Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ...

124 Chapter 4
Let us consider other factors that can explain rate of success or failure. An
important outcome of all paths was the impact of the nature of institutional
arrangements. Table 4.9 provides an overview of relative success of paths in
time periods characterised by different institutional arrangements within the
electricity sector, and significant change in the perception of its institutional
logics as triggered by the oil crises. Some paths were frustrated under
monopolistic conditions, while uptake was stimulated when competition was
introduced. Here, the pattern is reasonably coherent. Before the oil crisis the
nuclear route perfectly fitted institutional logics of the electricity regime and
the broader societal substructures. Processes of re-institutionalisation had
been underway for decades to facilitate integration of nuclear power into the
electricity system, as the knowledge infrastructure was geared to nuclear
knowledge generation, political support was high, and the economy was
expecting continued low-cost electricity. Towards the end of the sixties,
societal opposition was already starting to show, and this was accelerated
due to the oil crises. But most importantly the dominant institutional logics
came under scrutiny as economic growth as well as energy consumption
growth stagnated. In combination with dependency on fossil fuels, and
perceived finity, this triggered a search process for alternatives. The paths
most close to the system enjoyed highest success, but this changed as
competition was introduced in the course of the eighties. In combination
with the environmental commitments by electricity distributors, a range of
alternatives were moving forward. The process of liberalisation has
facilitated the emergence of new entrants in the electricity sector that were
committed to moving these alternatives further, and could adapt to the
institutional logics of green electricity to expand.
Table 4.9 Success of paths under different framework conditions
Path taken Before Oil crises Transition period Liberalisation,
oil crisis 1973-1989 1989-1998 after 1998
Shift from coal to
gas
++ +/- + +
The nuclear route + +/- - -/+
Hybrid gas and
steam turbines
+ + + +
Coal gasification - -/+ + -
Distant heating - + + +
Decentral cogen - + ++ +/-
Wind power - - + +
Solar power - -/+ + +
Biomass - - +/- +/-
Green electricity - - + +