National Voter Survey in Egypt - Danish Institute for Parties and ...

2nd National Voter Survey in Egypt
Press Release
Cairo
8 October 2011
Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS)
Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute

Content
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About the survey
Summary of Key Findings
The Parliamentary Election
Current Affairs in Egypt
The Presidential Election
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About the Survey
• The results of the survey can be published from October 23, 2011 at 12. pm Egyptian Time (or
5. pm. GMT)
• The survey contains 2400 responses from randomly selected Egyptian nationals, aged 18
years and above, and covering 21 governorates.
• The survey is the second of four surveys to be completed before Egypt's next parliamentary
election expected in November 2011.
• The survey was conducted by Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS)
from September 16 to September 27 via face-to-face interviews.
• Results can only be published using the quote "survey by Al-Ahram Centre for Political and
Strategic Studies".
• This survey is supported by a group of international organizatoins led by the Danish-Egyptian
Dialogue Institute (DEDI)
• For comments contact:
• Dr. Gamal Abdel Gawad Soltan, ACPSS (+20101528417, gamal.soltan@gmail.com)
• Mr. Jakob Erle, Director of DEDI (+20100043860, je@dedi.org.eg)
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Content
1
2
3
4
5
About the survey
Summary of Key Findings
The Parliamentary Election
Current Affairs in Egypt
The Presidential Election
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Summary of Key Findings (Survey 2400 respondents, Sep. 16-27)
Parliamentary Elections:
• There are a higher proportion of decided voters for the upcoming elections in September compared to August. 62% of the voters that
intend to vote in elections have decided which party to vote for. In august there were 43% decided voters.
• Stability/security is high on the voters’ agenda. In September 40 % of Egyptians state that security/stability is the most important issue
that the needs to addressed. This is an increase from 27% in August. The other two issues that are high on the agenda are ”reducing daily
living expenses” (23%) and ”unemployment” (21%).
• The Freedom and Justice Party (Muslim Brotherhood) increases their popular support for the upcoming parliamentary elections. The
party enjoys support from 39% of the decided voters in September up from 31,5% in August.
• The liberal Al Wafd party and Freedom and Justice party coalition partner also increases their support. Al Wafd stands to gain 20% of
the votes in September up from 14,8% in August.
• The political parties are viewed more favorably. As the elections day is getting nearer and awareness about the political parties increases
the population views the party more favorably. The Freedom and Justice Party and the Al Wafd party also have the best
favorables/unfavorables.
Current Affairs:
• Egyptians view bullying, illegal drugs, robbery and illegal weapons as serious problems in their neighborhood. Around 40% of the
Egyptian views these four issues as serious problems.
• Egyptians favor martial law over civil law to address the security concerns in their neighborhood. A clear majority of 65% wants martial
law imposed to address problems in their neighborhood. Only 34% favors civil law.
• Protesters should be prevented from using the Tahrir Square. 65% of the Egyptian either agrees or strongly agrees that protesters should
be prevented from using the Tahrir Square.
• Egyptians favor a measured response to the crisis with Israel using diplomatic channels. The population wants to keep the peace treaty
with Israel, but favor a renegotiation. Following the killing of Egyptian soldiers on the Israeli-Egyptian border, the stance is that the response
should be an apology from Israel. The people morever want to put pressure on Israel in relation to the question of Palestine.
• Egyptians trust the judicial system to properly deal with the trail of former President Mubarak. A clear majority of 67% agree that the
trail of Former President Mubarak should be completed no matter what and 78% are willing to accept whatever the outcome of the trail is.
Presidential Elections:
• Amr Moussa still has a commanding lead in the presidential race. There has been little development in the support for the presidential
candidates and former Secretary General of the Arab League and Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa still has a commanding lead in the
presidential race as he gets support from 45% of decided voters. Ahmed Shafiq (former interim prime minister) is second with 13% of the
decided voters.
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
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Content
1
2
3
4
5
About the survey
Summary of Key Findings
The Parliamentary Election
Current Affairs in Egypt
The Presidential Election
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Parliamentary Election:
Election Participation and Decided Voters
How many will participate in the upcoming parliamentary
elections? (% of Egyptians above 18)
August September
Voting 82% 73%
Not voting 18% 27%
Decided and undecided voters (% of voters that will particpate) August September
Decided voters 43% 62%
Undecided 57% 38%
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
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Parliamentary Election:
Issues on the Voters’ Agenda in August and September (% of Population)
Issues (% of all Egyptian above 18 years of age) August September
Security / Stability 27% 40%
Reducing Daily Living Expenses 27% 23%
Unemployment 18% 21%
Corruption 4% 3%
Raising Incomes 4% 3%
Economic Growth 7% 2%
Educational Reform 1% 2%
Continue Removing Former Regime Figures 4% 1%
Establishing Democracy 1% 1%
Social justice 1% 0%
Other 7% 4%
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
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Parliamentary Election:
Issues on the Voters’ Agenda in August and September (% of Population)
Security / Stability
Reducing Daily Living Expenses
Unemployment
Other
August
27%
27%
18%
28%
September
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
40%
23%
21%
16%
100%
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Parliamentary Election:
Party Support in August and September (% of Decided Voters)
Party August September
Freedom and Justice (Muslim Brotherhood) 31,5% 39,0%
Al-Wafd Party 14,8% 20,0%
Al-Nour Party or any Muslim salafist party 6,0% 6,8%
Al-Misryeen Al-Ahrar Party (The Free Egyptians Party) 7,5% 6,0%
Al-Adl 2,6% 4,7%
Al-karama Party 1,9% 3,8%
Al-Ghad Party 1,4% 3,5%
Egypt National party or any other party that consist of ex-NDP members 0,4% 2,8%
Al-Arabi Al-Nasseri Party 3,7% 2,7%
Youth Revolution Coallition 17,2% 2,0%
The democratic Front Party 1,4% 1,3%
Al-Wasat Party 1,6% 1,0%
Al-Tagamu' Party 2,2% 0,7%
Egyptian Democratic Social Party 5,2% 0,6%
Egypt Freedom Party 1,6% 0,6%
Other 1,0% 4,4%
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of age
across 22 governorates
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Parliamentary Election :
Party Support in August and September (% of Decided Voters)
Freedom and Justice (Muslim Brotherhood)
Al-Wafd Party
Al-Nour Party or any Muslim salafist party
Al-Misryeen Al-Ahrar Party (The Free Egyptians Party)
Other
100%
32%
15%
6%
8%
40%
August
100%
39%
20%
7%
6%
28%
September
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
100%
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Parliamentary Election:
Party Favorable/unfavorable (% of Population)
The al-Wafd Party
The Freedom and Justice Party
The al-Adl Party
The al-Ghad Party
The Free Egyptians Party
The al-Karama Party
The Egyp’t Freedom Party
The Arab Naserite Party
The al-Tagamou Party
The al-Wasat Party
The Egypt’s social Democratic Party
The el-Nour Party
The Democratic Front Party
The People’s Socialist Coalition Party
The Egypt’s National Party
-36%
-14%
-7%
-10%
-11%
-2%
-12%
-18%
-19%
-47%
-23%
53%
29%
-31% 54%
23%
-24%
27%
24%
2%
-31% 33% 2%
-29% 30% 1%
-26% 26% 0%
-26%
-30%
-32%
-39%
Unfavorable
-29%
-29%
-30%
-30%
23%
22%
18%
17%
13%
11%
10%
Favorable
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
25%
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Parliamentary Election:
Party Favorables from August to September (% of population)
The al-Wafd Party
The Freedom and Justice Party
The al-Adl Party
The al-Ghad Party
The Free Egyptians Party
The al-Karama Party
The Egyp’t Freedom Party
The Arab Naserite Party
The al-Tagamou Party
The al-Wasat Party
The Egypt’s social Democratic Party
The el-Nour Party
The Democratic Front Party
The People’s Socialist Coalition Party
The Egypt’s National Party
11%
13%
8% 11%
10%
13%
14%
14%
17%
14%
16%
16%
18%
20%
19%
20%
23%
22%
24%
25%
27%
26%
30%
33%
36%
36%
August
September
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of age
across 22 governorates
53%
54%
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Content
1
2
3
4
5
About the survey
Summary of Key Findings
The Parliamentary Election
Current Affairs in Egypt
The Presidential Election
14

Security Problems:
Serious Security Problems in the Neighborhood (% of Population)
Bullying (BALTAGA) in your neighborhood
Illegal drugs in your neighborhood
Robery in your neighborhood
Illegal weapons in your neighborhood
Property trespassing in your neighborhood
Harassment of women in your neighborhood 13%
Very serious Problem Serious Problem Limited Problem Not a problem
32% 18% 16%
34%
Street vendors controlling the streets in your neighborho 13% 15% 18% 53%
15%
28%
28%
27%
12%
13%
100%
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
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23%
21%
18%
22%
21%
16%
17%
22%
52%
55%
33%
35%
27%

Security Problems:
Martial Law to Deal with Security Problems (% of Population)
How we can deal with the increased thefts,
illegal arms and bullying
65%
1%
34%
Civil law must be applied
Martial law must be applied
Don't know
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
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Egypt and Israel:
Egypt should use Diplomatic Channels (% of Population)
Stance on the state of Egyptian-Israel relations in relation to
the Palestinians
Must prepare for war for Arabs to achieve their goals
41%
Must practice powerful diplomatic, political and economic
4%
Full-fledged talks must take place to return Palestinians
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
55%
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Egypt and Israel:
Egypt should Demand Apology from Israel (% of Population)
What the government should do towards Israel following the
killing of Egyptian soldiers on the borders
Ending the peace-treaty between Egypt and Israel
Expelling the Israeli ambassador from Egypt
Recalling the Egyptian ambassador from Israel
11%
12%
7%
70%
Demanding a formal apology and an investigation into the
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of age
across 22 governorates
18

Egypt and Israel:
Stance towards the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty (% of Population)
Not useful for Egypt and must be terminated but gradually
Not useful for Egypt and must be terminated immediatly
4%
Stance towards the Egyptian-Israeli Peace treaty
11%
62%
Necessary for Egypt but it must be amended
Necessary for Egypt and must continue to exist
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
23%
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The Trail of former President Mubarak:
The Trail should be completed as planned (% of Population)
What do you think about the trial of the former president Mubarak?
67%
The trail should be completed no matter what
He should be punished to set an example for future offici
10%
5%
The trail should end - Mubarak has received his penalty
2%
He should be acquited
17%
He should be released in exchange for his wealth
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
20

The Trail of former President Mubarak:
People will accept the outcome of the legal proces (% of Population)
Only death penalty is acceptable to me
Position on the possible outcomes of
Mubarak's trial
He should be acquited
Only imprisonment is acceptable to me
9%
6%
7%
78%
Accept whatever the outcome
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
21

Protesters on the Tahrir Sqaure:
Protesters should be Prevented from Using Tahrir Sqaure (% of Population)
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Preventing protesters from using Tahrir Square
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
21%
13%
23%
42%
100%
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Content
1
2
3
4
5
About the survey
Summary of Key Findings
The Parliamentary Election
Current Affairs in Egypt
The Presidential Election
23

Presidential Election:
Electoral Support for Presidential Candidates (% of votes)
Amr Moussa
Ahmed Shafik
Omar Soliman
Hamdin Sabahi
Hazem Salah Abu Ismail
Ayman Nour
Selim El-Awa
Mohamed El-Baradei
Hesham El-Bastawisi
Abdel Moneim Abou El-Foutouh
Magdi Hatata
Mortada Mansour
Mohamed Ali Bilal
Abdallah Al-Ashaal
Bossayna Kamel
5,3%
5,7%
5,2%
5,2%
6,5%
5,0%
5,1%
4,7%
3,9%
3,5%
3,8%
2,4%
2,3%
1,6%
2,1%
1,5%
0,9%
0,7%
0,3%
0,5%
0,1%
0,2%
0,1%
0,2%
11,7%
13,2%
9,0%
10,8%
August
September
43,8%
44,8%
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
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Presidential Election:
Favorables/unfavorables of Presidential Candidates (% of poulation)
Amr Moussa
Ahmed Shafiek
Omar Soliman
Hamden Sabahi
Seliem ElAwaa
Hesham ElBasatwesy
Hazem Salah AbuIsmail
Magdy Hatata
Abdel Moniem Abu Fotouh
Mohamed Ali Belal
Abdallah ElAshaal
Ayman Nour
Bosaina Kamel
Mortada Mansour
Mohamed ElBaradei
-58%
-50%
-27%
0%
-33%
-12%
-14%
-15%
-15%
-16%
-18%
-22%
-30%
-30%
-25% -33%
-73%
-61%
-51%
Unfavorable
7%
15%
-32% 15%
-39%
8%
6%
11%
15%
24%
Favorable
-27% 64%
37%
-39% 46%
6%
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
-43%
-33%
-33%
-32%
-29%
21%
19%
17%
14%
43%
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Presidential Election:
Development in Favorables from August to September (% of population)
Amr Moussa
Ahmed Shafiek
Omar Soliman
Hamden Sabahi
Seliem ElAwaa
Hesham ElBasatwesy
Hazem Salah AbuIsmail
Magdy Hatata
Abdel Moniem Abu Fotouh
Mohamed Ali Belal
Abdallah ElAshaal
Ayman Nour
Bosaina Kamel
Mortada Mansour
Mohamed ElBaradei
7,2%
8,0%
7,7%
7,3%
21,0%
20,6%
20,1%
18,8%
21,0%
17,1%
12,0%
14,1%
14,5%
14,7%
14,4%
14,6%
5,9%
6,4%
10,1%
10,6%
13,7%
15,5%
August September
22,4%
23,9%
30,8%
39,6% 45,6%
42,7%
54,3% 63,7%
Source: Two surveys from Sep. 16-27 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each with 2400 respondents of Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of
age across 22 governorates
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