Report in English with a Dutch summary (KCE reports 45A)
Report in English with a Dutch summary (KCE reports 45A) Report in English with a Dutch summary (KCE reports 45A)
120 Screening for Colorectal Cancer KCE reports vol.45 Sensitivity analysis Rather surprisingly, Wong did not perform sensitivity analysis on his cost effectiveness outcomes and Ladabaum only performed such an analysis on the demand for health services. Three studies did not perform sensitivity analysis with respect to FOBT or colonoscopy compared to no screening. The Israeli study only performed sensitivity analysis on the ICER of colonoscopy compared with FOBT+SIG, the Taiwanese study identified the influential parameters on the ICER for stool DNA testing compared with no screening, and Frazier performed the analysis on the ICER of rehydrated FOBT with 5-yearly sigmoidoscopy versus no screening. O Leary performed a sensitivity analysis on costs. The cost of the screening program was an important determinant of the cost-effectiveness of FOBT. The ICER of biennial FOBT screening was increased slightly from 24.710 (AUD41.183) to 29.295 (AUD48.824) if administrative costs for the screening program increased from 45 (AUD75) to 60 (AUD100) but decreased dramatically to 9455 (AUD15.758) if these costs were omitted. With respect to discounting there were no surprising results, i.e. outcomes were better when not discounting the benefits, the opposite happened for costs, and there was a relatively larger influence on the ICER of discounting benefits compared to costs. Only two studies performed sensitivity analysis changing screening intervals. O Leary already compared annual and biennial FOBT screening in their base analysis, which provided better cost effectiveness outcomes for the 2-yearly screening schedule. Sonnenberg changed both the frequency of FOBT and colonoscopy. If the frequency of colonoscopy is increased to once every 5 years, the incremental cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy compared with FOBT increases from a baseline value of about 8990 ($11.382) to 21.750 ($27.529). In combination with a lower efficacy (50% instead of 75%) and an 80% compliance (instead of 100%) the ICER would even increase to about 43.100 ($54.561). Shortening the interval of repeated colonoscopy also affects the ICER of FOBT which increases from 7670 ($9705) to 16.390 ($20.746). Reducing the frequency of screening with FOBT from once annually to once every 3 years slightly increased the ICER form 7670 ($9705) to 7775 ($9843), as costs savings became partly negated by fewer life-years saved through early cancer detection (Sonnenberg). Furthermore, according to Sonnenberg, FOBT is particularly sensitive to changes in the compliance rate of repeated testing because it is done more frequently than colonoscopy. For instance, a decrease of compliance with annual test repetition to 90% (base case 100%) increases the ICER of FOBT to about 11.680 ($14.788) (base case 7670 ($9705)). Low compliance with colonoscopy after a positive result on FOBT also renders the initial screening technique less efficacious and increases its associated costs per saved life-year. If only 75% (base case 100%) of positive FOBTs were followed by colonoscopy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of FOBT would increase to 8120 ($10.281). Also in the study of O Leary, ICERs improved if compliance increased. Finally, Maciosek found that adherence was less influential on results than gains in life expectancy and net costs. However, exact outcomes were not presented. Sonnenberg also analysed the influence of changing test characteristics. Improvement of test sensitivity results in detection of cancers at an earlier stage and reduced mortality from colorectal cancer. Improved specificity results in
KCE reports vol.45 Screening for Colorectal Cancer 121 fewer colonoscopies performed after false positive results on FOBT. Within the ranges tested in the sensitivity analysis, the overall influence on the ICER exerted by the sensitivity or specificity of FOBT did not exceed 1580 ($2000). 6.4 CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF THE STUDIES In this part, we will discuss general and some specific problems with the studies included in this overview. Only two studies performed a cost utility analysis (Whynes, 1998, 1999; Stone). Gyrd-Hansen and colleagues decided to ignore the impact on quality of life (QoL) because it was judged that the main outcome of the screening program was life years gained (Gyrd-Hansen, 1998). The most important reason not to adjust for QoL appears to be that QoL data are not readily available. Whynes evaluated the QoL following surgery for colorectal cancer and found that a QoL coefficient for surviving patients lies within the range 0,948 0,981 509. These small factors may indicate adjustment would not be expected to have a great impact on results. However, as mentioned by Flanagan, there may also be ethical issues related to the impact of screening on QoL. False positive FOBT results may increase anxiety in otherwise healthy individuals. Screening may adversely affect the QoL, given that cancers are detected earlier. Patients live longer with knowledge of their disease and, further, the life-years gained may not be lived in perfect health. On the other hand, the life-years gained may be lived in less severe states of the disease. Further research to determine the impact of mass screening on QoL is clearly necessary as these data are missing. The majority of studies have taken the perspective of a third-party payer. Consequently, no indirect costs such as patient time, travel costs, informal carer costs, etc. were included. Also not included were the effects on general consumption and productivity, which would be relevant from a societal perspective 219. Although these costs should not be underestimated, they are mostly omitted in studies. When included, it would be desirable to present results separately to enhance consistency and comparability across studies. Indirect costs may be a decisive factor if decision makers have no preference based on other included factors. Transparency is also an issue. Sources of cost data are often not well described. A lack of detail on cost data means it is not always clear which costs have been included. For example, all studies took into account the cost for FOBT. However, it was not always clear if this was just the cost for the test kit, or if the mailing and test analysis were also included. Or, beyond the immediate investigation of positive FOBT results, several studies did not specify the assumed nature or frequency of follow-up investigations. A limitation to the majority of the studies is that they omitted program-related expenses such as the costs of health promotion, recall systems and extra administrative overheads (Whynes, 1998, 1999, 2004, Helm, Sonnenberg, Frazier, Leshno, Wong, Ladabaum, Maciosek, Wu). Stone argued it was assumed that the program was in steady-state, in order to provide estimates of ongoing annual costs and exclude the higher implementation costs, as well as increased detection of cancer associated with the introduction of a screening program. However, when evaluating a mass screening campaign for colorectal cancer, these costs are real and should be taken into account. The disutility and potential negative health effects associated with complications of colonoscopy were not included in about half of the studies. If the FOBT result is positive, i.e. a false or true positive, colonoscopy test is performed. This can, however, lead to complications such as perforation or bleedings, or
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<strong>KCE</strong> <strong>reports</strong> vol.45 Screen<strong>in</strong>g for Colorectal Cancer 121<br />
fewer colonoscopies performed after false positive results on FOBT. With<strong>in</strong> the<br />
ranges tested <strong>in</strong> the sensitivity analysis, the overall <strong>in</strong>fluence on the ICER<br />
exerted by the sensitivity or specificity of FOBT did not exceed 1580 ($2000).<br />
6.4 CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF THE STUDIES<br />
In this part, we will discuss general and some specific problems <strong>with</strong> the studies<br />
<strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong> this overview.<br />
Only two studies performed a cost utility analysis (Whynes, 1998, 1999; Stone).<br />
Gyrd-Hansen and colleagues decided to ignore the impact on quality of life<br />
(QoL) because it was judged that the ma<strong>in</strong> outcome of the screen<strong>in</strong>g program<br />
was life years ga<strong>in</strong>ed (Gyrd-Hansen, 1998). The most important reason not to<br />
adjust for QoL appears to be that QoL data are not readily available. Whynes<br />
evaluated the QoL follow<strong>in</strong>g surgery for colorectal cancer and found that a QoL<br />
coefficient for surviv<strong>in</strong>g patients lies <strong>with</strong><strong>in</strong> the range 0,948 0,981 509. These<br />
small factors may <strong>in</strong>dicate adjustment would not be expected to have a great<br />
impact on results. However, as mentioned by Flanagan, there may also be<br />
ethical issues related to the impact of screen<strong>in</strong>g on QoL. False positive FOBT<br />
results may <strong>in</strong>crease anxiety <strong>in</strong> otherwise healthy <strong>in</strong>dividuals. Screen<strong>in</strong>g may<br />
adversely affect the QoL, given that cancers are detected earlier. Patients live<br />
longer <strong>with</strong> knowledge of their disease and, further, the life-years ga<strong>in</strong>ed may<br />
not be lived <strong>in</strong> perfect health. On the other hand, the life-years ga<strong>in</strong>ed may be<br />
lived <strong>in</strong> less severe states of the disease. Further research to determ<strong>in</strong>e the<br />
impact of mass screen<strong>in</strong>g on QoL is clearly necessary as these data are miss<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
The majority of studies have taken the perspective of a third-party payer.<br />
Consequently, no <strong>in</strong>direct costs such as patient time, travel costs, <strong>in</strong>formal carer<br />
costs, etc. were <strong>in</strong>cluded. Also not <strong>in</strong>cluded were the effects on general<br />
consumption and productivity, which would be relevant from a societal<br />
perspective 219. Although these costs should not be underestimated, they are<br />
mostly omitted <strong>in</strong> studies. When <strong>in</strong>cluded, it would be desirable to present<br />
results separately to enhance consistency and comparability across studies.<br />
Indirect costs may be a decisive factor if decision makers have no preference<br />
based on other <strong>in</strong>cluded factors.<br />
Transparency is also an issue. Sources of cost data are often not well described.<br />
A lack of detail on cost data means it is not always clear which costs have been<br />
<strong>in</strong>cluded. For example, all studies took <strong>in</strong>to account the cost for FOBT.<br />
However, it was not always clear if this was just the cost for the test kit, or if<br />
the mail<strong>in</strong>g and test analysis were also <strong>in</strong>cluded. Or, beyond the immediate<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestigation of positive FOBT results, several studies did not specify the<br />
assumed nature or frequency of follow-up <strong>in</strong>vestigations.<br />
A limitation to the majority of the studies is that they omitted program-related<br />
expenses such as the costs of health promotion, recall systems and extra<br />
adm<strong>in</strong>istrative overheads (Whynes, 1998, 1999, 2004, Helm, Sonnenberg,<br />
Frazier, Leshno, Wong, Ladabaum, Maciosek, Wu). Stone argued it was assumed<br />
that the program was <strong>in</strong> steady-state, <strong>in</strong> order to provide estimates of ongo<strong>in</strong>g<br />
annual costs and exclude the higher implementation costs, as well as <strong>in</strong>creased<br />
detection of cancer associated <strong>with</strong> the <strong>in</strong>troduction of a screen<strong>in</strong>g program.<br />
However, when evaluat<strong>in</strong>g a mass screen<strong>in</strong>g campaign for colorectal cancer,<br />
these costs are real and should be taken <strong>in</strong>to account.<br />
The disutility and potential negative health effects associated <strong>with</strong> complications<br />
of colonoscopy were not <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong> about half of the studies. If the FOBT<br />
result is positive, i.e. a false or true positive, colonoscopy test is performed.<br />
This can, however, lead to complications such as perforation or bleed<strong>in</strong>gs, or