A Spill Risk Assessment of the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project

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Table A-‐27: NEB Pipeline Failure Frequencies Adjusted Downward to Represent <strong>the</strong> ENGP Pipeline Failure Causes NEB Failure Rate (per 10,000 km-‐year) ENGP Failure Rate (per 10,000 km-‐year) Metal Loss 0.085 0.017 80% Cracking 0.128 0.013 90% External Interference Geotechnical Failure Material Failure 0.021 0.021 -‐ n/a 0.021 0.021 -‐ n/a 0.021 0.009 60% O<strong>the</strong>r Causes 0.096 0.028 71% Total 0.372 0.109 71% Source: Bercha Group (2012b). Downward Adjustment Reason for Adjustment Modern piggable pipelines are less likely to fail than pipelines represented in NEB data Advanced coating technologies, low stress design, and fatigue avoidance through design and operations Construction quality control, inspection/testing after construction, and operational surveillance Estimated as same percentage as NEB data (approx. 26%) 106
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A Spill Risk Assessment of the Enbr
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Table ES-‐1: Results for the Qu
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These findings show that the defici
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Table ES-‐4: Probabilities for
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increases to 99.9% if the volume of
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List of Equations, Figures and Tabl
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1. Introduction This report provide
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Enbridge expects that tankers calli
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Major facilities at Kitimat Termina
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affecting risk are equal to the wor
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Table 5: Estimated Reduction in the
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medium size oil/condensate spills f
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Table 12: Return Periods for Spills
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adjustments ranging from 60 to 90%.
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Table 17: Evaluative Criteria for A
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Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) and N
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of escort and tethered tugs will re
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ENGP regulatory application. Furthe
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We acknowledge the difficulty in re
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Table 19: Spill Probabilities Over
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• Mortality of a small number of
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In its regulatory application for t
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accidents in Canada, the LRFP datab
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Evidence suggests that sulphur conc
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anging between 16 and 20 years 22 a
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The absence of expert review for th
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Risk Acceptability Risk Acceptabili
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the likelihood that environmental a
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5. Extended Sensitivity Analysis fo
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Table 25: Five-‐Percentage Poin
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Sensitivity 6: Aggregating Paramete
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effects of different assumptions on
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combined, the NEB data suggests tha
Page 67 and 68: United States of America with the O
Page 69 and 70: 2. Estimate the volume of oil and c
Page 71 and 72: 1994 to 2008 international data and
Page 73 and 74: 6.3. Spill Probability Estimates fo
Page 75 and 76: 6.4. Summary of ENGP Spill Probabil
Page 77 and 78: The OSRA method clearly estimates s
Page 79 and 80: Evaluation: There is one major defi
Page 81 and 82: 7. Comparison of Spill Estimates fo
Page 83 and 84: operation. Our application of the O
Page 85 and 86: 8. Conclusion This report evaluates
Page 87 and 88: Figure 5: Number of ENGP Terminal S
Page 89 and 90: References Alberta Energy and Utili
Page 91 and 92: Enbridge. (2004). 2004 Corporate So
Page 93 and 94: MacDonald, K. (2012). Northern Gate
Page 95 and 96: United States Department of Transpo
Page 97 and 98: • Tankers sail in coastal areas w
Page 99 and 100: • Major Damage: Damage to the tan
Page 101 and 102: 25% for a collision (Brandsæter an
Page 103 and 104: the overall tanker spill return per
Page 105 and 106: Table A-‐11: Sensitivity Analys
Page 107 and 108: Group estimates risks from spills t
Page 109 and 110: In the event a tanker is struck by
Page 111 and 112: a spill. Expressed as a return peri
Page 113 and 114: 2012 as a response to an informatio
Page 115 and 116: Table A-‐23: Return Periods for
Page 117: The first Bercha Group (2012c) stud
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A Spill Risk Assessment of the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project

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