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Achieving a low carbon future - IUCN

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A LOW CARBON FUTURE<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Mapping biodiversity’s role<br />

Sue Mainka, <strong>IUCN</strong><br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


Projected Carbon Future<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


Climate change and biodiversity<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Species<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


Climate change and biodiversity<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Ecosystems<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


Climate change and biodiversity<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Source: Dai, Wiley<br />

Review, 2010<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


Climate change and biodiversity<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Ecosystem<br />

services<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


Climate change and biodiversity<br />

Trophic mismatches<br />

– caribou calving and forage<br />

Post et al., Phil Trans Roy Soc B, 2008<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Post<br />

-Different scales of response<br />

-Tipping points and thresholds<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Where<br />

are we<br />

now?<br />

www.co2now.org<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


386 ppm 450 ppm 750 ppm<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

What do<br />

temp<br />

increases<br />

mean?<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


<strong>Achieving</strong> a <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> <strong>future</strong><br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

• Mitigation<br />

through<br />

decreased<br />

emissions<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


<strong>Achieving</strong> a <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> <strong>future</strong><br />

• Mitigation<br />

through <strong>carbon</strong><br />

sequestration<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


Source: Canadell, PNAS 2007<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

But our<br />

sequestration<br />

potential is<br />

decreasing as<br />

CO2 increases.<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


<strong>Achieving</strong> a <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> <strong>future</strong><br />

Ecosystem-based Adaptation (a <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> mechanism)<br />

Physical infrastructure Ecosystem-based adaptation<br />

Long term startup and impacts Can be implemented quickly<br />

limited flexibility should<br />

conditions change<br />

Often requires significant<br />

technology and training<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Adaptation to changing conditions<br />

can be quick<br />

Usually uses techniques already<br />

known and understood by local<br />

people<br />

Often high investment costs Relatively <strong>low</strong> initial investments<br />

Scalability? Easily scalable<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


<strong>Achieving</strong> a <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> <strong>future</strong><br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Changing people’s<br />

behaviour<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


A <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> <strong>future</strong> - opportunities<br />

The potential of new<br />

energy sources and<br />

technology<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature<br />

Photo: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/06/070618134342.htm, June 2007


A <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> <strong>future</strong> = a resilient <strong>future</strong><br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Diversity Governance<br />

Sustainable infrastructure/<br />

technologies<br />

Resilience<br />

Learning<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


A <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> <strong>future</strong> – what now?<br />

<strong>IUCN</strong>’s approach in the coming years<br />

– Continue to explore all energy options and their<br />

impact on biodiversity<br />

– Support development of tools and guidelines to<br />

implement ecosystem-based adaptation that are<br />

relevant to all sectors<br />

– Support industry in their efforts to improve<br />

environmental performance<br />

– Support <strong>IUCN</strong> members, governments and civil<br />

society with their <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> development strategies<br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature


A <strong>low</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> <strong>future</strong><br />

Shell Steering Committee, November 2010<br />

Thank you for your attention.<br />

International Union for Conservation of Nature

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