On the runway to success - MCH Group

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INTERNATIONAL MARKETS PAGE 48 up on average by 23%. Many of the major players have seen high double-digit growth this year. While this data presents a convincing picture of recovery, another set of economic realities raises the question of whether or not this growth is sustainable, considering the following: • While the forecast for 2011 holidays sales was 3.8% above 2010, this falls short of the 5.2% increase the U.S. retail industry saw last year (2010 over 2009). • Spending may be up, but consumer debt in the U.S. has reached an all-time high. A survey by America’s Research Group found that 27% of Black Friday shoppers used credit cards this year, compared to 16% in 2010; and 43% admitted to spending more than they planned, up from 39% last year. Personal savings rates have fallen to levels not seen since late 2007 • Unemployment remains high, at 8.5%. • Consumer debt, excluding mortgages and home equity credit, increased 1.3% in the latest quarter, and delinquencies sit at 10%, up from 9.8% in the previous quarter. • The euro crisis is a growing issue. According to Bain, Europe accounts for the largest share of the worldwide luxury goods market (Germany, France and Italy account, collectively, for 39% of the market, followed by the U.S. at 48%). A further collapse of the euro could therefore cause recession and affect the luxury industry. Bain is in the process of studying this situation. • The luxury market in China (currently unsaturated, at just 9% of the luxury market) is growing at a rate of 35%, while U.S. growth stands at 15% and Europe (Germany, France and Italy) have a combined average growth rate of 11%. Cautious optimism Forecasters remain cautiously optimistic about the economy in the coming two years. The National Retail Federation forecasts industry sales growth in the U.S. of only 3.4% in 2012, slightly lower than the pace of 2011, in which sales grew 4.7%. The Bain Luxury report weighs in with a positive outlook, despite socio-economic turmoil. It forecasts growth of 10% for 2011, and 6-7% from 2011 to 2014. The luxury business, which it forecast to total 191 billion euros for 2011, will grow to between 225 SATURDAY. MARCH 10. 2012 Bn./ U.S. dollar According to a study by Goldman Sachs, in the long run the demand for luxury goods in China will grow as strongly as in no other country worldwide. and 230 billion euros in 2014, it predicts. “Luxury, in all its segments, is a huge and growing market,” concludes the report. Generalists are also cautious. “I expect economic growth better than we’ve had the past few quarters, back up to the pace that we enjoyed in early 2010,” says Bill Conerly of Businomics, an online economic forecast. “But serious risks from Europe mean that business leaders should do some economic contingency planning.” He predicts that, “with this moderate pace of economic growth, the Fed will certainly keep short-term interest rates low. However, continued growth in the world economy will push up demand for credit, pushing long-term rates up by about two percentage points in two years, so [rates] will end 2013 around 4%.” Conerly also predicts that the U.S. dollar will on time EVERY TIME New collections. The latest creations. Amazing innovations. Getting your goods to BASELWORLD 2012 and sending them direct to eager buyers worldwide just got easier. FedEx is your Official Courier Service Provider here on site in Hall 1.2 Business Centre and Hall 6, gamma O30 fedex.com/ch/baselworld.html baselworld@fedex.com 0848 1 33339* FedEx. Solutions That Matter. SM Comparison: growth of luxury good markets 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 USA Europe Japan China 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 *(8 cents/min. from a Swiss landline; mobile charges depend on provider) Brazil Russia India Source: Goldman Sachs, “The rise of the BRICS and N-11 consumer”, December 2010, forecast decline by 6% per year over the next two years, that unemployment will continue to decline slowly − to about 7.5% in 2013 − and concludes there is a “30% probability of a recession centered on exports due to the European crisis.” According to the World Bank, global growth is projected to remain strong from 2011 through 2013. “After expanding 3.8% in 2010, global GDP is projected to slow to 3.2% in 2011 before firming to a 3.6% pace in each of 2012 and 2013.” As for whether or not current record watch sales are sustainable, according to Pasche, the answer is yes: “We are confident in the future, as there is still potential for growth all over the world,” he says. “Let’s consider countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, East Europe and Latin America. It is up to our industry to remain attractive and competitive, but potential exists.” As for the U.S. market, he comments, “it is recovering at least for our products, but I would consider this increase partly as catching up what has been lost during the crisis. We have not yet come back to the results of 2007/2008.” (cb) ■
Hall of Visions, Hall 2.1, Stand A72 Australia’s Finest South Sea Pearl Jewellery For Worldwide Stockists: www.pearlautore.com 2010 Winner Art of Design Awards, Jewllery category, Veranda Magazine USA | 2010 Winner Best Pearl Design Award for the “Princess of the Lagoon” Venezia Collection, Couture, USA | 2009 Winner Italian Jewellery Designer of the Year, UK Jewellery Awards | 2008 Winner Best New Jewellery Collection, Baselworld, Vogue Jewellery, Spain | 2008 Winner Best Pearl Design Award for the “Queen of Atlantis” Oceania Collection, Town & Country, USA
Page 1 and 2: SATURDAY, MARCH 10, 2012 BASELWORLD
Page 3 and 4: From the Gemini Collection THERE IS
Page 5 and 6: TACTILE TECHNOLOGY chosen by Deepik
Page 7 and 8: Visit us in Hall of Desires. Hall 1
Page 10 and 11: CHANGE. YOU CAN. 10 ATM Ice-Ramic (
Page 12 and 13: Our customers share their experienc
Page 15: PAGE 15 SATURDAY. MARCH 10. 2012 Te
Page 18: PALACE PAGE 18 SATURDAY. MARCH 10.
Page 21 and 22: motored by Italian passion QUATTRO
Page 24: JEWELLERY PAGE 24 ■ NEWS.TRENDS H
Page 27 and 28: Vanguard Water-resistant 30 meter,
Page 29 and 30: BiJouterie Joaillerie Jewellery, hi
Page 31 and 32: Brand FaCT 48% of Invicta customers
Page 34 and 35: TECHNIQUE PAGE 34 Printing or laser
Page 36 and 37: INDEPENDENT LUXURY BRANDS WITH A US
Page 38 and 39: TECHNIQUE | BOOKS PAGE 38 SATURDAY.
Page 40 and 41: THE STEELCAT CUSTOM-BUILT, TEAM-DES
Page 43 and 44: PAGE 43 SATURDAY. MARCH 10. 2012 Lo
Page 45 and 46: T H E S A R T O R I A L WWW.TOY-WAT
Page 47: PAGE 47 SATURDAY. MARCH 10. 2012 Lu
Page 51 and 52: 2012 March 8-15, 2012 Hall of Fasci
Page 54 and 55: PREMIUM SPECIALISED RETAIL PAGE 54
Page 56: When classic meets eternity. BASELW

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