Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ...

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Exploring transitions through sociotechnical scenarios 201 2025-2050: Regime shift to international renewable electricity generation The process of European unification continued and political power increasingly shifted to the European level. Authority over high voltage grids shifted from the national to the European level and the reliability of electricity supply was guaranteed through European law, rules and agreements. At the regime level in the Netherlands, coal was only utilised in a gasification plant in the Rijnmond area, with the CO2 re-used in other processes, such as in horticulture. In Europe the number of coal power plants was dropping because of the costs of CO2 removal and the difficulty, also due to societal opposition, of finding proper locations for carbon sequestration. With a significant price on carbon emissions, investments in integrated gasification combined cycles started to outrun those in combined cycle gas turbines as they combined high efficiency with an ability to deploy various feedstocks and produce multiple products. Coalitions between energy companies and agricultural and chemical companies emerged to bundle expertise regarding biomass utilisation, electricity marketing and chemical production and marketing. Hydrogen, as one of its products, was utilised increasingly for mobile applications. Global use of biomass as an electricity generation source increased rapidly and spurred trade in various waste and biomass products. Several developing countries shifted part of their commodity production towards biomass crops that guaranteed better income than traditional crops. ICT played a role in facilitating on-line exchanges of electricity and of resources for electricity generation such as biomass and hydrogen. After production of several thousand units of hybrid microturbine/fuel cell systems lowered their costs, power equipment producers started to produce larger scale units in the megawatt range because these enabled them to reduce costs even further and to tap other than niche markets. The systems began to compete effectively with combined cycle gas turbines especially for peak and medium loads. While initially the hybrid fuel cell/gas turbine systems were powered by hydrogen through gas reforming, they increasingly used direct hydrogen. One source for hydrogen were offshore wind farms that produced hydrogen from surplus electricity at low demand periods. Combined production of power and hydrogen gained momentum as it solved both the problems of discontinuity and storage. Utilisation of ICT also enabled better anticipation of discontinuous resources such as photovoltaic and wind power, and thus enabled better overall control of the international electricity regime. Expectations regarding large-scale solar power increased as further strengthening of the grid, long distance transport at higher voltage, and
202 Chapter 7 improvement of cable and conduction technologies, led to reduction of transport losses and made transport at longer distances possible. Solar hydrogen systems were developed in Southern regions (Europe and Africa) as they served local hydrogen need and produced power for the international grid. In 2050, then, electricity demand in the Netherlands was met half by national power production with several highly efficient combined cycles based on inputs of gas, biomass and coal (with CO2 removal) and offshore wind-hydrogen systems, leading to a halving of CO2 emissions compared to the 1990 level. The other half was met by import of electricity based on combined cycles, offshore wind farms, solar hydrogen systems and hydropower. 7.5.3 Scenario 2: Towards Distributed Generation 2000-2010: Diverging actor strategies in the electricity regime Changing user preferences facilitated by liberalisation induced increasing divergence in strategies of mainly international operating electricity producers and more national focussed energy distribution companies. Producers supplied cheap base load electricity by full utilisation of their large-scale power plants based on coal, oil, gas or nuclear energy. Distributors were more focussed on customers with smaller electricity demand, such as households and small firms. They were attracting customers mainly by highlighting the specificity of their product and service. Distributors aimed to further expand market niches such as industrial combined heat and power production, in collaboration with industrial actors, and they further explored technological niches such as micropower in coalition with gas utilities and electric equipment producers. Gas utilities were involved to expand the market of gas relative to central produced electricity. Several industries were involved because they needed electricity in combination with high quality heat that could be provided by microturbines. Projects with micropower for several households were supported by coalitions involved in the development of energy-efficient housing districts. The Dutch world-wide fund for nature (WWF) had developed a set of design criteria that were used in several housing projects by project developers, construction companies and municipalities. They explored the potential of further improving energy efficiency in houses by installing these micropower systems. Potential buyers were not scared away by the relatively small additional costs also because of the continuing housing scarcity, while some leading edge buyers were specifically attracted by the green profile of the houses. The projects induced further experiments with local generation systems because several problems were encountered. Distributors had to solve
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INNOVATION AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
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In de reeks Schone Technologie en M
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Contents Preface v Chapter 1 Transi
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Contents iii 6.4 Liberalisation of
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vi Chapter This dissertation was fa
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2 Chapter 1 systems of production a
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4 Chapter 1 1995: 25). A basic tene
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6 Chapter 1 and be a member of natu
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8 Chapter 1 specific momentum for p
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10 Chapter 1 Chapter eight summaris
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12 Chapter 2 derive some general pr
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14 Chapter 2 emerges because of cha
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16 Chapter 2 ways things were done
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18 Chapter 2 multinational producer
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20 Chapter 2 increasing scale and r
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22 Chapter 2 of alternative views o
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24 Chapter 2 exchange of knowledge
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26 Chapter 2 multidirectional flux
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28 Chapter 2 systems are located at
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30 Chapter 2 - Misadaptation betwee
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32 Chapter 2 of these concepts and
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34 Chapter 2 New institutionalism i
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36 Chapter 2 production and consump
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38 Chapter 2 Figure 2.3 Model of an
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40 Chapter 2 traditional forms of d
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42 Chapter 2 2.4 Integrating insigh
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44 Chapter 2 2.4.1 Innovation as a
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46 Chapter 2 composition of the net
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48 Chapter 2 its diffusion, to crea
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50 Chapter 2 materials, and the pro
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52 Chapter 2 - specificity: as an e
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54 Chapter 2 often represents the p
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56 Chapter 2 that the introduction
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58 Chapter 2 2.5 Concluding remark
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60 Chapter 3 society. A further sec
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62 Chapter 3 perceptions and soluti
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64 Chapter 3 Linkages involve conne
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66 Chapter 3 Table 3.1 Typology of
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68 Chapter 3 185). Institutional lo
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70 Chapter 3 invested (Hughes, 1983
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72 Chapter 3 analysts of, the elect
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74 Chapter 4 energy saving and effi
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76 Chapter 4 In their analysis of t
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78 Chapter 4 Hughes’ basic model
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80 Chapter 4 improving the system a
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82 Chapter 4 Figure 4.3 Technology
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84 Chapter 4 by pollution, problems
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86 Chapter 4 4.5 The development of
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88 Chapter 4 energy sources. Safegu
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90 Chapter 4 - Application of nucle
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92 Chapter 4 - The government and t
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94 Chapter 4 military-industrial co
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96 Chapter 4 hardware” (Hirsh, 19
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98 Chapter 4 In conclusion, the int
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100 Chapter 4 government 25 . Never
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102 Chapter 4 - Both economic incen
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104 Chapter 4 organisation of the e
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106 Chapter 4 industry could delive
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108 Chapter 4 More robust plans for
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110 Chapter 4 Table 4.4 Evolution o
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112 Chapter 4 4.11 The development
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114 Chapter 4 Table 4.6 Evolution o
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116 Chapter 4 Parties involved are
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118 Chapter 4 Figure 4.5 Conversion
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120 Chapter 4 combustion of biomass
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122 Chapter 4 The focus on biomass
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124 Chapter 4 Let us consider other
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126 Chapter 4 varying processes of
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128 Chapter 5 technological and ins
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130 Chapter 5 Figure 5.3: Share of
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132 Chapter 5 and search routines i
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134 Chapter 5 solutions is main con
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136 Chapter 5 and was triggered by
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138 Chapter 5 signalling significan
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140 Chapter 5 Table 5.2 Main change
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142 Chapter 5 1982; Blok, 1991; Bui
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144 Chapter 5 10-12). The third iss
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146 Chapter 5 replaced the focus on
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148 Chapter 5 from 220 MWe in 1990
Page 161 and 162: 150 Chapter 5 and supply. Only afte
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Page 165 and 166: 154 Chapter 5 Prospects for cogener
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Page 169 and 170: 158 Chapter 5 add, not a sufficient
Page 171 and 172: 160 Chapter 5
Page 173 and 174: 162 Chapter 6 signify a process of
Page 175 and 176: 164 Chapter 6 a liberalised market.
Page 177 and 178: 166 Chapter 6 were allowed to produ
Page 179 and 180: 168 Chapter 6 in the municipality o
Page 181 and 182: 170 Chapter 6 became in turn one of
Page 183 and 184: 172 Chapter 6 Table 6.1 Milestones
Page 185 and 186: 174 Chapter 6 6.4 Liberalisation of
Page 187 and 188: 176 Chapter 6 After the opening of
Page 189 and 190: 178 Chapter 6 Renewable Energy Cert
Page 191 and 192: 180 Chapter 6 2001b). The company w
Page 193 and 194: 182 Chapter 6 infancy, energy compa
Page 195 and 196: 184 Chapter 6 What is striking that
Page 199 and 200: 188 Chapter 7 meaning, infrastructu
Page 201 and 202: 190 Chapter 7 Figure 7.2 Social gro
Page 203 and 204: 192 Chapter 7 Figure 7.3 A dynamic
Page 205 and 206: 194 Chapter 7 7.3 Strengths and wea
Page 207 and 208: 196 Chapter 7 Table 7.3 shows that
Page 209 and 210: 198 Chapter 7 The process of libera
Page 211: 200 Chapter 7 towards resource inde
Page 215 and 216: 204 Chapter 7 project. The high ene
Page 217 and 218: 206 Chapter 7 of the promising nich
Page 221 and 222: 210 Chapter 8 gain stability as a c
Page 223 and 224: 212 Chapter 8 with the application
Page 225 and 226: 214 Chapter 8 Table 8.2 Institution
Page 227 and 228: 216 Chapter 8 growth rates of insta
Page 229 and 230: 218 Chapter 8 This involved changes
Page 231 and 232: 220 Chapter 8 contributes to a bett
Page 233 and 234: 222 Chapter 8 decisions and rates o
Page 235 and 236: 224 Chapter 8 The applicability of
Page 237 and 238: 226 Chapter 8 8.5 Lessons for trans
Page 239 and 240: 228 Chapter 8 ideas. Moreover, the
Page 241 and 242: 230 Chapter 8 and decentral cogener
Page 245 and 246: 234 References Arentsen, M.J., and
Page 247 and 248: 236 References Bressers, H.Th.A. an
Page 249 and 250: 238 References De Jong, J.J., E. We
Page 251 and 252: 240 References EPRI (1999) Electric
Page 253 and 254: 242 References Geels, F.W. (2002b)
Page 255 and 256: 244 References Henderson, R.M. and
Page 257 and 258: 246 References Islas, J. (1999) The
Page 259 and 260: 248 References Dependence and Creat
Page 261 and 262: 250 References Nelson, R.R. (1995a)
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252 References Quarles van Ufford,
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254 References Schmidheiny S. (1992
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256 References SNM (2000) Frisse Wi
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258 References Van de Ven, A.H. and
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260 References VROM (1993) National
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262 References
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264 Samenvatting analytisch kader d
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266 Samenvatting maar toch een grot
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268 Samenvatting
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