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14 | COMMENT & OPINION Published Saturdays since 1996 by Cathedral Communications Inc. Publications Mail Agreement No | 1004840 WOOLWICH OBSERVER 20-B Arthur Street North, Elmira, Ontario, Canada N3B 1Z9 Phone: 519.669.5790 Toll Free: 1.888.966.5942 Fax: 519.669.5753 ASSOCIATIONS The Observer is a member of the Ontario Community Newspaper Association [OCNA], Canadian Community Newspaper Association [CCNA], Ontario Press Council, and The Greater KW Chamber of Commerce. LETTER POLICY The Observer welcomes letters to the editor on topics of interest to our readers. Letters may be edited for brevity, grammar, and legal considerations. All letters must be signed and contain the writer’s full name and telephone number for verification purposes. Unsigned or anonymous letters will not be considered for publication. If you have a legitimate concern and cannot sign your name to a letter, please contact the editor to discuss alternative means of resolving the issue. This newspaper declines announcements, poetry and thank-you letters in the opinion section. Maximum suggested length is 500 words. PRESS COMPLAINTS General Inquiry | EXT 100 info@woolwichobserver.com Joe Merlihan, Publisher | EXT 107 jmerlihan@woolwichobserver.com Steve Kannon, Editor | EXT 103 skannon@woolwichobserver.com Joni Miltenburg, Reporter | EXT 101 jmiltenburg@woolwichobserver.com Marc Miquel Helsen, Reporter | EXT 102 mmhelsen@woolwichobserver.com Donna Rudy, Sales Manager | EXT 104 drudy@woolwichobserver.com Pat Merlihan, Production Mgr | EXT 105 pmerlihan@woolwichobserver.com Matthew French, Production | EXT 108 mfrench@woolwichobserver.com Lindsay Lehman, Production | EXT 109 llehman@woolwichobserver.com www.ObserverXtra.com CIRCULATION The Observer is an audited controlled circulation publication. Canadian Media Circulation Audit calculates and prepares The Observer circulation reports | 14,942. DELIVERY Delivery concerns can be addressed by contacting our office during office hours or by visiting www.ObserverXtra.com and send us a message. SUBSCRIPTIONS Annual subscriptions are available at a rate of $37.10 (includes GST) for delivery within Canada. Contact the office or email sales@woolwichobserver.com for further details. All issues from 2006 on are available online free of charge. The Observer is a member of the Ontario Press Council which considers complaints against member newspapers. For more information about the Press Council contact www.ontpress.com. COPYRIGHT The entire contents of The Observer and online edition are protected by copyright. No portion thereof is to be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the specific permission of the publisher. Reproduction rights can be obtained from AC- CESS Copyright located at 1 Yonge St., 1900, Toronto, ON M5E 1E5 FAX: 416.868.1621 »CARTOON »EDITORIAL Divisive Harper must step aside In having the House prorogued, Stephen Harper has missed the opportunity to do the honourable thing by resigning. Even with this move – not unexpected from someone of his ilk – he still must go. All of the events unfolding on Parliament Hill – and all of what will follow – are the direct responsibility of the Prime Minister. He set the fire, and he’s been fanning the flames. The blatantly political move in last week’s economic update was entirely his, revealing his true colours despite claims this would be a more cooperative Parliament. Even with the House suspended courtesy of Governor-General Michaëlle Jean’s ill-considered decision, Harper still does not have the confidence of the majority of Canadians. His position is even less legitimate given Thursday’s tactics. The only way for the Conservatives to regain any credibility is to jettison Harper, who Canadians have three times judged undeserving to lead a majority government. He’s clearly buying time to cling to power, his only goal, knowing his career would be over if the Liberal/NDP coalition forms a government. »VERBATIM »THE MONITOR “This is what so many of us were worried about during the election: the context of a Tory victory in an economic crisis, because we know that there is this pattern of using an economic crisis to push through policies that were nowhere during the campaign.” Naomi Klein reacts to the happenings on Parliament Hill Backed into a corner, and seeing power slip away from him, Harper showed he wants to stay at all costs, lying, misleading the public about how parliamentary democracy works and playing the worst kinds of divisive politics. In seeking prorogation, he employed delaying tactics he railed against when in opposition during Paul Martin’s Liberal minority government. Equally hypocritical are his arguments against coalitions and seeking the support of the Bloc Québécois. He’s attempted both, having suggested the same thing to Gilles Duceppe in 2004. And newly revealed documents show the Alliance party seeking a partnership with the Bloc as early as 2000. Since his first minority win in 2006, Harper has often relied on the support of the other parties, including the BQ, to get measures through the House. Since going on the offensive against the Liberal-NDP coalition, Harper has been taking broad shots at the BQ, attempting to paint the support of Bloc MPs as somehow illegitimate, despite relying on them himself at times. This strategy risks THE OBSERVER | Saturday, December 06, 2008 alienating Quebecers, a group he had been courting – extra funding, nationhood status – in a bid to gain a majority. His tactics are transparent: polarize the country by shouting “separatist” at every opportunity, including the inflammatory address on national television Wednesday night. Following the decision to suspend Parliament, Harper had the temerity to suggest he’s been preaching cooperation all along. He also referred to a fiscal stimulus plan for the economy as his mandate from October’s election, despite repeatedly telling Canadians there was no economic crisis and that his party would have no part of any bailouts. To be clear, the coalition alternative is no panacea, yet remains a better choice than a government led by a prime minister devoid of his remaining credibility. The time lag – the House won’t sit again until Jan. 26 – should allow the Liberals to push Stéphane Dion aside to bring someone such as Ralph Goodale forward as the interim leader, and perhaps prime minister, when MPs vote on the Conservative budget. People living in poverty in the Great Lakes basin may be experiencing an increased burden of high air pollution from industrial facilities in their communities; 37 communities have high poverty rates at or above the national average (11.8%) and high releases of toxic air pollutants. Canadian Environmental Law Association
THE OBSERVER | Saturday, December 06, 2008 COMMENT & OPINION | 15 »HARD TALK | RAFE MAIR Coalition versus the Tories? A pox on all their houses Wow! What larks! Could the scene in Ottawa happen anywhere else? We stand on the cusp of a political miracle which might see the rejected and dejected leader of the Liberal party about to become the prime minister of Canada. The facts are not much in dispute. The Conservatives, a minority government, baited the opposition with a bill that would take away the public funds they get for election purposes. Yes, there it is folks. We may have a situation where voters will be asked to support a coalition of Liberals, New Democrats and separatists because these three parties have had their taxpayer dollars for election expenses taken away. Can’t you see and hear voter indignation? Stand up to those wicked Tories who would take away from us good guys taxpayer-funded lolly designed to help us get elected! I can hear the cry rolling across the nation … give the Liberals, BQ, NDP and Greens their slush funds back! Now if that isn’t an emotionpacked issue, I don’t know what is. I have to tell you up front. I don’t like Stephen Harper or his government. The problem is, I don’t like the others much either. But if I were asked to vote for a coalition put together by bringing in the Bloc Quebecois, I just couldn’t do it. Politics and cynicism are synonyms but this would be too much. I have to think that Jack Layton and Stéphane Dion have thought of this and realize that they could be forcing an election »INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS | GWYNNE DYER Four harsh truths about climate change About two years ago, I realized that the military in various countries were starting to do climate change scenarios in-house – scenarios that started with the scientific predictions about rising temperatures, falling crop yields, and other physical effects – and examining what that would do to politics and strategy. The scenarios predicted failed states proliferating because governments couldn’t feed their people; waves of climate refugees washing up against the borders of more fortunate countries; even wars between countries that shared the same rivers. So I started interviewing everybody I could get access to: not only senior military people, but scientists, diplomats and politicians. About 70 interviews, a dozen countries and 18 months later, I have reached four conclusions that I didn’t even suspect when I began the process. The first is simply this: the scientists are really scared. Their observations over the past two or three years suggest that everything is happening much faster than their climate models predicted. This creates a dilemma for them, because for the past decade they have been struggling against a well-funded the public doesn’t want over a trivial issue brought on because the Liberals and New Democrats are cynical enough, indeed unpatriotic enough, to bring the Bloc Quebecois into the government. The scent of power, even momentary power, is very tempting. It does strange things to otherwise quite normal people. But I simply can’t believe that Dion and Layton could be so dumb. If they are, no wonder the public gave Harper office instead of them. Now we have the constitutional lawyers prowling through dusty old manuscripts to see what happens if Harper is defeated in the House and pops across the way to Governor General Michaëlle Jean’s digs asking for an election writ. Her Excellency will have been well prepared with the precedent set in 1926 in what’s known as the King/Byng affair, the only problem being no one can agree on what precedent was set. In 1925, then prime minister Mackenzie King formed a minority Liberal government. In 1926, he was defeated on a confidence motion whereupon he went to governor general Lord Byng and sought dissolution of Parliament and an election writ. Byng refused and called upon Tory leader Arthur Meighen to form a government, which he did. It lasted a week, Meighen lost a confidence motion and an election ensued which was fought by King on the basis that Lord Byng was wrong. King was returned with a majority. Before going on, two important constitutional events took place after the King/Byng dustup that may well affect what interpretation one might infer campaign that cast doubt on the phenomenon of climate change. Now, finally, people and even governments are listening. Even in the United States, the world headquarters of climate change denial, 85 per cent of the population now sees climate change as a major issue, and both presidential candidates in last month’s election promised 80 per cent cuts in American emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. The scientists are understandably reluctant at this point to announce publicly that their predictions were wrong; that it’s really much worse and the targets will have to be revised. Most of them are waiting for overwhelming proof that climate change really is moving faster, even though they are already privately convinced that it is. So governments, now awakened to the danger at last, are still working to the wrong emissions target. The real requirement, if we are to avoid runaway global warming, is probably 80 per cent cuts by 2030, and almost no burning whatever of fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil) by 2050. The second conclusion is that the generals are right. Food is the key issue, and world food supply is already very tight: we have eaten up about two-thirds of the world grain reserve in the past five years, leaving only 50 days’ worth in store. Even a one degree C (1.8 degrees F) rise in average global temperature will take a major from that crisis. At the time of the crisis, the Governor- General was seen not only as the King’s representative in Canada but also seen as representing Great Britain. In other words, the GG not only was the king’s Canadian representative, he also represented the residual powers of the monarch as king of the United Kingdom. After the crisis and after King was returned with a majority, the U.K. government issued a declaration that the role of Governor General was as a representative of the sovereign in Canada only. Known as the Balfour Declaration, it acknowledged that the Dominions were equal in status to the United Kingdom, and that each Governor General would henceforth function solely as a representative of the Crown in their respective Dominions, and not as an agent of the British government. Arcane, perhaps, but none the less important for that. Next came the 1931 Statute of Westminster, which changed Canada from being a “self governing Dominion” to a full and equal member of the British Commonwealth of Nations, later simply the Commonwealth of Nations. Here’s what section 2 (2) says: “No law and no provision of any law made after the commencement of this Act by the Parliament of a Dominion shall be void or inoperative on the ground that it is repugnant to the law of England, or to the provisions of any existing or future Act of Parliament of the United Kingdom, or to any order, rule, or regulation made under any such Act, and the powers of the Parliament of a Dominion shall include bite out of food production in almost all the countries that are closer to the equator than to the poles, and that includes almost all of the planet’s bread-baskets. So the international grain market will wither for lack of supplies. Countries that can no longer feed their people will not be able to buy their way out of trouble by importing grain from elsewhere, even if they have the money. Starving refugees will flood across borders, whole nations will collapse into anarchy – and some countries may make a grab for their neighbours’ land or water. These are scenarios that the Pentagon and other military planning staffs are examining now. They could start to come true as little as 15 or 20 years down the road. If this kind of breakdown becomes widespread, there will be little chance of making or keeping global agreements to curb greenhouse gas emissions and avoid further warming. The third conclusion is that there is a point of no return after which warming becomes unstoppable – and we are probably going to sail right through it. It is the point at which anthropogenic (human-caused) warming triggers huge releases of carbon dioxide from warming oceans, or similar releases of both carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost, or both. Most climate scientists think that point lies not far beyond two de- the power to repeal or amend any such Act, order, rule or regulation in so far as the same is part of the law of the Dominion.” Thus we had a king and he was also king of England but in Ottawa he was the king of Canada with his prerogatives limited by Canadian law and custom. Judging from what I’m reading, modern, which is to say since I left law school in 1956, legal opinion seems to be that if the Tories lose a confidence vote, the Governor General may refuse to give Mr. Harper his election writ and can ask Dion to try to form a government. I respectfully disagree. I believe that since 1926, the Balfour Declaration and the Statute of Westminster in 1931, combined with our Constitution, parliamentary custom is that if a prime minister seeks dissolution and an election writ, he shall have them. It is a matter of custom in the absence of specific constitutional fiat. The custom in the U.K. has certainly changed to where no monarch would dare refuse a prime minister his election and I believe that’s the custom now in Canada, though I admit this is inferential not stated. Now that’s behind us, let me make what I believe should be the final verdict. In our House of Commons we have an enclave of childish adults who, rather than deal with the immediate and soon to be upon us even worse financial crisis, play with public affairs as if they were the students’ council of a small high school (with apologies to students’ councils across the land.) grees C hotter (3.6 degrees F). Once that point is passed, the human race loses control: cutting our own emissions may not stop the warming. But we are almost certainly going to miss our deadline. We cannot get the 10 lost years back, and by the time a new global agreement to replace the Kyoto accord is negotiated and put into effect, there will probably not be enough time left to stop the warming short of the point where we must not go. So – final conclusion – we will have to cheat. In the past two years, various scientists have suggested several “geo-engineering” techniques for holding the temperature down directly. We might put a kind of temporary chemical sunscreen in the stratosphere by seeding it with sulphur particles, for example, or we could artificially thicken low-lying maritime clouds to reflect more sunlight. These are not permanent solutions; merely ways of winning more time to cut our emissions without triggering runaway warming in the meanwhile. But the situation is getting very grave, and we are probably going to see the first experiments with these techniques within five years. There is a way through this crisis, but it isn’t easy and there is no guarantee of success. As the Irishman said to the lost traveller: If that’s where you want to go, Sir, I wouldn’t start from here.
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