The future electricity system – definitely not business as ... - Near You

Are we running out of energy
The future electricity system – definitely not business as usual
John Cherrie

• Electricity – the first 100 years
Contents
• The next ten years – more change than in the
last 100
– Demand
– Supply
– Networks
• Challenges

The Power System Today
• Demand is what it is – we observe it but don’t
control it (much…)
• Most generation has outputs controllable to varying
degrees (gas, coal, nuclear, most hydro)
• A small amount of generation is self-dispatching
(wind, solar PV, some hydro, CHP)
• Operating the system means following demand
second by second by controlling generation in ways
that burn least fuel whilst respecting technical limits

The Power System Today
• Demand is what it is – we observe it but don’t
control it (much…)
• Most generation has outputs controllable to varying
degrees (gas, coal, nuclear, most hydro)
• A small amount of generation is self-dispatching
(wind, solar PV, some hydro, CHP)
• Operating the system means following demand
second by second by controlling generation in ways
that burn least fuel whilst respecting technical limits
I could have written this 100 years ago

Thermal power plants
Hydro power plants
Transmission network
Wind farms
Today’s power system
Distribution networks
commercial customers
Industrial customers
residential customers

National Grid Demand (MW)
33500
33000
32500
32000
31500
31000
Challenges in today’s world
England v Germany Sunday 27th June 2010 ko 15:00
Result 1-4
15:00
Kick-off
30500
1430 1445 1500 1515 1530 1545 1600 1615 1630 1645 1700 1715 1730
Source: UK National Grid
15:45 Half Time
1020MW
Time
16:49 Full Time
640MW
27th June 2010
28th June 2009

The future world
• Carbon reduction
• Supply security
• Fuel cost
• Need to build or replace generating capacity
• New technology across supply, transport and
utilisation
• Shale gas and unconventional oil?
• All in a context of high global uncertainty
Pretty well everything that has been a fixed point
in power system planning is now potentially a variable

• Tending to reduce
– Efficient buildings
– Heat storage
– Efficient industry
– Efficient lighting
– Efficient appliances
• Becoming controllable
The future of electricity demand
• Tending to increase
– Switch to electric
transport
– Individual control of time shiftable demand
– Sophisticated metering to set incentives
– Engaging consumers?
Very uncertain how fast this will evolve
– Switch to heat pumps
from fossil heating
– New uses for electricity

• Better choice of using electricity
• Reduction of bills
– Responding to time-of-use tariff,
or
– Sign-on a deal with your supplier
by “being flexible”, smart
charging/using
• Participation in the electricity value
chain
• Reduction of electricity/energy
consumed
• Reduction of emissions
• Sustainability
Example – the smart home
System
operator
Smart home
from EPRI source image

Electric transport
• Low carbon personal transport options
– Biofuels
• Generally scale limited by available resource,
competition with food supplies
– Hydrogen
• Need very large scale hydrogen sources, not clear where from?
Possible use for surplus wind generation.
– Electric
• Some significant challenges but currently the preferred option.
Hybrids?
– Walk, cycle, take the (electric) train
• All have a role, but all studies indicate people are very reluctant to
give up personal mobility once they have gained it

Power system implications of electric vehicles
• 32m cars in UK
• Assume 10m plug in at
the same time and each
takes 8 kW
• Power system demand
from cars =80 GW
• Current UK maximum
demand=60 GW
• Current UK installed
generation=75 GW
• 10 houses in your street
• Average street
demand=10 kW
• Assume 5 cars plug in
together, taking 8 kW
each
• Extra load on street
distribution feeder=40
kW
Uncontrolled adoption of EVs will break the power system!
But charging can be controlled
– provided EVs are plugged in when not in use!

Power Systems Implications of Electric Heating
• Substitution of gas or oil fuel
• Ground Source Heat Pumps
– Highly efficient and becoming more so
– Need area of land from which to source the heat
– Not suited to some lifestyles
• Air Source Heat Pumps
– Less cost effective than GSHP
– Far less restricted in application
– Not suited to some lifestyles
• Linkage to heat storage
– Hot water storage within the day
– Longer term storage depending on building and geology
• 20 million 1.5 kWe heat pumps – 30 GW

• System Level
– Demand might double
through fuel substitution
– Most of this new demand is
time shiftable to a degree
– Most of the time shiftability is
within the day, not over
longer periods
– Without a way to manage
demand, net impact is a
much larger demand
problem, with growth across
the 24 hours
Issues and opportunity in demand
• Street Level
– Fashion effect – single streets
full of early adopters of EVs
and ASHPs?
– Local demand increases
x2…x5?
– Massive need to reinforce
local networks
– Management of demand
becomes essential to turn this
into a manageable size of
problem
Both a problem and an opportunity in a
world where generation sources are significantly intermittent

• Utility Scale
– Gas (CCS)
– Coal (CCS)
– Nuclear
– Hydro
– Onshore Wind
– Offshore Wind
– Biomass and waste
– Wave and tidal stream
– Tidal barrage
Generation – a story of diversity
• Local scale
– CHP on fossil fuel
– CHP on biomass
– Solar PV
– Hydro
– Small wind
– “nuke in a box”???
• Other (not UK at any scale)
– CSP
– Geothermal
– Utility scale solar PV

Generation flexibility now compared to future
Technology
Coal non CCS
Gas CCGT non CCS
Nuclear non PWR
Coal CCS
Gas CCGT CCS
Wind onshore
Wind offshore
Hydro
Biomass
Wave/tidal
Tidal Barrage
Nuclear PWR
UK Scale Now
Large
Large
Large
None
None
Small
Small
Small
Small
None
None
Small
UK Scale 2020/30+
Small
Smaller than now
None
Large
Large
Medium
Large
Small
Medium
Medium?
None/Large
Large
Flexibility
Good
Good
None
?? OK
?? OK
Self dispatch
Self dispatch
Good
OK
Self dispatch
Self dispatch
Limited

Coal with carbon capture
• Coal currently about 30% of UK
GWh
• Technology not proven in
aggregate but applied piecemeal
before
• Move to (ultra)supercritical plant
in parallel with CCS
developments?
• CCS flexibility predicted to be
reasonable but no experience to
prove it
• (U)SC plant flexibility not as good
as current subcritical fleet
• UK has recently cancelled support
to first CCS project but keeps
looking. Possible EU support.
Seems almost certain than flexibility will be reduced
compared to present coal fleet, but some may remain.
Will it happen in UK?

Gas with carbon capture
• A technology still in development
• More difficult than coal to capture the CO 2
because it is more dilute in the exhaust
stream
• Seems likely to have similar flexibility to coal
CCS (ie. reasonable but not as good as today’s
unabated CCGT plant)
• Likely to move up the political agenda to avoid
a dash for shale gas… or not
Some flexibility seems likely, and (subject to regulations)
you could always turn off the CCS to gain flexibility!

Nuclear
• Received wisdom: Nuclear=baseload ie inflexible
• PWR fleets in France and Germany can load follow to a
degree
• Latest designs appear to have more inherent flexibility
• Concerns over thermal cycling shortening plant life
significantly if this is done aggressively
• Very little experience to go on
• Plant owners may be reluctant to flex their new $5bn assets
in this context
• Impact of Fukushima on financeability and public acceptance?
• Impact of Flamanville cost overruns on confidence?
There is some flexibility in nuclear, but
at a practical level nobody quite knows how much yet!

Wind
• Self dispatching plant with annual load factors typically
between 20% and 45%
• What matters for the power system is not annual load factor
but hour by hour generation
• Some lack of correlation across different UK sites (and more
across Europe generally), which gives some diversity
• Significant periods of sustained high output and sustained
close to zero output across a UK portfolio (and also a
European portfolio, but to a lesser degree)
• Short term wind forecasting (hour ahead) is good and
improving
• Plans for 33 GW of wind in UK by around 2025
– Current maximum demand=60 GW, minimum demand=35 GW
Wind at this scale will have a major impact
on flexibility requirements of other generation and/or demand

Source: Poyry
Wind correlations

• Small in UK but big
elsewhere
• Very flexible if water is
available
– Irrigation demands?
– Modern schemes tend to
have less reservoir
storage to reduce
environmental impact
– Some schemes are
entirely run of river and
self dispatch
Hydro

• Probably not large in UK
•Potential large scale opportunities
in N Africa exporting to Europe
•Very large opportunities in some
countries (need sun, space)
• Load factors typically 17-20%
•Output can correlate nicely with
peak demands (air conditioning)
•Predictability depends on location
•Salt storage possible for CSP
technologies
Solar

Biomass and waste
• Various technologies
• Currently preferred plant at large scale is mass
burn
• This looks like coal plant with additionally
complicated fuel handling, ash handling and
emissions control
• In principle this plant is flexible, but not yet
really tested
• Scale in UK for electricity - medium

Wave,Tidal Stream, Tidal Barrage
• Still at development/early deployment stage
except for barrages, which are proven
• Output is intermittent but predictable
• Maintenance availabilities not yet clear
• Scale is potentially large if cost can be brought
down, but that seems challenging at the
moment

Comparative generating costs, base case– 2009 start
£/MWh
Capital Costs Fixed operating Costs Variable Operating Costs Fuel Costs
Carbon Costs Decomm and w aste fund CO2 transport and storage
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
-
Gas Plant - CCGT
Gas Plant - CCGT
with CCS
Coal Plant - Pulversied
fuel, ASC with FGD
Coal Plant - Pulversied
fuel, ASC with FGD
and CCS
Coal Plant - Pulversied
fuel, ASC with FGD
and retro-fitted CCS
Coal Plant - IGCC
Coal Plant - IGCC with
CCS
Wind - Onshore Wind
Wind - Offshore Wind
Wind - Offshore Wind
R3
Nuclear - Compact
modular PWR

Generation - conclusions
• Large amounts of wind will drive other
generation to be more flexible
• But most other generation is becoming less
flexible
• Significant uncertainties over future flexibility
of coal CCS, gas CCS, new nuclear
• Other countries will have their own version of
this problem

Source: Poyry
Hour by hour flexibility requirement

Solutions
• International interconnection to smooth the
problem
• Integrate demand management via a smart
grid
• More storage
• Lots of low cost peaking power

With
NW Europe
Ireland
Norway
Iceland
North Sea
Supergrid
Med/N Africa
Exisiting GW
2
0.5
0
0
0
0
Interconnection possibilities
Future GW
5?
1?
1
1
10+
10+
Comment
Seems serious
Seems serious
Longer term
Uncertain
Uncertain

What would more European interconnection deliver?
• Less correlated renewables across Europe
• More diverse renewables (potentially hydro,
solar, geothermal as well as wind)
• Ability to share peaking and backup capacity
• More work needed to understand costs,
benefits and limitations
• To make a difference on a European scale,
capacities would need to be many 10s of GW

Management of demand – the smart grid
• Key to enabling demand to participate
• Mostly around IT and measurement/control
at very high granularity
– Distribution substation level
– House level
– Appliance level
• Requires sophisticated metering, comms and
tariff platforms
• An intensive R, D and D area worldwide

Fossil-fuel power plants
Offshore wind
nuclear power plants
Transmission control centres
Transmission networks
Industry loads
Represents two-way power and data flows
Illustration of a Smart Grid
Commercial customers
distribution control centres
distribution networks
Distributed CHP
Distributed generation
Customers with smart meter, electric vehicle,
and PV panel and heat pumps
Smart home, with PV, storage
and smart meters

Benefits to the power network owner
• Improved efficiency of investment in power assets
– i) increasing the utilisation;
– ii) deferring building new assets; and
– iii) facilitating demand response
• Integration of intermittent renewable generation
• Emission reductions – low carbon
• Enhancement of power system security
• Quality and reliability of power supply increased
• Improved power network operational efficiency

Challenges - Technical
• Handling of mega data
– Data privacy
– Cyber security
– Architecture
• Standardization and interoperability
• True readiness of technologies
• Full understanding of technologies and implications of deployment
• Capital constraints
• Approvals
• Policy and financial incentives

Challenges - Institutional
• Much greater need for stakeholders to work
together
– Network utilities
– Municipalities
– Landlords and householders
– Operators of car parks
– Vehicle and appliance manufacturers
– Government
• Difficulties in defining the business case – costs are
borne by different parties to those who benefit
• Consumer engagement

“I don’t pay the bill, why
should I change my behaviour”
“I don’t trust RWE or EdF to know
when I’m using energy”
“Washing clothes at night,
whatever next?”
“Why should I have to
worry about all this?”
Consumer engagement
• Inconvenience
• Privacy
• Time spent
• Learning needed
• Priority versus other
things

• Cost savings (versus
other low carbon
options)
• People feel they “own”
their domestic energy
economy
• Helps promote
behaviour that avoids
waste
• Fashionable?
Consumer engagement
“I like the cheaper price, and
don’t mind the minor inconvenience”
“My smart meter tells me a lot
about how much I waste – it’s
changed my outlook on helping
to save the planet”
“I’ve contracted with a service
company, they take care of
everything”

Smart Grid Costs
• Not clear at the moment
• Main elements are:
– Metering
– Data processing and communications
– Sensing and
– Sophisticated energy management systems
– Home automation
• Alternatives (heavy network reinforcement, standby
thermal generation) are much higher cost
• All futures will be substantially more expensive than
today if decarbonisation remains a priority
A major policy conundrum – will need to be
conceived and partly built ahead of need

• Pumped storage
• Compressed Air
• Flywheels
• Cryogenics
• Battery
• Electric vehicle
batteries?
• Other
• Duration of storage
Storage
• Round trip efficiency
• Capex, opex
• Dispatchability
Potentially very significant, but costs tend to be large

Open cycle GTs and diesels – get out of jail (almost)
free
• Cheap
• Rapidly deployable
• Technically proven
• Very flexible
• BUT
– Inefficient (25-40%)
– High carbon
– Use scarce fuels (GTs)
– Concerns over other emissions if non premium fuels used (diesels)
• The problem solver of choice in countless countries whose
energy policies have gone wrong!
Nobody wants to admit it, but they will have
a role, it’s just a question of how big a role.

Conclusions
• Lots of unsolved problems – great for future energy
engineers
• Policymakers are just beginning to recognise the
complexity of the issue
• Modelling is complex and full of uncertainty
• Solutions will require a high degree of integration
across disciplines and along value chains
• This presentation has focussed on UK, every country
has its own version of this problem, they are all
different
How would this look in your country (if not UK)?

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