Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ...

Exploring transitions through sociotechnical scenarios 195
Our focal issue are system innovations, in this paper regarding the electricity
domain. We make our contribution mainly to step 2 and 4, in the sense that
we use an explicit theoretical approach for the empirical analysis of the
electricity system and the writing of the scenarios. Because co-evolution of
technology and society is at the heart of the approach, we call the new tool
sociotechnical scenarios (STSc). Using the multi-level perspective, we
analyse the main variables in the electricity regime, promising niches and
possible landscape developments, and indicate how important and uncertain
they are. We also use the multi-level perspective to think and write about
possible future transition paths. The perspective helps us identify plausible
transition paths. Patterns and mechanisms can be used to include more finegrained
sociotechnical dynamics 2 (Geels, 2002a). Some examples are:
– Regimes trying to counter demands on the regime and the threat of niches
that emerge as solutions to those demands via various improvements (e.g.
coal power producers in the Netherlands starting with co-combustion of
coal with biomass to reduce the pressure of a variety of more carbon
friendly alternatives);
– Niche cumulation: technologies develop and diffuse through different
domains of application or niche markets (e.g. photovoltaic power moving
from use in satellites to stand-alone systems to grid-connected systems or
fuel cells from use in satellites to use as back up power to use for super
high reliable power production);
– Hybridisation: the merger of two options to create something new, e.g.
the merger of the gas turbine and the steam turbine into combined cycles
(Islas, 1997); or the merger of the fuel cell and the gas turbine into a
more efficient power generating system.
– New technical developments triggering new societal developments, e.g.
the introduction of ICT leading to the new economy, or the emergence of
the internet as a new means for information gathering and recreation.
– Emerging new user patterns: some technologies may induce (initially
small) groups of users to change their behaviour and these groups may
grow under specific circumstances; this may be triggered by a variety of
reasons like creating new opportunities, distinction, cost-performance
considerations, etc. In transitions, often a combination of such reasons is
at work.
We summarise the main characteristics for two scenarios that have been
constructed and that incorporated the aforementioned patterns. These
characteristics are then translated into plausible dynamic transition paths.
2 A current project is underway in which a more specific methodology for the construction
of sociotechnical scenarios is developed.