Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...
Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...
Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...
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As shown in Table VI.A.2-1 <strong>and</strong> Figure VI.A.2-2, once all the construction<br />
projects currently underway are complete (estimated by December 2007), the resulting<br />
U.S. ethanol production capacity would be over 7.3 billion gallons. Together with<br />
estimated biodiesel production (300 million gallons by 2012), this would be more than<br />
enough renewable fuel to satisfy the 2012 renewable fuel requirement (7.5 billion<br />
gallons) contained in the Act. However, ethanol production is not expected to stop here.<br />
There are more <strong>and</strong> more ethanol projects being announced each day. Many <strong>of</strong> these<br />
potential projects are at various stages <strong>of</strong> planning, such as conducting feasibility studies,<br />
gaining city/county approval, applying for permits, applying for financing/fundraising, or<br />
obtaining contractor agreements. Other projects have been proposed or announced, but<br />
have not entered the formal planning process. If all these plants were to come to fruition,<br />
the combined domestic ethanol production could exceed 20 billion gallons as shown in<br />
Table VI.A.2-2.<br />
Table VI.A.2-2<br />
Potential U.S. Ethanol Production Projects<br />
2006 Baseline + UC Planned Total ETOH Potential<br />
MMGal/yr Plants MMGal/yr Plants MMGal/yr Plants MMGal/yr Plants<br />
PADD 1 0.4 1 250 3 1,005 21 1,255 25<br />
PADD 2 7,010 128 1,940 15 7,508 90 16,458 233<br />
PADD 3 60 2 108 1 599 9 767 12<br />
PADD 4 155 5 0 0 815 14 970<br />
PADD 5 124 5 128 2 676 18 928 25<br />
Total 7,349 141 2,426 21 10,603 152 20,378 314<br />
a<br />
Proposed<br />
19<br />
a Under Construction<br />
However, although there is clearly a great potential for growth in ethanol<br />
production, it is unlikely that all the announced projects would actually reach completion<br />
in a reasonable amount <strong>of</strong> time. There is no precise way to know exactly which plants<br />
would come to fruition in the future; however, we’ve chosen to focus our further<br />
discussions on only those plants which are under construction or in the final planning<br />
stages (denoted as “planned” above in Table VI.A.2-2). The distinction between<br />
“planned” versus “proposed” is that as <strong>of</strong> June 2006 planned projects had completed<br />
permitting, fundraising/financing, <strong>and</strong> had builders assigned with definitive construction<br />
timelines whereas proposed projects did not.<br />
As shown in Table VI.A.2-2, once all the under construction <strong>and</strong> planned projects<br />
are complete (by 2012 or sooner), the resulting U.S. ethanol production capacity would<br />
be 9.8 billion gallons, exceeding the 2012 EIA dem<strong>and</strong> estimate (9.6 billion gallons).<br />
This forecasted growth would double today’s production capacity <strong>and</strong> greatly exceed the<br />
2012 renewable fuel requirement (7.5 billion gallons). In addition, domestic ethanol<br />
production would be supplemented by imports, which are also expected to increase in the<br />
future (as discussed in DRIA Section 1.5).<br />
Of the 60 forecasted new ethanol plants (39 under construction <strong>and</strong> 21 planned),<br />
all would (at least initially) rely on grain-based feedstocks. Of the plants, 56 would rely<br />
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