A Spill Risk Assessment of the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project

Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................ I
1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 1
2. THE ENBRIDGE NORTHERN GATEWAY PROJECT............................................................................. 2
2.1. TANKER TRAFFIC ACCESSING KITIMAT TERMINAL...............................................................................................2
2.2. MARINE TERMINAL OPERATIONS AT KITIMAT TERMINAL ..................................................................................4
2.3. CRUDE OIL AND CONDENSATE PIPELINE.................................................................................................................5
3. SUMMARY OF METHODOLOGY AND SPILL ESTIMATES FOR THE ENGP ................................... 5
3.1. SPILLS FROM TANKER TRAFFIC ACCESSING KITIMAT TERMINAL.......................................................................6
3.2. SPILLS FROM OPERATIONS AT KITIMAT TERMINAL ..............................................................................................9
3.3. SPILLS FROM PIPELINE OPERATIONS .................................................................................................................... 12
3.4. SUMMARY OF TANKER, TERMINAL, AND PIPELINE SPILL ESTIMATES FOR THE ENGP............................... 15
4. EVALUATION OF ENGP SPILL ESTIMATES.........................................................................................16
4.1. SUMMARY OF QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SPILL ESTIMATES FOR THE ENGP........................................ 43
5. EXTENDED SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR ENGP SPILL ESTIMATES............................................45
5.1. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SPILL RETURN PERIODS FOR TANKER OPERATIONS........................................ 45
5.2. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SPILL RETURN PERIODS FOR OPERATIONS AT KITIMAT TERMINAL............. 49
5.3. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SPILL RETURN PERIODS FOR PIPELINE OPERATIONS...................................... 50
5.4. SUMMARY OF EXTENDED SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR ENGP TANKER AND TERMINAL OPERATIONS.... 53
6. APPLICATION OF OIL SPILL RISK ANALYSIS MODEL TO THE ENGP .........................................54
6.1. OVERVIEW OF OIL SPILL RISK ANALYSIS MODEL ............................................................................................... 54
6.2. SPILL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES FOR ENGP TANKER OPERATIONS ............................................................... 56
6.3. SPILL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES FOR ENGP PIPELINE ...................................................................................... 61
6.4. SUMMARY OF ENGP SPILL PROBABILITIES ESTIMATED WITH OSRA MODEL............................................. 63
6.5. EVALUATION OF OSRA MODEL WITH BEST PRACTICE CRITERIA FOR RISK ASSESSMENT......................... 63
6.6. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FOR QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF OSRA MODEL ................................................ 68
7. COMPARISON OF SPILL ESTIMATES FOR THE ENGP......................................................................69
8. CONCLUSION ...............................................................................................................................................73
REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................................77
APPENDIX A -­‐ DETAILED SUMMARY OF ENGP SPILL RISK ANALYSIS ..............................................84
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