NESTA Crime Online - University of Brighton Repository
NESTA Crime Online - University of Brighton Repository
NESTA Crime Online - University of Brighton Repository
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At the higher end <strong>of</strong> the generation <strong>of</strong> crimeware tools and distribution (harvesting<br />
fraudsters), increasing specialisation poses greater challenges for the prevention <strong>of</strong><br />
cybercrime. IT security companies and law enforcement agencies <strong>of</strong>ten highlight the<br />
difficulties involved in preventing the next threat. An IT expert summarised it in thus:<br />
“One <strong>of</strong> the problems with forecasting is that companies and individuals need to protect<br />
themselves against a wide spectrum <strong>of</strong> threats. However, skilled cybercriminals can<br />
focus on one single threat and distil it, take it to perfection. This allows them to be<br />
always ahead <strong>of</strong> protection techniques.” 185<br />
Another IT specialist said: "There are new tactics each month and next year there will be<br />
something we haven't even thought <strong>of</strong> yet. It is difficult to create a model <strong>of</strong> the threat<br />
when we don't know what is going to happen." 186 Security and technology providers<br />
currently devote substantial time and money to detecting and preventing such crimes,<br />
but it is difficult to second guess and anticipate every innovation. The Conflicker worm<br />
shows the dynamic capabilities <strong>of</strong> cybercriminals. Several people who have analysed<br />
various versions <strong>of</strong> the programme have suggested that the Conflicker author was<br />
monitoring efforts by computer experts to tackle the potentially widespread infection<br />
that the worm might create. Conflicker has already been through several versions and<br />
the current version (Conflicker C) involves a major rewrite <strong>of</strong> the s<strong>of</strong>tware allowing it to<br />
disable many commercial antivirus programs as well as operating systems’ update<br />
features. 187<br />
An interview with an IT security company stressed that there needs to be a shift in the<br />
way we perceive IT security, since reactive technologies such as detection by reputation,<br />
185 Interview with IT specialist Brian Moore, London 17 th November 2008.<br />
186 Brian Scheler as quoted in Jane Wakefield, “Thieves set up data supermarkets”, BBC News, 23 rd April 2008;<br />
available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7363422.stm. We have only to find two pieces <strong>of</strong> work<br />
which attempt significant forwards looks in the field <strong>of</strong> cybercrime. These include the Foresight programme<br />
report <strong>of</strong> the Cyber Trust and <strong>Crime</strong> Prevention project entitled “Gaining Insight from Three Different Futures”<br />
(2004), Office <strong>of</strong> Science and Technology and a reference to reports produced by the Future Scanning Sub-<br />
Group <strong>of</strong> the Police Science and Technology Group (whose website is no longer accessible) referred to in P.<br />
Ekblom “How to police the future: scanning for scientific and technological innovations which generate<br />
potential threats and opportunities in crime, policing and crime reduction” in J. Smith and N Tilley Eds. (2005)<br />
“<strong>Crime</strong> Science: New approaches to preventing and detecting crime”, William Publishing, Devon.<br />
187 John Mark<strong>of</strong>f,“ Computer experts unite to hunt worm” New York Times, 18 th March 2009.<br />
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