Brumm Swine Consultancy, Inc - iGrow

Brumm Swine Consultancy, Inc
PO Box 2242
North Mankato, MN 56002-2242
Office/Fax 507-625-5935
mbrumm@hickorytech.net
Commentary on USDA March 1 Hogs and Pigs Inventory Report
State Breeding Market Total
% of US
Inventory
Pig
crop
Dec-Feb
Sows
farrowing Pigs/litter
000 hd 000 hd
Iowa 1010 18690 19700 30.4% 4944 480 10.30
N Carolina 860 7740 8600 13.3% 4356 440 9.90
Minnesota 550 7050 7600 11.7% 2900 290 10.00
Illinois 510 4140 4650 7.2% 2525 255 9.90
Indiana 290 3460 3750 5.8% 1378 145 9.50
Nebraska 390 2710 3100 4.8% 1820 175 10.40
Missouri 360 2290 2650 4.1% 1976 190 10.40
Oklahoma 410 1920 2330 3.6% 1853 190 9.75
Ohio 165 1915 2080 3.2% 863 89 9.70
Kansas 170 1640 1810 2.8% 763 82 9.30
S Dakota 175 1105 1280 2.0% 898 88 10.20
Pennsylvania 100 990 1090 1.7% 480 49 9.80
Michigan 110 890 1000 1.5% 495 50 9.90
US 5820 59052 64872 28681 2877 9.97
As has been the case for quite some time, no big surprises in this quarterly USDA report.
Not in the report is the impact of sale weights on pig inventories. Average slaughter
weights in the US continue to creep upwards.
Some of the push for new wean-finish and grow-finish facilities in the upper Midwest is
most likely the need for more space to grow pigs to the heavier weights. One of the charts
included in this commentary is the Iowa-Southern Minnesota weekly slaughter weights
thru the week ending March 24, 2012. Even as rates of gain have improved due to
healthier pigs, better genetics and better diet formulations, the need for more space can’t
be ignored.
Two of the graphics that I’ve included in this commentary are the average market
inventory per breeding animal and the quarterly kept for market inventory since 1988. In
both cases these show a steady upward progression. In both graphics, some of the
progression is due to the improved productivity of the breeding herd, but I also think
some of the progression is due to the heavier sale weights.

Several years ago, in a survey done for a National Pork Board project, the average
stocking density of grow-finish facilities across the US was 7.2 ft 2 /pig. Many facilities
are still stocked at this density, but sale weights have increased at least 8-10 lb since the
survey was taken. After last summer’s tremendous heat impact in July, many producers
are making investments in more facilities to allow slightly more space per pig and/or to
maintain space as sow productivity has increased.
Iowa continues to add pigs relative to other states. It now has 31.65% of the US kept for
market inventory. On a year to year comparison, North Carolina continues to loose
market pig inventory. I suspect this loss in inventory is showing up in Indiana which
continues its gradual increase that is almost identical to the North Carolina loss.
Illinois continues its slow rebound in pig numbers. It now has 8.76% of the US breeding
herd, the largest share since the September 1, 1995 report. The 7.01% share of the kept
for market inventory is also the largest share since September 1, 2002.

Mkt inventory per Breeding Inventory
000 Head
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Market inventory per breeding inventory
Top 6 states in total inventory - Mar 1, 2012
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc
USDA Report
Market Inventory
5 Leading States - 69.6% of US on 3/1/12
Ia NC Mn Il In
USDA Report
IL
In
Ia
Mn
NC
Ne
US

Market, 000 Hd
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
Quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs
Kept for Market
Date
Quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs
Breeding Herd
59,052,000
y = 1.4636x + 166.84
R² = 0.7901
5,820,000
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
Breeding, 000 Hd

Pigs/litter
000 Head
11.00
10.75
10.50
10.25
10.00
9.75
9.50
9.25
9.00
8.75
8.50
8.25
8.00
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc
Pig per litter
USDA Hogs and Pigs Report
Month
Iowa Kept for Market Inventory
USDA Report
10.0
y = 0.0109x + 8.6151
R² = 0.9336
18,690,000

000 Head
000 Head
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc
N Carolina Kept for Market Inventory
USDA Report
Minnesota Kept for Market Inventory
USDA Report
7,740,000
7,050,000

000 Head
000 Head
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc
Illinois Kept for Market Inventory
USDA Report
Indiana Kept for Market Inventory
USDA Report
4,140,000
3,460,000

000 Head
% of US Inventory
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc
3/1/85
3/1/86
3/1/87
3/1/88
3/1/89
3/1/90
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
Nebraska Kept for Market Swine Inventory
3/1/91
3/1/92
3/1/93
3/1/94
3/1/95
3/1/96
3/1/97
3/1/98
3/1/99
3/1/00
3/1/01
3/1/02
USDA Report
3/1/03
3/1/04
3/1/05
3/1/06
Iowa's Share
Breed Kept for Market
USDA Report
2,710,000
3/1/07
3/1/08
3/1/09
3/1/10
3/1/11
3/1/12
31.65%
3/1/13
17.35%

% of US Inventory
% of US Inventory
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
N Carolina Share
Breed Kept for Market
USDA Report
Minnesota's Share
Breed Kept for Market
USDA Report
14.78%
13.11%
11.94%
9.45%

% of US Inventory
% of US
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
Nebraska's Share
Breeding Kept for Market
USDA Report
Indiana Share
Breed Kept for Market
6.70%
4.59%
5.86%
5.0%

% of US Inventory
% of US Inventory
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
Missouri Share
Breed Kept for Market
USDA Report
Oklahoma Share
Breed Kept for Market
USDA Report
6.19%
3.88%
7.04%
3.12%

% of US Inventory
% of US Inventory
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
Ohio's Swine Industry
Breed Kept for Market
USDA Report
USDA Report
3.27%
2.84%
Kansas's Swine Industry
Breed Kept for Market
2.92%
2.78%

% of US Inventory
Breeding herd (000)
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
South Dakota's Swine Industry
Dr Mike Brumm
Brumm Swine Consultancy, Inc
Breed Kept for Market
USDA Report
Canadian Swine Inventory
Breeding herd Kept for Mkt
Report
10,708
1,312
3.01%
1.87%
15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000
Kept for Mkt (000)

000 hd Kept for Breeding
Lb
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
280
275
270
265
260
255
250
Combined N American Inventory - up thru Dec/Jan 2011/12
Breeding Herd Kept for Mkt
USDA Report (+1 mo for CA)
7,114,000 breeding
71,475,000 market
IA-SMN Liveweight at Slaughter
www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/NW_LS720.txt
2010 2011 2007-2011 2012
Week
75,000
72,000
69,000
66,000
63,000
60,000
Kept for Mkt, 000 hd

Pigs/wk
$/hd
200,000
160,000
120,000
80,000
40,000
$60
$55
$50
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
-
Canadian Live Pig Exports to US
ams.usda.gov/mnreports/WA_LS637.TXT
Mkt Barrows and Gilts Feeder Pigs
Week Ending
SEW vs 2010/2011 and 10 yr Price, USDA
2002-2011 Average Price $34.67/hd
Dr Mike Brumm
BSC, Inc.
2010 2001 thru 2010 2011 2012
2002 $27.90
2003 $30.18
2004 $33.13
2005 $37.78
2006 $35.21
2007 $36.07
2008 $34.16
2009 $32.25
2010 $41.89
2011 $38.02
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29
Week
33 37 41 45 49