NESTA Crime Online - University of Brighton Repository

At the higher end of the generation of crimeware tools and distribution (harvesting
fraudsters), increasing specialisation poses greater challenges for the prevention of
cybercrime. IT security companies and law enforcement agencies often highlight the
difficulties involved in preventing the next threat. An IT expert summarised it in thus:
“One of the problems with forecasting is that companies and individuals need to protect
themselves against a wide spectrum of threats. However, skilled cybercriminals can
focus on one single threat and distil it, take it to perfection. This allows them to be
always ahead of protection techniques.” 185
Another IT specialist said: "There are new tactics each month and next year there will be
something we haven't even thought of yet. It is difficult to create a model of the threat
when we don't know what is going to happen." 186 Security and technology providers
currently devote substantial time and money to detecting and preventing such crimes,
but it is difficult to second guess and anticipate every innovation. The Conflicker worm
shows the dynamic capabilities of cybercriminals. Several people who have analysed
various versions of the programme have suggested that the Conflicker author was
monitoring efforts by computer experts to tackle the potentially widespread infection
that the worm might create. Conflicker has already been through several versions and
the current version (Conflicker C) involves a major rewrite of the software allowing it to
disable many commercial antivirus programs as well as operating systems’ update
features. 187
An interview with an IT security company stressed that there needs to be a shift in the
way we perceive IT security, since reactive technologies such as detection by reputation,
185 Interview with IT specialist Brian Moore, London 17 th November 2008.
186 Brian Scheler as quoted in Jane Wakefield, “Thieves set up data supermarkets”, BBC News, 23 rd April 2008;
available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7363422.stm. We have only to find two pieces of work
which attempt significant forwards looks in the field of cybercrime. These include the Foresight programme
report of the Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention project entitled “Gaining Insight from Three Different Futures”
(2004), Office of Science and Technology and a reference to reports produced by the Future Scanning Sub-
Group of the Police Science and Technology Group (whose website is no longer accessible) referred to in P.
Ekblom “How to police the future: scanning for scientific and technological innovations which generate
potential threats and opportunities in crime, policing and crime reduction” in J. Smith and N Tilley Eds. (2005)
“Crime Science: New approaches to preventing and detecting crime”, William Publishing, Devon.
187 John Markoff,“ Computer experts unite to hunt worm” New York Times, 18 th March 2009.
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