A single-tier pension: what does it really mean? - The Institute For ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Figure 4.5 continued C. Single-tier system Cumulative percentage of individuals 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% All Men Women Short-run effect on pensioner incomes Single-tier amount 0% 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 State pension income at SPA (£ per week; 2013–14 earnings terms) Note: Assumes individuals continue contributing until SPA under both systems. Source: Authors’ calculations using English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and National Insurance administrative data. Panel C shows the income these same people would have under the single-tier pension. This shows that 39% of individuals (42% of men and 35% of women) would accrue a state pension under the proposed system worth at least the full single-tier amount. This is higher than the 31% of individuals (34% of men and 23% of women) shown in Figure 4.3 for the case when we assume all remaining contributory activity stops in 2016. Table A.3 in Appendix A summarises these figures in a similar way to Table 4.2. 45 Panel B of Figure 4.5 shows the change between the two systems. When compared with Figure 4.2, it illustrates that more people stand to lose from the proposed reforms once we take into account the possibility of additional contributions after 2016, although the proportion of people gaining also increases. Across the sample as a whole, 19% (21% of men and 14% of women) stand to receive a lower state pension income at SPA under the proposed system than under the current system, allowing for continued contributions up to SPA. This compares with our estimate that just 4% would lose if individuals expect to cease contributions in 2016 (see Table 4.4). There are two important factors underlying this pattern. First, those who will already have accrued £146.30 under the current system by 2016 will find that – unlike under the current system – under the single-tier system they will be unable to accrue any further pension rights after April 2016. For example, for a high earner, this could mean forgoing S2P income worth up to 45 http://www.ifs.org.uk/docs/report_single-tier_pension_appendices.pdf. 37
A single-tier pension: what does it really mean? £7.70 per week at SPA. 46 As shown in Table A.4 in Appendix A, 47 on average those who will have already accrued £146.30 under the current system by 2016 are estimated to lose £2.58 per week of state pension income when we allow for contributions up to SPA; this compares with an average loss of just 39p per week under the assumption of contributions ceasing in March 2016. Second, those who have had periods of contracting out in the past will find they are able to work this off after April 2016. This accrual that they can potentially achieve under the proposed system is considerably greater than the additional pension rights they may be able to earn under the current system. Under the current system, most of these individuals have already accrued full BSP and so additional years of contributions will provide them only with additional S2P entitlement (worth between £1.70 and £2.60 per week in state pension income for each additional year of contributions). 48 In contrast, under the proposed system, these individuals would be able to accrue £4.18 of weekly state pension income for each year’s contribution. Comparing Table 4.4 with Table 4.5 later, we can see that only 5% of those with more than 10 years of contracting out stand to gain immediately from the single-tier pension (with the average gain being 52p per week of state pension income); however, once we allow for these individuals to continue contributing up to SPA, the proportion gaining rises to 39% and the average gain increases to £2.07 per week. Across the sample as a whole, 43% of individuals would gain in terms of income at SPA, allowing for continued contributions up to SPA. This compares with just 18% who are estimated to gain under the assumption that contributions cease in 2016 (see Table 4.4). With contributions continuing up to SPA, 26% of individuals (17% of men and 47% of women) would see an increase in state pension income of at least £5 a week; 13% (7% of men and 26% of women) would see an increase of at least £10 per week. Table 4.5 shows the proportion of individuals with certain characteristics who gain and lose from the proposed reforms under the assumption that individuals continue contributing until they reach the SPA; this is similar to the analysis presented in Table 4.4. Ignoring the possibility of future accrual (as we did at the start of this section) understates both the proportion of individuals who lose from the reform and the proportion who win. We found above that 3% of men and 6% of women are estimated to lose more than £1 per week in pension income at the SPA from the proposed reform if they make no further contributions after 2016. These figures increase to 21% and 14% respectively if we assume individuals continue contributing until the SPA. If we assume contributions cease in 2016, 6% of men and 44% of women are estimated to gain 46 This calculation is based on someone earning at or above the upper accrual point (UAP) for three years from April 2016 to March 2019 and accruing additional S2P entitlement for this activity. 47 http://www.ifs.org.uk/docs/report_single-tier_pension_appendices.pdf. 48 This figure decreases over time as S2P accrual gradually becomes flat-rate and the maximum S2P accrual converges to £1.70. 38
Page 1 and 2: A single-tier pension: what does it
Page 3 and 4: Published by The Institute for Fisc
Page 6: Contents Executive Summary 1 1. Int
Page 11 and 12: 1. Introduction In a White Paper pu
Page 43: A single-tier pension: what does it
Page 55 and 56: 5. Long-Run Effect of the Proposed
Page 69 and 70: 6. Wider implications of the propos
Page 75 and 76: 7. Conclusions Pensions Bill 2013-1
Page 77 and 78: References Attanasio, O. and Rohwed

A single-tier pension: what does it really mean? - The Institute For ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?