Kismat FM - Ofcom Licensing

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Section 105(A): Ability To Maintain Proposed Service Kismat Radio We have prudently assumed that the TSA will be reduced by some 20%, reflecting the clear difference indicated by Ofcom between the measured coverage of Galaxy and this new licence. Applied to the Galaxy TSA of 2,257,000 we have therefore adopted an overall TSA base of just 1.8 million adults. However, this is largely irrelevant to the Asian audience, with a potential universe of around 149,000. Of these, 71,449 or just under half are aged 35-plus and 29% over 45. Our audience projections are essentially based on the target Asian population, though we have also included an equivalent reach calculation among the overall adult population of the reduced TSA. (ii) Projections for listenership ratings over the first three years of the service; Our audience projections are essentially based on the target Asian population, though we have also included an equivalent reach calculation among the overall adult population of the reduced TSA. Audience Projections MANCHESTER LICENCE – ASIAN TSA All M F 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Galaxy TSA 000's 2 257 1 093 1 164 365 359 439 339 326 429 Galaxy Profile % 100% 48% 52% 16% 16% 19% 15% 14% 19% Licence TSA 000's 1 800 872 928 291 286 350 271 260 342 Asian Profile % 100% 50% 50% 27% 25% 19% 14% 8% 7% Asian TSA 148 565 74 929 73 635 39 504 37 613 28 101 20 660 12 037 10 651 Kismat from Ipsos/RAJAR; ONS Census 2001 KISMAT RADIO MANCHESTER – AUDIENCE PROJECTIONS All M F 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Licence TSA 000's 1 800 872 928 291 286 350 271 260 342 Asian TSA 148 565 74 929 73 635 39 504 37 613 28 101 20 660 12 037 10 651 YEAR 1 Asian Reach % 30% 30% 30% 14% 22% 34% 45% 54% 51% Reach 44 570 22 479 22 091 5 531 8 275 9 554 9 297 6 500 5 432 Average Hours 10.0 10.1 9.9 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.4 10.0 Weekly Hours 000's 446 227 218 54 82 97 94 67 53 Licence TSA Reach % 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 1.9% 2.9% 2.7% 3.4% 2.5% 1.6% YEAR 2 Asian Reach % 35% 35% 35% 16% 26% 40% 53% 63% 60% Reach 51 998 26 225 25 773 6 452 9 654 11 147 10 847 7 583 6 337 Average Hours 10.5 10.6 10.4 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 10.9 10.5 Weekly Hours 000's 546 278 267 64 98 117 117 83 67 Licence TSA Reach % 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% 3.4% 3.2% 4.0% 2.9% 1.9% YEAR 3 Asian Reach % 39% 39% 39% 18% 29% 44% 59% 70% 56% Reach 57 940 29 222 28 718 7 190 10 757 12 421 12 086 8 450 7 061 Average Hours 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.0 Weekly Hours 000's 637 325 312 74 115 137 137 97 78 Licence TSA Reach % 3.2% 3.4% 3.1% 2.5% 3.8% 3.5% 4.5% 3.2% 2.1% Kismat Estimates Section 105 (A): Page 15
Section 105(A): Ability To Maintain Proposed Service Kismat Radio (iii) The expected impact of the proposed service on existing services, in listenership terms; A significant finding from the Survey was that over 40% of Asians did not listen to the radio regularly on a weekly basis. This compares with RAJAR data for the population as a whole that shows that 85% of people had listened to the radio weekly (and 90% nationally, confirming how the low score among Asians results in under-performance for the Manchester market as a whole). This represents a substantial pool of some 62,400 listeners who are clearly not satisfied with the existing choice of services. Of these, 66% said that they would be likely to listen to Kismat (20% very likely). We are therefore confident that Kismat will generate significant new listening to the radio in the area. Evidently some listening will be shared with or come from other stations including, to an extent, Asian Sound. But we expect this to be spread among other stations and not to affect Asian Sound disproportionately. Amongst those who listen regularly to radio and are likely to listen to Kismat, 39% listened currently to commercial radio (other than Asian Sound), 32% to BBC services (including BBC Asian Network) and 29% to Asian Sound. This confirms our impression that there remains a large proportion of Manchester's Asian community that does not presently listen to Asian Sound. RAJAR data for the Galaxy TSA (Q3-2004, Table 7) record 32,000 weekly listeners to BBC Asian Network for an average of 12.2 hours per week and 11,000 listeners to Sunrise Radio for an average of 7.9 hours. Together that represents some 30% of Asians in the Manchester area who are listening to non-local digital stations. Unfortunately, Asian Sound is not included in RAJAR data. However, data from our Survey (reviewed in Section 105 D below), indicated that Asian Sound had achieved weekly reach of 24% among Asians surveyed. A further 22% had listened to Asian Sound more occasionally, but not during the previous week. Put another way, more than half of the Asians sampled do not listen to Asian Sound. Kismat will extend listening in Manchester by attracting many Asians who either do not listen to the radio or who listen to stations other than Asian Sound. (iv) The basis on which the estimates have been calculated and assumptions. Overall our survey indicated that 73% of respondents would be likely to listen to Kismat, with 29% very likely and a further 44% quite likely. Among respondents who listen regularly to the radio this rose to 78% (36% very likely), whilst two-thirds of those who do not presently listen to the radio regularly were also likely to listen to Kismat. These figures provide clear evidence of substantial support for Kismat and give confidence in the likely success of the format. But they cannot be interpreted as implying reach, nor do we believe it sound to attempt to compute reach from likely listening by any hypothetical mathematic formula. Similarly, we took into account the frequency of likely listening shown in the survey but have not extrapolated average listening hours from such data. We also looked at a number of other factors, including RAJAR data for the Manchester market (Galaxy TSA) and for Sunrise Radio in London. Unfortunately, RAJAR data is not available for Asian Sound but our Survey was designed to assist in assessing listening to that station. Overall, we estimate that Kismat will achieve listening around the same level as Asian Sound, though principally among older age groups. Equated to the full licence TSA applicable to mainstream stations, Kismat's projected reach among all adults would amount to 2.5% in Year 1 rising to 3.2% in Year 3. By way of comparison, Sunrise London achieved an all adult reach of 3.3% in Q3-2004. Audience Projections Section 105 (A): Page 16
Page 1 and 2: Kismat Radio KISMAT RADIO LIMITED A
Page 3 and 4: General Information Kismat Radio e)
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Page 37 and 38: Kismat Section 105(D): Evidence Of

Kismat FM - Ofcom Licensing

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