Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...

Table VIII.B.1-4
Annual Emissions Nationwide from Biodiesel
Production and Transportation (tons per year)
Reference Inventory:
Change in Emissions Inventory:
Pollutant 28 mill gal biodiesel per year 300 mill gal biodiesel per year
VOC 1,300 12,700
NOx 1,400 13,600
CO 800 7,200
PM10 50 1,000
SOx 200 1,800
The potential emission increases related to biodiesel production and distribution
are generally much smaller, with the possible exception of VOC emissions. Again, these
emissions are generally expected to be in ozone attainment areas.
2. Sensitivity Analysis
The national emission inventories for VOC and NOx in 2012 with current fuels
are summarized in Table VIII.B.2-1. Here, the emission effects contained in the EPA
Predictive Models are assumed to apply to all vehicles, not just Tier 0 vehicles. Also
shown are the changes in emissions projected for the two cases for future ethanol volume
and the two cases of ethanol use in RFG. CO emissions are the same as in the primary
analysis, as they are not affected by the EPA Predictive Models.
Table VIII.B.2-1
2012 Emissions Nationwide from Gasoline Vehicles and Equipment under Several
Ethanol Use Scenarios: Sensitivity Analysis (tons per year)
Inventory Change in Inventory in Control Cases
7.2 Billion gallons of 9.6 Billion gallons of
Pollutant Reference
ethanol
ethanol
Case Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum
RFG Use RFG Use RFG Use RFG Use
VOC 5,775,000 4,000 -8,000 14,000 -5,000
NOx 2,610,000 49,000 45,000 95,000 89,000
CO 64,799,000 -843,000 -1,229,000 -1,971,000 -2,319,000
Benzene 175,000 -9,000 -5,000 -14,000 -10,000
Formaldehyde 39,300 0 -200 300 0
Acetaldehyde 19,200 5,800 4,700 9,000 8,000
1,3-Butadiene 17,900 -600 -400 -1,100 -800
The overall VOC and NOx emission impacts of the various ethanol use scenarios
change to some degree when all motor vehicles are assumed to be sensitive to fuel
ethanol content. The increase in VOC emissions either decreases substantially or turns
into a net decrease due to a greater reduction in exhaust VOC emissions from onroad
vehicles. However, the increase in NOx emissions gets larger, as more vehicles are
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