Exergy evolution of the mineral capital on earth - circe

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4 STARTING POINT, OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE information source. As Faber [91] claimed, <strong>the</strong> true intertemporal scarcity <strong>of</strong> environmental goods must be analyzed and appropriate indicators for <strong>the</strong> scarcity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se goods must be found. In this PhD, we have dived in data bases <strong>of</strong> many different institutions, organizations, universities and journals, searching for global numbers <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>mineral</strong> <strong>capital</strong> on earth. For someone that never faced that task, it is surprising <strong>the</strong> lack <strong>of</strong> existing information about our resources not only in <strong>the</strong> past, but also in <strong>the</strong> present. This is a clear indicator <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> little importance that humankind has placed in investigating <strong>the</strong> resources that nature gives us for free. Generally, <strong>the</strong> institutions owning information about resources do not interpret <strong>the</strong> compiled values. And ironically, many studies claiming <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> natural resources are rarely based on <strong>the</strong> physical statistics provided by <strong>the</strong> formers. More resources data bases, better global statistics, <strong>the</strong> opening <strong>of</strong> global information channels and impartial and serious interpretations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> information are key factors for transformation to sustainability. And <strong>the</strong> data interpretation must be undertaken with <strong>the</strong> help <strong>of</strong> appropriate indicators. This PhD has tried to fill with physical content some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sociological messages about resource scarcity published elsewhere. This has been accomplished by making a rigorous analysis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> global <strong>mineral</strong>s on earth through an indicator based on <strong>the</strong> second law <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>rmodynamics. The next section provides an overview <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> different available scarcity indicators with its capabilities and drawbacks, so as to compare <strong>the</strong>m to <strong>the</strong> indicator chosen in this PhD. 1.3 Scarcity indicators Consideration <strong>of</strong> scarcity and its measurement requires clarification <strong>of</strong> what we mean by scarcity. As Zwartendyk et al. [414] argue, physical scarcity refers to <strong>the</strong> relative rarity <strong>of</strong> an element or <strong>mineral</strong> substance in nature; it has nothing to do with human effort. Economic scarcity has very much to do with <strong>the</strong> interests and needs <strong>of</strong> humans. It reflects that work is required to obtain <strong>mineral</strong> products and that we are willing to pay a price for <strong>the</strong>m. Generally, <strong>the</strong> greater <strong>the</strong> physical scarcity <strong>of</strong> a <strong>mineral</strong>, <strong>the</strong> costlier it will be to obtain, so its economic scarcity may be greater as well. The scientific community has already started to study this issue and some physical and economic indicators have been proposed. In <strong>the</strong> renowned work Scarcity and Growth 2 (1963) <strong>of</strong> Barnet and Morse [20], extraction costs were used as scarcity indicators. Extraction cost is computed as <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> labor and <strong>capital</strong> required to produce a unit <strong>of</strong> output. The same indicator 2 Scarcity and Growth was <strong>the</strong> first systematic empirical examination <strong>of</strong> historical trends.
Scarcity indicators 5 was used until <strong>the</strong> update <strong>of</strong> that work: Scarcity and Growth Reconsidered [325]. This measure is founded on <strong>the</strong> classical economics view that with diminishing marginal returns and finite natural resources, <strong>the</strong> cost <strong>of</strong> natural resource extraction should increase as demand increases and depletion occurs. Krautkraemer [188] argued in Scarcity and Growth Reconsidered that extraction cost is an inherently static measure; it does not capture future effects that are important for indicating natural resource scarcity. In addition, extraction cost captures information about only <strong>the</strong> supply side <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> market. If demand is growing more rapidly than extraction cost is declining, <strong>the</strong>n extraction cost will give a false indication <strong>of</strong> decreasing scarcity (<strong>the</strong> opposite is also possible). Probably <strong>the</strong> most used indicator nowadays is price. Price incorporates information about <strong>the</strong> demand for <strong>the</strong> resource and possible expectations about future demand and availability. According to Fisher [95], <strong>the</strong> resource price would “summarize <strong>the</strong> sacrifices, direct and indirect, made to obtain a unit <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> resource”. Naredo [237] claims though that standard economy is only concerned with what being directly useful to man, is also acquirable, valuable and produce-able. For this reason, most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> natural resources, remain outside <strong>the</strong> object <strong>of</strong> analysis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> economic system. And <strong>the</strong> price-fixing mechanisms, rarely take into account <strong>the</strong> concrete physical characteristics which make <strong>the</strong>m valuable. Ruth [294] states that for prices to subsume all required information to make an intertemporally optimal choice about material and energy and <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> production, markets must be efficient, and preferences <strong>of</strong> current and future generations have to be anticipated. Additionally, current and future technologies must be fully described. In contrast, prices ra<strong>the</strong>r reflect <strong>the</strong> incomplete description <strong>of</strong> current technologies, preferences <strong>of</strong> present generations, and current institutional settings. Though non renewable resources are becoming more and more scarce, prices have not followed <strong>the</strong> same trend. According to Hotelling [145], prices should raise with scarcity, since low cost resources normally would be used first and quantities <strong>of</strong> extraction normally would decrease over time. On <strong>the</strong> contrary, historical statistics show that costs <strong>of</strong> extraction and prices have mostly decreased over time [313]. This apparent contradiction is due to technological innovation but also to <strong>the</strong> lack <strong>of</strong> information about scarcity. Reynolds [277] states that true scarcity is only revealed through prices towards <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> exhaustion. Physical indicators are usually based ei<strong>the</strong>r on mass or energy. Generally, all energy resources are assessed in terms <strong>of</strong> its energy content, what allows a direct comparison between <strong>the</strong>m. On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, non-fuel <strong>mineral</strong>s are usually physically and individually assessed in terms <strong>of</strong> tonnage and grade. It is obvious that <strong>mineral</strong> resources evaluated in that way cannot be easily compared, and a global number for <strong>the</strong> <strong>mineral</strong>’s <strong>capital</strong> on earth cannot be given, as mass and grade are not additive. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, assimilating such a great amount <strong>of</strong> information for each resource is not always easy and not very useful for decision makers.
Page 1: Mechanical Engineering Ph.D. Thesis
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Page 57 and 58: The continental crust 37 2.5 The co
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Results 91 • The orders o
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Results 93 Table 3.5: Mineralogical
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Results 101 Table 3.6. Crustal abun
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106 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH Tabl
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108 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH nowa
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110 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH exce
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112 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH Tida
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114 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH al.
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116 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH volu
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120 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH Coal
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122 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH Figu
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124 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH In t
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132 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH ing
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134 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH •
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136 THE RESOURCES OF THE EARTH •
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Chapter 5 Thermodynamic models for
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The reference environment 143 5.2.1
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The reference environment 145 envir
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The reference environment 147 where
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The reference environment 149 where
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The reference environment 151 As ex
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The reference environment 153 5.2.3
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The reference environment 155 Table
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Prediction of Enth
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Summary of <strong
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Chapter 6 The ther
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The properties of
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An approach to the
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Chapter 7 The time factor in <stron
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The exergy distance 229 However, an
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The tons of <stron
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The Hubbert peak applied to exergy
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Chapter 8 The exergy evolut
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A prediction of <s
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Final reflections 321 consequently
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Final reflections 323 problems are
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Final reflections 325 8.5.3 The nee
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Summary of <strong
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332 CONCLUSIONS of
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334 CONCLUSIONS In the</str
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336 CONCLUSIONS is lost. Therefore,
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338 CONCLUSIONS According to our ca
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340 CONCLUSIONS which it is based w
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342 CONCLUSIONS have associated an
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344 CONCLUSIONS dation velocity, <s
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346 CONCLUSIONS fuel composition th
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348 CONCLUSIONS The main activity t
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Appendix A Additional calculations
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Input data. Mineralogical compositi
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Estimation of <str
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Estimation of <str
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Exergy calculation
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Exergy calculation
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Exergy calculation
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Australian fossil fuel production 4
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World’s fuel production 405 % <st
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World’s fuel production 407 A.8.4
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The Hubbert peak applied to world p
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Fuel consumption in the</st
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Nomenclature, Figures, Tables and R
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416 NOMENCLATURE ˙D : Minimum exer
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418 NOMENCLATURE T : Temperature [K
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420 NOMENCLATURE r w : River water
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422 LIST OF FIGURES 7.1 Conceptual
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424 LIST OF FIGURES 8.21 Actual exe
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426 LIST OF TABLES 3.6 Crustal abun
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428 LIST OF TABLES 8.6 Specific exe
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References [1] Abare. Energy update
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433 [29] BGS. Minerals - what makes
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435 [59] C. Cleveland and M. Ruth.
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459 [380] P. Vieillard. Modèle de
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461 [406] M. J. Wilhelm and K. C. W
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Exergy evolution of the mineral capital on earth - circe

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