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62 The Nature of the Political System The Nature of Organizations TABLE3.2 Jccasionally make risky choices for pwposes of self-interest, the parochial interests of the :>rganizationor subunit may dominate decision making. In fact, one reality of decision making in the policy realm is the rarity of decisions being made solely by an individual. Accordingly, it is significant that the values of the group can sway independent reason, that the capabilities of decision-making groups vary, and that groupthink (subordinates fearing to dissent, exclusion of dissenters, pressure to reach consensus and preserve congeniality and cohesion, being impervious to information discordant with the desired outcome) is an ever-present danger in small working groups (Janis, p. 1982). Thus, the nature of the political system (and the messy, multiple-entry, never-ending, incremental policy process it creates) and the nature of organizations and their impact on decision making and policy analysis (represented by ideas like role theory, parochial interests, and groupthink) do not suggest the rational model as a good description of, or explanation of, the world it models. Yehezkel Dror (cited in Crew 1992, pp. 73-74) characterizes organizational clecision making as political, not rational, in the sense that it is marked by the following: Bargainingandcoalition fonnulation, in which exchanges of favors, power calculations, personal relations, and similar variables are often the most important factors. The absence of clear operational goals, the presence of little data, and a very limited search for alternatives. The tendency to follow the line of least resistance; innovation and originality being rather scarce. The concentration of resources on acute and pressing issues to the neglect of long-tenn considerations. A tendency to minimize risks and to achieve defensibility. Dror's description wil1 sound familiar to anyone who has had significant experience dealing .vith organizations. Table 3-2 is a brief summation of the critique of the rational model fo- :using on the nature of the political system and the nature of organizations. PARTI . THEORY AND PRACTICE CHAPTER3 . CRITIQUES OF THE RATIONAL ApPROACH 63 SUMMARY OF THE POlITICAL/INSTITUTIONAL CRITIQUE begin this section by asking a related and simple question: does it matter who decides policy? Policyanalystsoperate in an American political system characterized by pluralism, federalism, fragmentation, checks and balances, incrementalism, and some degree of democracy. The political system encourages incremental instead of comprehensive policy change. Clear mandates rarely occur. Policy occurs rather than is made. Decision makers are guided by SOPs that create distinctive organizational cultures, behavioral patterns, and decision premises. Different organizations have different interest in policy determination and this contributes to different problem definitions. Organizational self-interest and survival come into play. 11/.Ideological/Philosophical 3roup theory rests on an accepted truism: groups compete to shape policy. Elite theory sug- ~ested elites might make policy different from the policy that the masses might produce. We 1 We contend that the ideological/philosophical critique of the rational model is powerful. We assume that your answer is "yes, of course" (or perhaps, more colloquially: "duh"). It would matter, if earlier you agreed with the description of a political system that helps set up policy battles due to its pluralistic nature and its failure to produce clear mandates. Or perhaps you accepted our contention that different institutions, different subunits, and different groups of humans could arrive at very different conclusions. It could be you think some individuals are more likely to be wooden-headed, or more intuitive, or better at sorting through volumes of data. Maybe you agreed with the idea that policy problems and facts are subjective and socially constructed, and that they are not objective, not neutral, and not able to decide policy. Certainly, the critiques raised earlier do relate to the critiques found in this new category. However, your answer probably did not depend on reading the earlier sections. The final set of critiques argue vociferously that it obviously matters who decides because of the following: Wehave differentbelief systems and different visions of the future. We valueand assumedifferentthings. We make subjectiveinterpretationsandjudgment calls. Policy decisionscommonlycreate winners and losers. In other words, fundamentally, policy analysis/policymaking is not about rationality, but about competing ideas, alternative views concerning morality and ethics, differing philosophies, and about who should get stuck with the bads or get rewarded with the goods. We will examine first the less visible ways that the who? affects the data we utilize, and then the more direct ways analysis and decision making are shaped by subjectivity. Data and Who? Experts and analysts are not exempt from biases, nor are they capable of being dispassionate; that is why it matters who is in the room when decisions are being made. Small-group theory also has made it clear that not all participants participate equally and not all participants' contributions are weighed equally. Onjuries, forexample,socialstatusirrelevantto thetaskat handcan influencethecourseof deliberations (e.g., see Bales, 1950). Moreover, personality and personal relations playa large role. Dei! Wright (1988), author of a seminal article on intergovernmental relations (IGR) cautioned: Strictly speaking. . . there are no relations among governments; there are only relations among officials who govern different units. The individual actions and auirudes of public officials are at the core of JGR. (p. 17) In his discussions of the Bush administration's failures during the breakup of Yugoslavia, Robert Hutchings (1997) points to the rejection a priori of military options due to the opposition of the Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs and due to the fact that the recent successof the Persian GulfWargave their opinions extra credibility(p. 308). As Deborah Stone (1988) elaborates: The rational ideal not only overstates the purity of information, it also exaggerates the rationality of people in using infonnation. . . . We are as much influenced by the source of infonnation-the person's race, looks, social manners, reputation, and credentials, or whether the source is a person or some other medium-as by the content. (p. 256) People are, consciously or not, driven by their belief systems, their ideology. Despite the rational model, we cannot, and arguably should not, leave our values behind. Our values,

64 models, expectations, and mental constructs precede and shape our selection of the data we then process. Is the problem an economic problem, a legal problem, a political problem, or not a problem at all? Our answer, the names or categories we apply, will affect which questions we ask and what information we pay attention to. Box 3-2 provides further insight into the power of ideology by examining the belief in black letter law. This is the common belief most people have that the law is clear, direct, and free from dispute. Box 3..i!Black--Letter'Lawr' In Karl N. Llewellyn's famous work on the legal system, The Bramble Bush (1951), he discussed the idea that whether or not a particular legal precedent applies is a subjective judgment that depends on taking a strict or loose view. The "loose" view takes the previous ruling as established law without taking into consideration the context and specific facts of the previous case. The "strict" view would argue that very little of the previous case applies in the here and now of these facts and this case. Llewellyn points out that some precedents are welcome, and others unwelcome, to the various judges and lawyers involved in the current case. Students reading Llewellyn are sometimes surprised to consider the idea that precedent (the legal principle of stare decisis) may be just another subjective tool. Those students are often even more disturbed by the writings of Jerome Frank. Jerome Frank was ajudge, a lawyer, and earlier, a teacher. Consider the following points he made in Law and the Modern Mind (1963): As the word indicates, thejudge in reaching a decision is making ajudgmenl. Judges, despite all their professional training, make decisions just like ordinary human beings. Just as we do, judges come to a conclusion and then work backward to find premises that will justify their conclusion. Judges pick and choose which precedents to apply to legitimate their decisions. The judgments of judges are shaped by their education, race, class, economic background, political background, and moral prejudices. Past experiences with "women, or blond women, or men with beards, or Southerners, or Italians, or Englishmen, or plumbers, or ministers, or college graduates, or Democrats" can color our judgment. Something as minor as a smell, a cough, a yawn, or a gesture can decide what the judge hears, remembers, and believes. Studies show that given the same set of facts, different judges decide cases and consequences differently. Judges decide based on hunchesand are deceivingthemselvesif they think they can ever escape who they are. As Kafka's The Trial makes clear, the law is not always what it seems. Jerome Frank's words make clear that judges are very human. Llewellyn makes clear that precedent is not something that removes subjectivity from the legal process. More recently, Jonathan Harr's nonfiction novel (and the movie by the same name it inspired) A Civi/Action portrayed a biased judge whose prejudices had a huge impact on the outcome of this heart-rending case. Black letter law? Nab. Sources: Kar] Uewellyn. 1951. The Bramble Bush. Oceana Press, as edited in Before The Law, 6th ed. 1998. John J. Bonsignore et al. eds.; Jerome Frank. 1963. Law and rhe Modern Mind. New York: Anchor Books Edition, as edited in Before The Law. 6th ed. 1998. John J. Bonsignore, et aI., eds.; Franz Kafka. 1998. The Trial. Transtion.lated New by Breon York: Mitchell. Random New House. York: Schoko Books; and Jonathan Harr. 1995. A Ci,'iI Acrion. Vintage Books Edi- PARTI . THEORY AND PRAClICE CHAPTER3 . CRfTlQUES OF THE RATIONAL ApPROACH 65 Even the decision to measure something reflects certain beliefs. If, after the appearance of a campus newspaper article on "blow-off' courses, the university or college you attend suddenly decides to measure how many "A" grades are ending up on the grade rosters its professors are turning in, it suggests that a problem does exist and that the number of As is common enough to count. Deciding only to count As also suggests that As are different enough from B+s to count them separately. It also suggests that the grade inflation "problem" is not at the bottom of the scale (perhaps it is even OK to give social promotions and what used to be known as a Gentlemen's C). It may imply that there are questions about rigor in certain departments and that grades are an accurate reflection of rigor. It implies that the result of this count may tell us how to resolve the problem: reduce the number of As students receive.s "Who?" also affects the data in a way perhaps best captured by the NIMBY syndrome. NIMBY (not in my back yard) reflects the reality that costs are not diffused equally across society,in a geographicalsense. Toxicwaste incineratorsmay seem a good idea, if they are located in somebody else's neighborhood. The meaning of the data can even be determined by where the who? live. The issue of discounting (adjusting the cost-benefit analysis of a program over time to reflect the changing value of constant dollars) is another illustration of the power of the who? to affect data. As with decision trees, discounting plugs a subjective determination by the analyst into a formula and creates the appearance of an objective and mathematical fact. The cost-benefit determination is liable to be entirely different if a discount rate of 5 percent is used rather than a discount rate of 10 percent. (In Chapter 8, "The Positivist Toolbox," we have a much more substantial explanation of discounting.) This relates to the last point we will make relating to who?: namely, that different individuals shape, select, and omit the facts used to make decisions. The Urban Institute studied welfare reform and noted that differences in how the population leaving the welfare rolls is defined (e.g., length of time off welfare, the reason they left, if they have stayed off) and how outcomes like employment are specifically measured, "have led to employment rate differences of as much as 20 percentage points for the same geographic areas (Brauner and Loprest 1999, p. 3). Braybrooke and Lindblom (1970) point out that "multiple conflicting values are championed by different participants" (p. 17). It is also worth noting that the way we dress up our statistics, the facts we place at the top of the page, and the adverbs and adjectives we use to qualify our findings are reflections of the ideology and interests of the analyst. To evaluate the preceding argument, consider a pledge to increase funding by 100 percent. Visualize graphing a 5 percent improvement in funding (from the base) over the last four years, a total of 20 percent. We drew the first graph using 10 percent increments that go from 0 to 100 percent and that cover the past three years and the next seven years-for a total of 10yearsone year at a time. We labeled the graph "A Troubled Decade" and wrote the following story about the funding situation below the graph: At the current pace of funding increases, it will take 16 more years for funding to reacl1 the target level, and by thai time inflation will have significantly discounted the value of the funding. Next, we used 10 percent increments thai go from 90 to 130 percent to compare funding four years ago, two years ago, and now (it assumes the same funding increases and base). We 'Stone's (2002) chapter on numbers, pp. )63-187. provided the general basis for this example,

62<br />

The Nature of the<br />

Political System<br />

The Nature of<br />

Organizations<br />

TABLE3.2<br />

Jccasionally make risky choices for pwposes of self-interest, the parochial interests of the<br />

:>rganizationor subunit may dominate decision making.<br />

In fact, one reality of decision making in the policy realm is the rarity of decisions being<br />

made solely by an individual. Accordingly, it is significant that the values of the group can<br />

sway independent reason, that the capabilities of decision-making groups vary, <strong>and</strong> that<br />

groupthink (subordinates fearing to dissent, exclusion of dissenters, pressure to reach consensus<br />

<strong>and</strong> preserve congeniality <strong>and</strong> cohesion, being impervious to information discordant<br />

with the desired outcome) is an ever-present danger in small working groups (Janis, p. 1982).<br />

Thus, the nature of the political system (<strong>and</strong> the messy, multiple-entry, never-ending,<br />

incremental policy process it creates) <strong>and</strong> the nature of organizations <strong>and</strong> their impact on decision<br />

making <strong>and</strong> policy analysis (represented by ideas like role theory, parochial interests, <strong>and</strong><br />

groupthink) do not suggest the rational model as a good description of, or explanation of, the<br />

world it models. Yehezkel Dror (cited in Crew 1992, pp. 73-74) characterizes organizational<br />

clecision making as political, not rational, in the sense that it is marked by the following:<br />

Bargaining<strong>and</strong>coalition fonnulation, in which exchanges of favors, power calculations,<br />

personal relations, <strong>and</strong> similar variables are often the most important factors.<br />

The absence of clear operational goals, the presence of little data, <strong>and</strong> a very limited search<br />

for alternatives.<br />

The tendency to follow the line of least resistance; innovation <strong>and</strong> originality being rather<br />

scarce.<br />

The concentration of resources on acute <strong>and</strong> pressing issues to the neglect of long-tenn<br />

considerations.<br />

A tendency to minimize risks <strong>and</strong> to achieve defensibility.<br />

Dror's description wil1 sound familiar to anyone who has had significant experience dealing<br />

.vith organizations. Table 3-2 is a brief summation of the critique of the rational model fo-<br />

:using on the nature of the political system <strong>and</strong> the nature of organizations.<br />

PARTI . THEORY AND PRACTICE CHAPTER3 . CRITIQUES OF THE RATIONAL ApPROACH 63<br />

SUMMARY OF THE POlITICAL/INSTITUTIONAL CRITIQUE begin this section by asking a related <strong>and</strong> simple question: does it matter who decides policy?<br />

Policyanalystsoperate in an American political system characterized<br />

by pluralism, federalism, fragmentation, checks <strong>and</strong> balances, incrementalism,<br />

<strong>and</strong> some degree of democracy.<br />

The political system encourages incremental instead of comprehensive<br />

policy change.<br />

Clear m<strong>and</strong>ates rarely occur.<br />

Policy occurs rather than is made.<br />

Decision makers are guided by SOPs that create distinctive organizational<br />

cultures, behavioral patterns, <strong>and</strong> decision premises.<br />

Different organizations have different interest in policy determination<br />

<strong>and</strong> this contributes to different problem definitions.<br />

Organizational self-interest <strong>and</strong> survival come into play.<br />

11/.Ideological/Philosophical<br />

3roup theory rests on an accepted truism: groups compete to shape policy. Elite theory sug-<br />

~ested elites might make policy different from the policy that the masses might produce. We<br />

1<br />

We contend that the ideological/philosophical critique of the rational model is powerful.<br />

We assume that your answer is "yes, of course" (or perhaps, more colloquially: "duh"). It<br />

would matter, if earlier you agreed with the description of a political system that helps set up<br />

policy battles due to its pluralistic nature <strong>and</strong> its failure to produce clear m<strong>and</strong>ates. Or perhaps<br />

you accepted our contention that different institutions, different subunits, <strong>and</strong> different groups<br />

of humans could arrive at very different conclusions. It could be you think some individuals<br />

are more likely to be wooden-headed, or more intuitive, or better at sorting through volumes of<br />

data. Maybe you agreed with the idea that policy problems <strong>and</strong> facts are subjective <strong>and</strong> socially<br />

constructed, <strong>and</strong> that they are not objective, not neutral, <strong>and</strong> not able to decide policy. Certainly,<br />

the critiques raised earlier do relate to the critiques found in this new category.<br />

However, your answer probably did not depend on reading the earlier sections. The final set<br />

of critiques argue vociferously that it obviously matters who decides because of the following:<br />

Wehave differentbelief systems <strong>and</strong> different visions of the future.<br />

We value<strong>and</strong> assumedifferentthings.<br />

We make subjectiveinterpretations<strong>and</strong>judgment calls.<br />

Policy decisionscommonlycreate winners <strong>and</strong> losers.<br />

In other words, fundamentally, policy analysis/policymaking is not about rationality, but<br />

about competing ideas, alternative views concerning morality <strong>and</strong> ethics, differing philosophies,<br />

<strong>and</strong> about who should get stuck with the bads or get rewarded with the goods.<br />

We will examine first the less visible ways that the who? affects the data we utilize, <strong>and</strong><br />

then the more direct ways analysis <strong>and</strong> decision making are shaped by subjectivity.<br />

Data <strong>and</strong> Who? Experts <strong>and</strong> analysts are not exempt from biases, nor are they capable of<br />

being dispassionate; that is why it matters who is in the room when decisions are being made.<br />

Small-group theory also has made it clear that not all participants participate equally <strong>and</strong> not all<br />

participants' contributions are weighed equally.<br />

Onjuries, forexample,socialstatusirrelevantto thetaskat h<strong>and</strong>can influencethecourseof<br />

deliberations (e.g., see Bales, 1950). Moreover, personality <strong>and</strong> personal relations playa large role.<br />

Dei! Wright (1988), author of a seminal article on intergovernmental relations (IGR) cautioned:<br />

Strictly speaking. . . there are no relations among governments; there are only relations among<br />

officials who govern different units. The individual actions <strong>and</strong> auirudes of public officials are<br />

at the core of JGR. (p. 17)<br />

In his discussions of the Bush administration's failures during the breakup of Yugoslavia,<br />

Robert Hutchings (1997) points to the rejection a priori of military options due to the opposition<br />

of the Department of Defense <strong>and</strong> the Joint Chiefs <strong>and</strong> due to the fact that the recent successof<br />

the Persian GulfWargave their opinions extra credibility(p. 308). As Deborah Stone<br />

(1988) elaborates:<br />

The rational ideal not only overstates the purity of information, it also exaggerates the<br />

rationality of people in using infonnation. . . . We are as much influenced by the source of<br />

infonnation-the person's race, looks, social manners, reputation, <strong>and</strong> credentials, or<br />

whether the source is a person or some other medium-as by the content. (p. 256)<br />

People are, consciously or not, driven by their belief systems, their ideology. Despite<br />

the rational model, we cannot, <strong>and</strong> arguably should not, leave our values behind. Our values,

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