Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ...

188 Chapter 7
meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks, and supply networks.
Sociotechnical systems are stable, because the elements are aligned and
woven together. Yet, to solve structural problems in society, we need
transitions in sociotechnical systems. Such system innovations not only
involve technological changes, but also changes in user practices, policy and
regulation, infrastructure, social networks, and culture.
Policy makers, NGOs, large firms and others show substantial interest in
system innovations. The Stockholm Environment Institute, for instance,
published a book on the Great Transition (Raskin et al. 2002). The American
National Research Council (1999) and the Dutch Research Council NWO
have made transitions part of their research portfolio. And the Dutch
government gave transitions a central place in their fourth National
Environmental Policy Plan (VROM, 2001). They think that system
innovations promise large improvements in environmental efficiency as
shown in Figure 7.1.
Figure 7.1 System optimisation versus system innovation (Weterings et al.,
1997)
Improvement in
environmental efficiency
Factor 10
Factor 5
Factor 2
5 10 20
Function innovation
= new system
Partial system redesign
System optimimisation
Time horizon (years)
But transitions are complex, uncertain and involve multiple social groups.
Hence, decision makers struggle with the question on how to know and
influence possible directions of such transitions. Scenarios or forecasting
exercises are often used to guide such strategic decision-making. The central
argument developed in section 7.3 is that existing scenario methods are not
entirely suited to explore system innovation. They are often based on too
simple assumptions about the dynamics of technological change, and ignore