UNIVERSITÄT POTSDAM - Prof. Dr. Paul JJ Welfens

Tab 9: Sources of Growth in the Business Sector, Germany 1961 - 1990
Source Average annual percentage changes
61 - 90 61 - 65 66 - 70 71 - 75 76 - 80 81 - 85 86 - 90
k t 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.8 1.0
l t 0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.6 0.5 -0.6 1.1
pat t−2 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3
lex t 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
tc t 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.7
Total:
fitted 3.3 5.2 4.3 2.3 3.2 0.9 4.0
realized 3.3 5.2 4.4 1.7 3.6 1.1 3.8
Note: Differences between the sums of the individual components of the growth rates and the fitted total
growth rates are caused by rounding up and down and by joint effects.
Due to the approximation of different sources or causes of technical progress and of
information and communication by means of appropriate indicator variables, it was
then possible to assess, at least roughly, the effects of these variables as well as of the
usual production factors on the growth of real gross value-added. The results of the expost
forecasts of average annual growth rates for the whole observation period as well
as for different subperiods are reported in Table 9. The comparison of the realized total
and the forecasted total growth rates of real gross value-added in the business sector
without agriculture, forestry, and fishing and without housing rental shows a good fitting
of the model to the observed data. Only in the first half of the seventies when the
first oil price crisis takes place does the model overestimate the growth rate by 0.6 percentage
points. Partly to even things out, the model underestimates growth by 0.4 percentage
points in the second half of the seventies.
Turning to the individual factors, it can be seen that the development of the
capital stock has the greatest impact on the growth rates of gross value-added in most
cases, accounting for 0.8 to 2.5 percentage points. This result is in accord with the results
for other countries (cf. BUDD / HOBBIS, 1989a, BUDD / HOBBIS, 1989b and
COE / MOGHADAM, 1993). The influence of telephone calls (as an indicator for information
and communication) is in second position, accounting for 0.7 to 1.7 percentage
points of the average annual growth rates. Here, it must be stressed, that even in
phases of low growth rates this influence was a substantial engine of the remaining
economic growth. The impact of the factor labor on economic growth is strongly influenced
by fluctuations of the number of employees due to business cycles. Especially
the reductions of the number of employees after the first and second oil price crises had
negative impacts on economic growth. On the other hand, the strong increase of the
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