Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...

Table VI.B.1-2
U.S. Production Capacity History α
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Plants 9 11 16 22 45 53
Capacity
(million gal/yr)
50 54 85 157 290 354
α Capacity Data based on surveys conducted around the month of September for most
years, though the 2006 information is based on survey conducted in January 2006 56
2. Expected Growth in U.S. Biodiesel Production/Consumption
In addition to the 53 biodiesel plants already in production, as of early 2006, there
were an additional 50 plants and 8 plant expansions in the construction phase, which
when completed would increase total biodiesel production capacity to over one billion
gallons per year. Most of these plants should be completed by early 2007. There were
also 36 more plants in various stages of the preconstruction phase (i.e. raising equity,
permitting, conceptual design, buying equipment) with a capacity of 755 million
gallons/year. As shown in Table VI.B.2-1 if all of this capacity came to fruition, U.S.
biodiesel capacity would exceed 1.8 billion gallons.
Table VI.B.2-1
Projected Biodiesel Production Capacity
Existing Plants Construction Phase Pre-Construction Phase
Number of plants 53 58 36
Total Plant Capacity,
MM Gallon/year
354 714 754.7
For cost and emission analysis purposes, three biodiesel usage cases were considered:
a 2004 base case, a 2012 reference case, and a 2012 control case. The 2004 base case was
formed based on historical biodiesel usage (25 million gallons as summarized in Table
VI.B.1.1). The reference case was computed by taking the 2004 base case and growing it out
to 2012 in a manner consistent with the growth of gasoline. 57 The resulting 2012 reference
case consisted of approximately 28 million gallons of biodiesel. Finally, for the 2012 control
case, forecasted biodiesel use was assumed to be 300 million gallons based on EIA’s AEO
2006 report (rounded value from Table VI.B.1.1). Unlike forecasted ethanol use, biodiesel
use was assumed to be constant at 300 million gallons under both the statutory and higher
projected renewable fuel consumption scenarios described in VI.A.4. EIA's projection is
56
From Presentation” Biodiesel Production Capacity”, by Leland Tong, National Biodiesel Conference and
Expo, February 7, 2006.
57 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006, Table 1
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