Book of Abstract (incl. addendum) - IFSA symposium 2012

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Workshop 6.4 Integrated simulation modelling in farming systems research reactions of farmers to adaptive subsidizing are modeled in a game-theoretic setting with the help of agent based modeling. In order to use sustainability as a basis for a subsidy system, it is necessary to find a transparent single index measure, which can serve as functional unit to calculate the amount of subsidies. The Sustainable Value method is particularly interesting as it is based on principles from capital theory. It applies a financial economics perspective by investigating where an investor should best invest scarce natural capital in order to create maximum sustainable value. This method seems appropriate as we want to investigate where a social investor (the public authorities) should best invest scarce subsidies in order to create maximum sustainable value. Agent based modeling is used to simulate the emergent sustainability outcome at sector level within a region based on the heterogeneous strategic decisions of individual agents (farmers). The fact that agent based modeling allows to incorporate learning behavior, makes the technique particularly suitable for this kind of analysis. Combining modelling approaches for participatory integrated assessment of scenarios for agricultural systems. The case of cereal production systems in Camargue, South of France Sylvestre Delmotte, Santiago Lopez-Ridaura, Jean Marc Barbier and Jacques Wery UMR Innovation INRA-SAD, France Delmotte@supagro.inra.fr Models are common tools used for scenario assessment of agricultural systems. In this paper we present the combined application of three modelling approaches for participatory and integrated assessment of scenarios for agricultural systems in Camargue, South of France. By means of a land use cover and cover change model (LUCC), an agent base model (ABM), and a bio-economic model (BEM), we assessed with farmers and other stakeholders of the region scenarios related to the CAP reform and the possible extension of alternative, more environmentally friendly, farming systems in the region. The LUCC model was used as a tool to characterize in detail, and from a retrospective point of view, the capacity for change of farming systems. Identifying and quantifying the main biophysical constraints and actual situation was used as a way to initiate the discussion with farmers and other stakeholders in the region. The use of the BEM model then helped to discuss with stakeholders and define some plausible and desired scenarios. Finally the use of the ABM model was seen as a powerful tool to organize and focus the collective discussions on possible adaptation strategies of farming systems.The combined application of the three modeling approaches is embedded in a more general framework for Participatory, Integrated, Multi-scale and Prospective Assessment of Agricultural Systems (PIMPAAS). In PIMPAS, stakeholders play a central role in the definition of scenarios and indicators for their evaluation, the co-development of models, and their use for scenario assessment. Specific results for scenarios related to different subsidies levels for rice under the CAP reform and the reduction of pesticide use will be presented as well as the evaluation of the whole framework by local stakeholders. Challenges in modelling policies for sustainable rural development Karen Refsgaard and John Bryden Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Norway Karen.Refsgaard@nilf.no The main aim of this paper is to discuss the concept of sustainable territorial development in rural contexts, and the modeling of environmental, economic and social components to allow simulation of the simultaneous dynamic impacts of different kinds of policy over time. 126
Workshop 6.4 Integrated simulation modelling in farming systems research The paper builds on recent research (TOP-MARD) which explored the complex interrelationships between policies, the multiple (public and private) functions of agriculture and farm households (‘multifunctionality’), and the development of rural regions and the quality of life of people living there. System dynamics was appropriate in this case because of our interest in the interaction and feed back effects among economic, social and environmental systems. A model was developed in common between 11 European research partners and then adapted to the individual regions within the area of multifunctionality and sustainable rural development to analyse the impacts of different public policies. In this paper the model is applied to the Norwegian study area, Hordaland County. The study finds that reducing agricultural subsidies can lead to improvements in regional economic performance by releasing labour and capital to uses with higher returns and by creating positive feedback to the economy by improving environmental quality and overall quality of life. Finally we will broaden these results for a general discussion on the importance of a holistic approach to the analysis of policy and indeed market impacts over time if progress is to be made towards more sustainable rural futures. Dynamilk: a farming system model to explore a better match between forage and milk production Anne-Lise Jacquot, René Baumont, Luc Delaby, Dominique Pommiès and Giles Brunschwig VetAgro Sup/INRA, France Anne-Lise.Jacquot@vetagro-sup.fr Dairy systems based on grasslands are sensitive towards environmental variations (climatic events) and production constraints changes. A better match between dynamic of dairy cattle needs and herbage supply could allow the farming system to lean towards a better forage self-sufficiency at farm-scale and to be more resilient to changes. Modeling approach enables to study several scenarios with contrasted strategies of biotechnical subsystems management in order to test different calving distributions, cattle and grasslands characteristics, or practices on pastures and meadows. A dynamic model at the farm-scale can also show the impacts of changes on the whole production systems over many years. In particular, such a dynamic model, called Dynamilk, has been created and implemented. Dynamilk is focused on relationships among dairy cattle, management and resources. This model is based on a bio-technical approach focused on grassland use by animals. Grassland sub model which consists in biodiversity characteristics and grass growth components has been developed by Jouven (2006). This paper is focused on this dairy cattle sub model’s development. Dairy cattle sub model consists in 2 units: demographic structure unit and intake, milk production and body reserve use unit. This model considers calving period and distribution, dairy cattle characteristics (ability of animals to produce milk and use its body reserve) in order to test the match between animal needs and feed supply. Milk production according to herbage and feed supply is the main output of Dynamilk. This sub model includes 3 major batches: milking cows, dry cows and replacement heifers. Validation of dairy cattle sub model has been carried out. Model behavior and sensitivity on major input parameters are assessed to be relevant according to modeling objectives. Its prediction has been compared against experimental data, Root Mean Square Deviation: 1.8 and 2.1 for indoor trials; 1.4 kg of milk for grazing trial. 127
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Overall programme Producing and rep
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Producing and reproducing farming s
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Workshop 1.1 Knowledge flows in plu
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Workshop 1.2 Family Farms as Educat
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Workshop 2.2 Comparing the impacts
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Workshop 3.1 Farming Systems’ ada
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Workshop 3.2 Succession in farming
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Workshop 3.2 Succession in farming
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Workshop 4.1 ‘Civic food networks
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Book of Abstract (incl. addendum) - IFSA symposium 2012

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