMENT<br />

MATERIALS<br />

EFFICIENCY<br />

MATERIALS<br />

SUBSTITUTION<br />

OTHER RESOURCES<br />

SUBSTITUTION<br />

PETROCHEMICAL FEEDSTOCK<br />

SUBSTITUTION<br />

END-OF-PIPE<br />

Figure 9 Contribution of individual materials strategies, 2030, increasing emission penalties<br />

The impact of GHG emission reduction on individual materials use and production<br />

The changing materials consumption due to GHG emission reduction is shown in Figure 10. The figure shows<br />

the impact of a penalty of 200 ECU/t CO2. The consumption of cement decreases, while the consumption of<br />

wood and of aluminium increases. This change can be attributed to materials substitution in the transportation<br />

sector and materials substitution in the building sector.<br />

SHIFT [%]<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

-20<br />

-40<br />

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050<br />

[YEAR]<br />

CEMENT STEEL PE PAPER SAWN WOOD ALUMINIUM<br />

Figure 10 Shifts in materials consumption due to GHG emission reduction, 200 ECU/t<br />

CO2 reduction case<br />

The impact of GHG emission penalties on the materials production of aluminium, cement, and ethylene is<br />

shown in Figures 11-13. The figures show a significant switch of production technology and of production location<br />

(for aluminium, based on hydroelectricity based production in Iceland).

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