Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...

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Table IX.C.2-1 Global Warming Potentials for Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gas GWP CO2 1 CH4 23 N2O 296 Greenhouse gases are measured in terms of CO2-equivalent emissions, which result from multiplying the GWP for each of the three pollutants shown in the above table by the mass of emission for each pollutant. The sum of impacts for CH4, N2O, and CO2, yields the total effective GHG impact. We used the equation for S above to calculate the reduction associated with the increased use of renewable fuels on lifecycle emissions of CO2. These values are then compared to the total US transportation sector emissions to get a percent reduction. The results are presented in Table IX.C.2-2. Table IX.C.2-2 CO2 emission impacts of increased use of renewable fuels in the transportation sector in 2012, relative to the 2012 reference case RFS Required Projected Volume: volume: 7.5 Bgal 9.9 Bgal Reduction (million metric tons CO2) 12.6 19.8 Percent reduction 0.6 % 0.9 % Carbon dioxide is a subset of GHGs, along with CH4 and N2O as discussed above. It can be seen from Table IX.B.3-1 that the displacement index of CO2 is greater than for GHGs for each renewable fuel. This indicates that lifecycle emissions of CH4 and N2O are higher for renewable fuels than for the conventional fuels replaced. Therefore, reductions associated with the increased use of renewable fuels on lifecycle emissions of GHGs are lower than the values for CO2. The results for GHGs are presented in Table IX.C.2-3. Table IX.C.2-3 GHG emission impacts of increased use of renewable fuels in the transportation sector in 2012, relative to the 2012 reference case RFS Required Projected Volume: volume: 7.5 Bgal 9.9 Bgal Reduction (million metric tons CO2-eq.) 9.0 13.5 Percent reduction 0.4 % 0.6 % D. Implications of Reduced Imports of Petroleum Products This section only considers the impacts on imports of oil and petroleum products. Expanded production and use of renewable fuels could have other economic impacts such - 184 -
as on the exports of agricultural products like corn. See section X of the preamble for a discussion on agricultural sector impacts. In 2005, the United States imported almost 60 percent of the oil it consumed. This compares to just over 35 percent oil imports in 1975. 96 Transportation accounts for 70% of the U.S. oil consumption. It is clear that oil imports have a significant impact on the U.S. economy. Expanded production of renewable fuel is expected to contribute to energy diversification and the development of domestic sources of energy. We consider whether the RFS will reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil by calculating avoided expenditures on petroleum imports. Note that we do not calculate whether this reduction is socially beneficially, which would depend on the scarcity value of domestically produced ethanol versus that of imported petroleum products. To assess the impact of the RFS program on petroleum imports, the fraction of domestic consumption derived from foreign sources was estimated using results from the AEO 2006. In section 6.4.1 of the DRIA we describe how fuel producers change their mix in response to a decrease in fuel demand. We do not expect the projected reductions in petroleum consumption (0.3 to 0.57 Quads) to impact world oil prices by a measurable amount. We base this assumption on the overall size of worldwide petroleum demand and analysis of the AEO 2006 cases. As a consequence, domestic crude oil production for the 7.5 or 9.9 cases would not be expected to change significantly versus the RFS reference case. Thus, petroleum reductions will come largely from reductions in net petroleum imports. This conclusion is confirmed by comparing the AEO 2006 low macroeconomic growth case to the AEO 2006 reference case, as discussed in the RIA 6.4.1. The AEO 2006 shows that for a reduction in petroleum demand on the order of the reductions estimated for the RFS, net imports will account for approximately 95% of the reductions. However, if petroleum reductions were large enough to impact world oil prices, the mix of domestic crude oil, imports of finished products, and imports of crude oil used by fuel producers would change. We discuss this uncertainty in more detail in section 6.4.1 of the RIA and solicit comments to the extent by which the RFS may have a price effect and impact the imports of crude oil and refined products. We quantified the fraction of net petroleum imports that would be crude oil versus finished products. Comparison of same cases in the AEO 2006 shows that finished products initially compose all the net import reductions, followed by imported crude oil once reductions in consumption reach beyond 1.2 Quads of petroleum product. However, there is significant uncertainty in quantifying how refineries will change their mix of sources with a decrease in petroleum demand, particularly at the levels estimated for the RFS. For example, a comparison between the AEO low price case (as opposed to low macroeconomic growth case) and the reference case would yield a 50-50 split between product and crude imports. We believe that the actual refinery response could range between these two points, so that finished product imports would compose between 50 to 100% of the net import reductions, with crude oil imports making up the remainder. For the purposes of this rulemaking, we show values for the case where net import reductions 96 Davis, Stacy C.; Diegel, Susan W., Transportation Energy Data Book: 25 th Edition, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, ORNL-6974, 2006. - 185 -
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The Administrator signed the follow
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Ave., NW, Washington DC. This Docke
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Table of contents: I. Background A.
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C. Requirements for Producers and I
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G. Executive Order 13045: Protectio
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The increased use of renewable fuel
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establish the applicable national v
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Today's proposal outlines the full
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enewable fuel feedstock market pric
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Unlike VOC and NOx, emissions of CO
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These renewable feedstocks are then
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5. Potential Water Quality Impacts
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enewable fuel volume which each par
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certain volume of renewable fuel. E
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est practices would have the option
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As stated, the renewable fuel stand
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enewable fuel volumes in the calcul
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For illustrative purposes, we have
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These credit provisions have meanin
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Stdi = The RFS program standard for
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gasoline. The Act is unclear on whe
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. Ethanol Made From Any Feedstock I
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generate thermal energy used to pro
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animal wastes, including poultry fa
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limit this program solely to a stra
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presence of the denaturant. For ins
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First, doing so could create an inc
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For purposes of this preamble, the
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capability for all of the small ref
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trading program, without any per ga
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obligated parties. However, there i
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particular importance for 2013 and
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have to significantly change their
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The D code would identify cellulosi
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Another case in which a RIN may not
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Section IV. In the context of demon
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equired volumes shown in Table I.B-
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We request comment on the valid lif
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e used for current year compliance.
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equirements by roughly 10 to 30 per
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4. Provisions For Exporters Of Rene
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Previous-year RINs: RINs that came
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a. Responsibilities Of Renewable Fu
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another, in electronic or paper for
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e a one-to-one correspondence betwe
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Parent batch Actual volume (gal) Ba
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should also have the right to separ
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3. Distribution Of Separated RINs O
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obligated parties to exercise marke
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Our proposed program is designed to
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As discussed in Section III.D, it i
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additional enforcement burdens plac
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B. Requirements for Obligated Parti
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fuel and containing identifying inf
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We request comment on our proposed
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We also request comment on our prop
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The refiner or importer would be li
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Plant Feedstock Corn a Table VI.A.1
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Leading the Midwest in ethanol prod
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EPA forecasts ethanol production to
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As shown in Table VI.A.2-1 and Figu
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3. Current Ethanol and MTBE Consump
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Oxygenate Use (Bgal) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.
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change from the 2004 base case. 53
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per gallon to biodiesel produced fr
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ased on the assumption that the ble
Page 133 and 134: Modifications to the rail, barge, t
Page 135 and 136: other waste materials as discussed
Page 137 and 138: elatively small fraction of the tot
Page 139 and 140: production costs using prices for s
Page 141 and 142: the capital cost of making the nece
Page 143 and 144: information on biodiesel freight co
Page 145 and 146: For further details on RVP reductio
Page 147 and 148: assuming only that blending of etha
Page 149 and 150: costs). At a $70 per barrel crude o
Page 151 and 152: gasoline use scenarios will cost th
Page 153 and 154: the incentive to blend in ethanol b
Page 155 and 156: supporting this rulemaking. We hope
Page 157 and 158: We base our estimates of fuel quali
Page 159 and 160: Table VIII.A.1.b-2 Effect of MTBE a
Page 161 and 162: pre-1998 model year onroad diesel e
Page 163 and 164: 1. Primary Analysis The national em
Page 165 and 166: Table VIII.B.1-4 Annual Emissions N
Page 167 and 168: RFG due to the absence of an RVP wa
Page 169 and 170: increase in ambient ozone levels is
Page 171 and 172: developing a model of secondary org
Page 173 and 174: IX. Impacts On Fossil Fuel Consumpt
Page 175 and 176: intended to help fuel producers est
Page 177 and 178: efficiency and to reduce air emissi
Page 179 and 180: combined those displacement indexes
Page 181 and 182: 3. Displacement Indexes (DI) The di
Page 183: Table IX.C.1-1 Fossil fuel impacts
Page 187 and 188: which may change in response to an
Page 189 and 190: X. Agricultural Sector Economic Imp
Page 191 and 192: XI. Public Participation We request
Page 193 and 194: ways to comply with any previously
Page 195 and 196: small refiner under this proposal.
Page 197 and 198: meet these criteria to be considere
Page 199 and 200: “economically significant” as d
Page 201 and 202: 40 CFR Part 80 is proposed to be am
Page 203 and 204: (b) Renewable Fuel Standard for 200
Page 205 and 206: (2) The term “Renewable fuel” i
Page 207 and 208: RFStdi = Renewable Fuel Standard in
Page 209 and 210: a party’s renewable volume obliga
Page 211 and 212: (a) YYYY is the calendar year in wh
Page 213 and 214: (ii) The value for EEEEEE in an ext
Page 215 and 216: (2) A deficit is calculated accordi
Page 217 and 218: (a) (1) Any party that exports any
Page 219 and 220: (e) If a refiner is complying on an
Page 221 and 222: calendar year; however, disqualific
Page 223 and 224: §80.76, if such information has no
Page 225 and 226: (1) A summary report of the annual
Page 227 and 228: (4) Reports shall be submitted on f
Page 229 and 230: (1) Fail to acquire sufficient RINs
Page 231 and 232: (b) The following attest procedures
Page 233 and 234: (B) That the RFS-FRGAS remained seg
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EPA employees or EPA contractors, f
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(iv) Determine the date and time th
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(ii) Be licensed as a Certified Pub
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