Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ...

Conclusions 215
The distributors initially lacked experience with small-scale physical
planning and local politics, but wind capacity steadily increased as
distributors gained experience and developed more appropriate (local)
networks, and through the cumulative effects of subsidies, green funds and
standard remuneration tariffs for wind power. The emergence of green
electricity was a next milestone for the development of wind energy as
domestic wind and biomass were the prime sources until liberalisation
enabled large-scale imports. Acceleration of wind capacity in the past half
decade was led by actors outside the electricity system as liberalisation
reduced entry problems, for example through the development of beneficial
rules for connection to and use of the grid. Before liberalisation took place
distributors had been able to shape the conditions under which local
producers could enter the grid, often resulting in relatively high barriers for
those producers. Especially small private investors, independent power
producers and cooperatives were able to expand their installed capacity after
the liberalisation of the green electricity market in 2001. As provinces and
municipalities committed more to renewable energy, capacity of wind on
land grew significantly in recent years. But the largest promise is off-shore
wind energy with a range of plans for wind farms of the Dutch coast, some
expected to be constructed and connected to the grid by the end of 2006.
High expectations regarding off-shore wind farms are shared internationally
by networks involving the oil sector, off-shore sector, energy research
institutes, electricity sector, power equipment producers, finance sector,
governments and NGOs. International experience is growing, with off-shore
wind farms in operation in Denmark and Sweden, and capacity on the North
Sea expected to grow from around 600 MW in 2005 to several thousands
megawatts in the coming two to three years. The Dutch government set a
target for 6000 MW off-shore wind farms in 2020 and recently formulated a
planning scheme for the North Sea which pointed out potentially suitable
locations for off-shore wind farms. At the end of 2004 procedures for
obtaining permits were formalised, leading to 78 concept initiatives by six
consortia for 48 locations with a potential of 21000 MW. This large amount
led the Minister of Economic Affairs in May 2005 to stop applications for
the feed-in premium scheme for off-shore wind farms and biomass as it
threatened to blow up the budget. Apparently, ceilings for maximum budget
were not previously announced and it was not foreseen that attractive feed in
premiums in combination with rising expectations of and preparations for
off-shore wind farms could trigger such a potential rise in investments.
What this last example indicates is the way policy measures can reinforce
ongoing dynamics. Similarly, policy measures can also dampen dynamics as
in the case for solar energy, where changes in policies slowed down the