Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ...

Stability and transformation in the electricity system 123
4.14 Conclusions
Table 4.8 provides an overall assessment of the various paths taken in the
electricity system. The paths are discerned regarding the level of divergence
from the fossil-based central station electricity regime. The table suggest that
options that could be integrated with least difficulty have, not surprisingly,
had reasonable success. The current expansion of co-combustion can also be
explained by the low level of divergence with the fossil-based central station
electricity regime. The initial uptake of coal gasification also follows this
logic, but the lack of success has had to do with the erosion of the principle
of being able to transfer long-term investment costs onto consumers. Thus,
institutional change has reduced the potential for coal gasification, although
it can be expected that, with increasing success in other countries, it will
return as a serious option in the Netherlands in due time. The most
interesting outcomes of the overview are the success of decentral
cogeneration and green electricity. Despite high divergence these paths have
been relatively successful. The next chapters will provide an in-depth
analysis and explanation for this.
Table 4.8 Overview of paths taken in the electricity system
Path taken Relative Shift in Shift in mode Shift in mode Shift in
Shift from
success resources of production of provision use
coal to gas
The nuclear
++ Yes No
No
No
route
Hybridisation
- Yes Yes
No
No
of gas and
steam turbines
Coal
++ No Yes
No
No
gasification
Distant
-/+ No Yes
No
No
heating
Decentral
+/- No No
Yes
Yes
cogeneration + No Yes
Yes
Yes
Wind power -/+ Yes Yes Yes No
Solar power -/+ Yes Yes Yes Yes
Biomass cocombution
Biomass
+ Yes No No No
combustion
Waste
-/+ Yes Yes
No
No
incineration + Yes No
Yes
No
Biogas cogen
Green
-/+ Yes Yes Yes Yes
electricity + Yes Yes
Yes
Yes