BY ORDER OF THE AIR FORCE PAMPHLET 91-215 SECRETARY ...

A2.B.8. THE NEXT MISHAP ASSESSMENT
A2.B.8.1. FORMAL NAME. The next mishap assessment
A2.B.8.2. ALTERNATIVE NAMES. None
A2.B.8.3. PURPOSE. Research has established that there are certain indicators that show a statistically
significant correlation with high risk of mishap involvement. The next mishap assessment uses this
information to assess the likelihood that a given activity or situation will result in a mishap. The ability to
pinpoint risks opens the door to resolution with focused effort.
A2.B.8.4. APPLICATION. The next mishap assessment is an excellent safety standdown day or safety
meeting agenda item. Variations of the next mishap assessment tools exist to support individual self
assessment or for leaders to assess inputs from their subordinates. Because an organization’s risk changes
over time as mission circumstances change, it is useful to repeat the assessment process once every year or
two.
A2.B.8.5. METHOD. There are a variety of next mishap assessment tools. These tools should be used
and locally developed tools should be avoided. Assessments should not be developed locally because the
research necessary to validate the product can not normally be accomplished by anyone other than
specialized professionals. These include:
A2.B.8.5.1. Self assessment tools that are used by individuals and only the user knows the outcome.
A2.B.8.5.2. Leader tools used to assess risk proneness of subordinates.
A2.B.8.5.3. Tools specialized to the aviation arena.
A2.B.8.6. RESOURCES. There are a variety of established next mishap assessment tools. Guidance on
locating these tools can be obtained from the Air Force Safety Center or your local safety office. Other
copyrighted tools are available commercially. Your local safety office can direct you to these items.
A2.B.8.7. COMMENTS. Next mishap assessments are effective tools that allow focus specifically where
the problems are, not on everything. That is the essence of the risk management process.
A2.B.8.8. EXAMPLES. Examples of these tools can be obtained from the sources outlined above.
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