BY ORDER OF THE AIR FORCE PAMPHLET 91-215 SECRETARY ...

A2.A.8. THE CHANGE ANALYSIS
A2.A.8.1. FORMAL NAME. The change analysis
A2.A.8.2. ALTERNATIVE NAMES. None
A2.A.8.3. PURPOSE. Historically change has been an important source of risk in operational processes.
Figure A2.15 illustrates this causal relationship.
Figure A2.15. Change Causation.
Introduce System Stress is Risk controls Risk Losses
change impacted created overcome Increases Increase
A2.A.8.3.1. Some of these changes are planned, but many occur incrementally over time without any
intentional or conscious direction. The change analysis is intended to analyze the hazard implications of
either planned or unplanned changes. Properly used, the change analysis allows the risk management
process to focus only on the changed aspects of the operation. This eliminates the need to reanalyze the
total operation just because a change has occurred in one area. The change analysis is also used to detect
the occurrence of change. By periodically systematically comparing current procedures with previous
procedures, unplanned changes are identified and clear defined. Finally, change analysis is an important
mishap investigation tool. Because many mishaps are due to the injection of change into systems, an
important investigative objective is to identify these changes using the change analysis procedure.
A2.A.8.4. APPLICATION. Change analysis should be routinely used in the following situations.
A2.A.8.4.1. Whenever significant changes are planned in operations in which there is significant mission
risk of any kind. A typical example is the decision to conduct a certain type of operation at night that has
only been done in daylight previously.
A2.A.8.4.2. Periodically, perhaps once a year, in any mission important operation to detect the occurrence
of unplanned changes. A typical example is the many different types of maintenance procedures.
A2.A.8.4.3. As a mishap investigation tool.
A2.A.8.4.4. As the only hazard ID tool required when an operational area has been subjected to in-depth
hazard analysis. The change analysis tool will reveal if any elements exist in the current operation that
were not considered in the previous in-depth analysis.
A2.A.8.5. METHOD. The change analysis is best accomplished using a format such as the sample
worksheet shown at Figure A2.16. The factors in the column on the left side of this tool are intended as a
comprehensive change checklist.
52