PDF format (503 kB) - ECN

[MT CO2 EQUIV./YEAR]
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
NOT COVERED
0
1990 2000 2010 2020
[YEAR]
2030 2040 2050
Figure 6 Base case GHG emissions for the energy system and the integrated energy and materials system
(E+M)
The emission reduction for the integrated energy and materials system (E+M) is shown in Figure 7. The figure
shows that a reduction of the total GHG emissions from 4500 Mt to less than 1000 Mt in 2030 is achieved if a
(high) penalty of 500 ECU/t CO2 equivalent is introduced. This is a reduction of more than 75%. This result
shows that a factor 4 emission reduction is possible, even in a situation with growing demand. The emission
penalty may seem unlikely high, but the factor 4 emission reduction is an ultimate goal for industrialized countries
in order to minimize the risk for major climate change.
Note the high contribution of CO2 to the total GHG emissions in the base case. Autonomous developments reduce
emissions of other GHGs (e.g. the closure of the German and UK coal mines and the reduction of waste
disposal).
[MT CO2 EQUIV./YEAR]
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
BC
50 ECU/T CO2 200 ECU/T CO2
20 ECU/T CO2 100 ECU/T CO2 500 ECU/T CO2
Figure 7 Changing GHG emissions with increasing emission penalties, 2030
IMPORTS
PFC
N2O
CH4
CO2
E+M
E