Bilansi uspjeha - Raiffeisen Bank

Macroeconomic Aggregates
Macroeconomic overview
Macroeconomic Aggregates
Implementation of economic reforms and accelerated transition processes in all parts of the economic
system in this year also generated continuation of growing trend of business activities in Bosnia and
Herzegovina. According to the projected data, actual growth rate of gross domestic product in year
2005 was 5.8%, while forecasts for year 2006 indicate that actual growth of GDP should remain on
the existing levels. Simultaneously, other fundamental economic indicators also show positive values,
which especially reflects in growth of industrial production, which in December, in comparison to the
same month of the previous year, in Federation B&H increased by 5.1%, and in Republika Srpska by
12.9%.
Apart from the previous years when inflation was persistantly very low, under influence of global
factors, especially growth of power sources in the world market, in this year pressure development
on increase of prices of consumer goods is evident, and average inflation rate was 3.6 percent.
Introduction of value added tax (VAT) in year 2006 should lead to continuation of inflation pressure
which, according to the existing assessments, will produce value of average inflation at the level
above 4 percentage points. On the other hand, slight improvement of life standard is visible through
the prism of trend of net personal income which in 2005 increased per nominal rate of 7.3% while
its actual growth rate was 2.9%. Besides problems related to the mismatch with international statistic
standards, it should be pointed out that registered unemployment rate at the end of the year was
44%, while according to survey unemployment was significantly lower. The aforementioned supports
the thesis that there is a significant part of unregistered business activity in B&H which disables exact
measurement of actual level of unemployment.
Deficits of current account balance in relative amount of 23.9 of share in GDP is result of foreign
trade deficit in amount of EUR 3.7 billion. Coverage of import by exported goods was 34.4%. Such
results indicate to the need for providing incentives to foreign direct investments with purpose of
strengthening competitive ability of economy and its export orientation. Total foreign investments in
year 2005 reached the value of EUR 338 mio. At the same time, net FX reserves had value of EUR
2.14 billion, while external debt amounted to EUR 2.15 billion.
Economic indicators
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Nominal GDP (billion EUR) 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.6 7.1
Real change of GDP (% yoy) 4.5 5.5 3.0 5.0 5.8
Industrial production (% yoy) -2.0 11.5 3.8 12.0 7.0
Unemployment rate (%) 40.0 40.5 41.5 42.0 44.0
Production prices (aug, % yoy) 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.0
Consumer prices (aug, % yoy) 3.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.6
Government finances (% BDP) -3.3 -0.2 0.8 1.8 0.5
Current account balance (% GDP) -16.1 -22.1 -24.5 -23.5 -23.9
FX reserves (billion EUR ) 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.1
EUR/BAM (aug) 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
EUR/USD(aug) 0.90 0.95 1.13 1.24 1.24
Source: Thomson Financial Datastream, CB BiH, Raiffeisen RESEARCH Austria
www.raiffeisenbank.ba
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