Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ...

222 Chapter 8
decisions and rates of adoption of innovations. The decision to innovation is
conceptualised as a process that occurs over time, consisting of a sequence
of stages: knowledge, persuasion, decision, implementation, confirmation
(Rogers, 1995: 162). His conceptual framework for determining the rate of
adoption is based on five central factors (Rogers, 1995: 207):
– perceived attributes of innovations;
– type of innovation decision;
– communication channels;
– nature of the social system;
– extent of change agents’ promotion efforts.
The main weakness of the model is that it does not take into account
processes of co-evolution. Especially cases of significant misfits of
innovations with existing practices, mutual adaptation of practices,
institutional arrangements and the nature of the innovation are core
mechanisms in its diffusion. Furthermore the model separates the decision to
adopt the innovation from the whole innovation process. For most of the
examples Rogers presents this may be appropriate, as it involves households
and firms who previously were unaware of the potential of the innovation.
This does not hold for the development of the large-scale energy innovations
investigated here. For innovations that may be adopted at the level of
households or firms, such as PV-panels and cogeneration units, the model
can be useful once patterns of co-evolution have reached some stability.
Elements such as communication channels, and degree of network
interconnectedness (as part of the social system) have played a significant
role in the diffusion of cogeneration, for example. Here, the role of the
nature of diffusion networks - centralised or decentralised – also is relevant.
Decentralised networks of diffusion have played an important role in the
success of decentral cogeneration and green electricity, and in the increase of
PV in the past years.
National systems of innovation
In the national systems of innovation approach the central focus is on the
way innovative capacity of a country is by the nature and organisation of
interactions between industry, government and knowledge organisations.
One basic idea is that this institutional set-up has a rather strong imprint on
the nature of learning and innovation patterns. A second idea is that this
institutional set-up is rather country-specific and rooted in specific traditions
of the way interactions between government, industry and knowledge are
given shape. We concisely review the relevance of these two ideas for the
Dutch electricity system.