Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ...
Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ... Innovation and institutional change: the transition to a sustainable ...
Chapter 1 Transition to a sustainable electricity system Introduction and research questions 1.1 Introduction 1 Electricity has become taken for granted in industrialised societies. Like water and food it is now regarded as a basic necessity expected to be available at all times. The benefits of electricity are well known: it is a resource indispensable for manufacturing the products we consume, and it is a resource essential for the functioning of a wide range of products, such as household and office appliances and appliances related to entertainment and communication. The creation of these benefits has however come at significant cost. Industrialised societies, and especially energy and transport systems, are addicted to fossil fuels. The emergence and shape of these systems is inextricably linked to the exploitation of fossil resources such as coal, oil and gas. Apart from local and regional environmental problems, carbon emissions through fossil fuel burning have created the problem of human-induced global warming 2 . The nature of this global warming problem is unprecedented: it threatens fundamental aspects of ecosystems and society in decades to come 3 . The required response will be unprecedented as well: one element is that it demands fundamental transformation of existing 1 The finalisation of this dissertation has taken place under the umbrella of a research project ‘Transitions and transition paths’ funded by the energy research programme of the Dutch Scientific Council and Novem. Support is gratefully acknowledged. Further support was given by a research grant under the programme Innovation and Governance of the Institute for Governance Studies of the University Twente and is gratefully acknowledged. 2 Global warming is in itself not a new phenomenon as Earth’s climate history shows cycles of warming and cooling, to a significant extent associated with natural variations in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. However the current rate and speed of change in CO2 concentration is generally accepted as unprecedented and generated by human activities (IPPC, 2001). 3 The lag of the effects showing themselves is one aspect of the complex nature of the problem: humans tend to fix problems once these have surfaced; in this case we have to prevent or reduce the effects from occurring although we do not yet see and understand the problem fully. This has led to the formulation of the so-called precautionary principle. 1
2 Chapter 1 systems of production and consumption away from its carbon base; another element is that it demands alternative forms of governance stretching from the local to the global. Shaping of both elements as a response to the climate change challenge has been taking place for some two decades now but results in terms of reduction of greenhouse gases and realisation of effective modes of governance are disappointing 4 . Some reduction in carbon intensity may be observed, mainly because of a shift from coal to gas and increasing energy efficiency, but these tend to be offset by increasing energy consumption triggered by rising mobility and new electricity consuming ICT applications, among others. Successes in switching to alternative energy and transport systems are incidental, isolated and emerge too slow to make a real impact in expanding economies. For global governance, ratification and entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005 may be considered a relative success that is seriously diminished by the withdrawal to the climate treaty of the USA, the major contributing developed country, and Australia. Despite potential free-riders, the European Union and individual countries such as the Netherlands, remain committed to the Kyoto Protocol and the climate policy process. The results in the Netherlands have been poor however. CO2 emissions increased with 12% from 1990 to 2003 (RIVM, 2005a: xxi). Increases in the energy and transport sector have been especially rapid with 36% and 26% respectively, while the industry sector realised a reduction in CO2 emissions of 12% from 1990 to 2003 (RIVM, 2005a: xxi). Due to a drop in CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, and F emissions (HFCs, PFCs) overall greenhouse gases increased by 1.5% in the period 1990-2003, well off the target of a reduction of 6% of greenhouse gas emission in 2008-2012 relative to 1990 (RIVM, 2005a: xi, 1-3). Nevertheless, it is expected that with a stabilisation of greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands for the reference period, the Kyoto target can be realised with emission reduction realised outside the Netherlands (RIVM, 2005b: 13). These data illustrate typical characteristics of the response to the climate change challenge. A first element is that the restructuring until now has mainly taken place by eco-efficiency strategies of industries, mostly through incremental innovations that optimise existing industrial production, and that the underlying carbon base has not really changed. A second element is that the formation and negotiation of a global institutional arrangement for the climate problem takes place through a sequence of small steps (Hasselmann, et al. 2003). The focus has foremost been on realising initial short-term reduction targets, implying that the interim targets of the Kyoto Protocol 4 See for example Van Ierland et al. (2003) for an overview of main issues, complexities, controversies and implementation aspects in international climate policy.
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Chapter 1<br />
Transition <strong>to</strong> a <strong>sustainable</strong> electricity system<br />
Introduction <strong>and</strong> research questions<br />
1.1 Introduction 1<br />
Electricity has become taken for granted in industrialised societies. Like<br />
water <strong>and</strong> food it is now regarded as a basic necessity expected <strong>to</strong> be<br />
available at all times. The benefits of electricity are well known: it is a<br />
resource indispensable for manufacturing <strong>the</strong> products we consume, <strong>and</strong> it is<br />
a resource essential for <strong>the</strong> functioning of a wide range of products, such as<br />
household <strong>and</strong> office appliances <strong>and</strong> appliances related <strong>to</strong> entertainment <strong>and</strong><br />
communication. The creation of <strong>the</strong>se benefits has however come at<br />
significant cost. Industrialised societies, <strong>and</strong> especially energy <strong>and</strong> transport<br />
systems, are addicted <strong>to</strong> fossil fuels. The emergence <strong>and</strong> shape of <strong>the</strong>se<br />
systems is inextricably linked <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> exploitation of fossil resources such as<br />
coal, oil <strong>and</strong> gas. Apart from local <strong>and</strong> regional environmental problems,<br />
carbon emissions through fossil fuel burning have created <strong>the</strong> problem of<br />
human-induced global warming 2 . The nature of this global warming problem<br />
is unprecedented: it threatens fundamental aspects of ecosystems <strong>and</strong> society<br />
in decades <strong>to</strong> come 3 . The required response will be unprecedented as well:<br />
one element is that it dem<strong>and</strong>s fundamental transformation of existing<br />
1 The finalisation of this dissertation has taken place under <strong>the</strong> umbrella of a research<br />
project ‘Transitions <strong>and</strong> <strong>transition</strong> paths’ funded by <strong>the</strong> energy research programme of <strong>the</strong><br />
Dutch Scientific Council <strong>and</strong> Novem. Support is gratefully acknowledged. Fur<strong>the</strong>r support<br />
was given by a research grant under <strong>the</strong> programme <strong>Innovation</strong> <strong>and</strong> Governance of <strong>the</strong><br />
Institute for Governance Studies of <strong>the</strong> University Twente <strong>and</strong> is gratefully acknowledged.<br />
2 Global warming is in itself not a new phenomenon as Earth’s climate his<strong>to</strong>ry shows cycles<br />
of warming <strong>and</strong> cooling, <strong>to</strong> a significant extent associated with natural variations in CO2<br />
concentration in <strong>the</strong> atmosphere. However <strong>the</strong> current rate <strong>and</strong> speed of <strong>change</strong> in CO2<br />
concentration is generally accepted as unprecedented <strong>and</strong> generated by human activities<br />
(IPPC, 2001).<br />
3<br />
The lag of <strong>the</strong> effects showing <strong>the</strong>mselves is one aspect of <strong>the</strong> complex nature of <strong>the</strong><br />
problem: humans tend <strong>to</strong> fix problems once <strong>the</strong>se have surfaced; in this case we have <strong>to</strong><br />
prevent or reduce <strong>the</strong> effects from occurring although we do not yet see <strong>and</strong> underst<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
problem fully. This has led <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> formulation of <strong>the</strong> so-called precautionary principle.<br />
1