Final Environmental Impact Statement

Vestal Final Environmental Impact Statement Chapter 3
landscape would be those that occur as a result of natural occurrences, wildfire
suppression or those resulting from other project decisions.
Direct and Indirect Effects
The current mountain pine beetle outbreak is expected to run its course with much of the
area expected to be heavily impacted by 2018. Changes to fire hazard within the project
area are expected resulting in substantial areas of dead trees. Trees that die as a result of
MPB infestation may break or fall within 1 to 3 years.
No improvement in condition class is expected to occur with this alternative. The project
area would continue to possess a high risk of losing key ecosystem components, resulting
in increased fire size, intensity and severity. The MPB disturbance is not a fire
disturbance therefore would not improve the existing fuel conditions. The arrangement
of the fuels would change under post MPB conditions but no treatment of that vegetation
would occur. This trend would continue until a fire disturbance.
The actions associated with this alternative are not substantial enough to significantly
alter human activities or usage in the area therefore fire risk is not expected to change
because the probability of an ignition occurring is not expected to change.
According to Langowski (2006), research has shown that post-epidemic stands had
increased rates of surface fire spread, fireline intensity and total heat release. They also
had increased chances for crown fire initiation but decreased chances for active crown
fire spread. Chances for crown fire initiation were also greater due to larger amounts of
dead aerial fuels in the overstory. Observations and theoretical consideration indicate
that both fire severity and probability of crown fire may increase following outbreaks due
to increased fuel loading and changed fuel characteristics.
Crown fire hazard in MPB affected stands can be best described as bi-modal. Crown fire
hazard is higher than in non-MPB affected stands during the 2-3 years post-epidemic
while most of the dead needles are retained on the killed trees and again following snag
fall and stand-re-initiation when surface fire spread and intensity would be higher than in
non-MPB affected stands due to increased surface fuel loads.
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